Debt Britannia
Peter Hoskin 10:40am
The front cover of today's Mail should be stuck on the wall of every MPs' office in Westminster. It spells out the scale of the national debt burden in the starkest possible terms: £2,000,000,000,000 in big red numerals, with a post-script translating that to £33,000 for every "man, woman and child" in the UK.
Thing is, the Mail's figures - based on the ONS's release yesterday - are probably a bare minimum. We don't yet know full extent of the nationalised banks' liabilities; there's likely to be more debt-heavy government action over the next year or so; and Brown's off-balance sheet ruses will add to the burden faced by taxpayers, whether they're brought into the open or not.
For anyone with ambitions to be part of a future government, it's all a grim reminder of just how constrained they'll be. Debt of at least 147 percent of GDP will require some of the most radical fiscal tightening in British political history.



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Wily Trout
February 20th, 2009 11:16am Report this commentAnd now they're raiding local govt (funded) pensions to prop up the PFI projects.
Chris lancashire
February 20th, 2009 11:21am Report this commentIt's truly remarkable how Britain's national finances have been transformed in 12 short years. From one of the soundest European economies to a total basket case which will take at least 20 years to right.
Only IMF intervention now can prevent the slide accelerating.
Ray
February 20th, 2009 11:40am Report this commentI have a feeling that my grandchildren (as yet unborn) will come to detest this man for the terrible and enduring legacy he will have saddled them with.
Polly and Alice's mum
February 20th, 2009 11:44am Report this commentIf the sum is £33,000 for every man woman and child in Britain, can someone work out how much that is PER TAXPAYER???
Children dont pay tax, and there are an awfull lot of men and women who dont pay tax on their benefits or whatever.
If we knew the sum, per taxpayer, it would have even more impact...
Forlornehope
February 20th, 2009 11:45am Report this commentPerhaps, just perhaps, this will be a sufficient spur to address the whole issue of taxation, pensions and benefits. The current systems are complex, punish where they should incentivise and reward what they should discourage. Unless they are tackled together the disincentives to work, to invest and to save will remain.
Sally Chatterjee
February 20th, 2009 11:52am Report this commentThe trouble is that just as few politicians care, it's still very abstract for voters.
Just as many avoid opening bills and credit card statements, this won't become a real issue until the red letter arrives from the IMF.
No one wants the hair shirt, most will just silently hope someone else is lumbered with the bill of repaying the debt.
GS London
February 20th, 2009 11:53am Report this commentScorched Earth.
In the words of Guido, please form an orderly queue outside Australia House.
Peter Cheshire
February 20th, 2009 12:06pm Report this comment"Debt of at least 147 percent of GDP will require some of the most radical fiscal tightening in British political history."
About time too! By the time of the general election in 2010 the UK will have had a 13 year orgy of public spending masquerading as "investment" to use Brown's much-abused term. Most of the public sector is bloated and grossly inefficient and, what's worse, ineffective in that so much of the spending doesn't deliver real benefits. Most users of public services can testify to that.
There will be pain but the political challenge is to ensure as much as possible of the pain falls on the under-employed and under-effective beneficiaries of Brown's "investment" and not on areas of real need.
Perry McCormack
February 20th, 2009 12:30pm Report this commentA good car journey game at this time of year used to be counting how many new number plates you could spot. Its nearly the end of February and I haven't seen a single 09 plate yet.
Daniel
February 20th, 2009 12:36pm Report this commentSurely this figure is if the banks' balance sheets are entirely wiped out? This is a contingent figure, no?
So, we have to expect some losses from the banks, but not amounting to their entire value.
Of course, we don't yet know if there are further undiscovered liabilities - so this figure doesn't really mean all that much.
We are, however, screwed.
Thanks you meglomaniac, incontinent control freak . Leave us alone!
Keith
February 20th, 2009 12:43pm Report this commentBrown's insitence on a review of MP'S pension arrangements is an obvious presage to similar reviews that will be required of all Public Sector pensions with the obvious selling point being "we've shown the way - you must follow"
Everyone who thinks about it to any extent knows that the public sector has got to shrink quickly to ge the Govt. finances heading towards respectability, why are the Conservatives failing to hammer this home. Do they really think we won't vote for them if they tell the truth?
Bluebottle
February 20th, 2009 12:50pm Report this commentPerry-that might have something to do with the fact that 09 plates are not released until March.
kinglear
February 20th, 2009 12:56pm Report this commentI haven't seen any either. Mind you, why would you buy a new car unless you got it for 50% off? That is beginning to happen though...
David
February 20th, 2009 12:56pm Report this comment"Debt of at least 147 percent of GDP will require some of the most radical fiscal tightening in British political history"
Which is a shame considering that the economy needs precisely the opposite.
IanB
February 20th, 2009 1:10pm Report this commentPerry, that's because the plate change doesn't happen until March.
Novus
February 20th, 2009 1:22pm Report this commentPerry, that's because 09 doesn't start until March. :)
MahatmaCoat
February 20th, 2009 2:25pm Report this commentSally Chaterjee - Well said. The British are past masters at avoiding reality, economic or otherwise. Not until the Martians, or whoever, are landing in the village square do they wake up.
Duyfken
February 20th, 2009 2:34pm Report this commentWe shall forever remain in your debt Mr Brown.
Hawkeye
February 20th, 2009 2:50pm Report this commentPolly & Alice's Mum - As a rule of thumb, about half the population are employed so on a per TAXPAYER basis that is £66,000 per taxpayer.
Of course, not all those in employment pay tax, but you get the idea.
Forlornehope
February 20th, 2009 3:38pm Report this commentThe ONS rules require that the liabilities are put on the government debt but are not netted off against assets as on a corporate balance sheet. It is not completely horrific, merely very, very bad.
Anus mundi
February 20th, 2009 4:28pm Report this commentIn fairness to Perry, I haven't seen that many '58' number plates either.
Average voter
February 20th, 2009 4:48pm Report this commentI am a taxpayer supporting my wife and four children - that means a debt of £200K to me. It just so happens that is the same as my mortgage. So I'm really pleased with the government.
Pat McGroin
February 20th, 2009 5:06pm Report this commentnext election , labour is toast! browns name will be dirt like the left believe thatcher's is.
Nick
February 20th, 2009 6:03pm Report this commentThe 2 trillion is still one of those tractor production numbers.
If I give money to a bank to save for my retirement, they record that as a liability they have to pay back.
The goverment takes money for my retirement, and records no such thing. It books it as income, and then spends it.
The state pension, the state second pension, and the state employee pensions should appear on the books too.
If you think 2 trillion is bad, its peanuts compared to the true figure.
Their standard excuse is that other countries have their head in the sand, so we don't have to frighten the electorate. ie. They are lying.
Time to stock up on some more gold.
Herbert Thornton
February 20th, 2009 6:10pm Report this commentThe British government has created a hole and the entire economy is falling into it.
The government is going to be tempted to stop the currency falling into the hole along with the economy by printing enough of it to fill the hole. If it is going to do that, anybody who owns British bonds or cash or securities will be wise to turn it into something tangible and lasting - buildings, land, gold, or durable goods of some sort. Even tangible things that have a little durability (e.g. a new car or furniture or tins of food) will at least keep their value better than the currency.
On the other hand, if the government doesn't print the extra money, a great many institutions and businesses and the government itself will be unable to meet their obligations - e.g. the obligation to pay any interest on bonds or similar securities - and the country will simply default like Iceland.
So which is worse - default, which means simply not paying the country's obligations, or printing increasingly worthless money in order to pretend that it is paying what is owed?
The problem is that the hole has already been dug. Whether the hole takes the currency with it or not, Britain is going to have to eventually dig its way out - somehow.
Sadly, both Gordon Brown's Labour Party, and David Cameron's Tories, completely refuse to recognise that the combination of policies that they have both supported have amounted to many years of enthusiastic hole digging - yet they still see nothing wrong with it.
Britain desperately needs a completely new Party and new political leader determined to re-build the country by replacing the foolish policies that have led to this situation with fundamentally new ones.
So far as I can see, the only Party and politician answering that description is the BNP led by Nick Griffin.
mac
February 20th, 2009 6:30pm Report this commentAnd Martin Bright's proposal is to have Balls in No11 - and his wife installed next door! (See "The Adrian Mole Generation Should Step up to the Plate".)
Whimsical Friday provocation to coffee housers? No, it was meant seriously judging by his hissy fit later in the blog comments, after uniformly scornful responses from coffee housers - who became 'you people' in classic New Labour Mandalese.
TGF UKIP
February 20th, 2009 10:42pm Report this commentThanks Mac, I don't usually trouble myself with Bright for the same reason I don't read Korski. If I really wanted to acquaint myself with their sort of take I'd be on the Guardian blog.
As it is I can't think of anything which better expresses the direction of the Speccie than we lose Mark Steyn and get Bright and Korski.
Why oh why is there no conservative media voice in this country?
TGF UKIP
February 21st, 2009 4:40pm Report this commentPolly and Alice's mum, most recent figure I've seen was that there are around 31 million taxpayers (and around 25 million households)
Pete will no doubt corrrect if I'm miles out.
Archie
February 22nd, 2009 3:34am Report this commentThe Speccer appears to be following the Telegraph down the left-wing tubes. I foresaw doom when Mark Steyn was relieved of duty.
Come back Lord Black, all is forgiven!
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