If Cameron wants a second term, he needs to level with the public now
Fraser Nelson 11:20am
Might David Cameron be a one-term wonder? The pendulum of British politics does tend to move slowly and as little as 18 months ago the Tories could expect two terms at least. But the economic stars are aligning in a way that will make sensible Conservatives shudder. Cuts – real ones, not the type Gordon Brown accuses the Tories of – are looking inevitable. Those Dublin protests could be coming here next. Brown may borrow just enough to avoid making cuts, leaving Cameron to burst the public spending bubble. I outline this scenario in my News of the World column today. I’m not saying it’s likely, just that it should be taken seriously. Here are a few factors to consider.
There are many ways to avoid this, but the most important thing is honesty. Much worse is in store for Brown, Cameron will win and he should expend some political capital now telling it like it is. His plan to spend less than Labour’s 1% spending growth is, in effect, a plan to copy Labour’s spending plan. It's unaffordable, and he knows it. If he does intend to make cuts, Labour’s message will hardly change –Brown has been saying ‘Tory cuts’ since 1994. He’s cried wolf on this, the electorate will be bored of hearing it. And given every household is making cuts, they should ask, why not the government?1) China may save Brown from the IMF. There’s a reason Hillary Clinton is in China – to kiss the ring of her new creditors. China still has a massive savings surplus and nowhere to put the cash other than government-issued securities. In another era, the US and the UK would face a buyers’ strike – no one would buy their bonds, or demand huge risk premiums. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the imbalance of the East Asian savings glut (which many blame for the Western debt crisis) is now encouraging government profligacy in the way it used to encourage private borrowing. The cash is there: mountains of it. So Brown may well be able to keep finding buyers to enable state spending at about £100bn a year more than he’s generating in tax. The IMF bailout scenario Osbrone has spoken about is indeed real – but it might happen after the election.2) Cuts are inevitable Even if the Chinese would keep lending us money, it is immoral to keep saddling the next generation with debts just because the current generation didn’t want to face reality. As we saw last week, the tax base has collapsed in Britain. Even Darling’s PBR suggested it would be 2014 before the tax base caught up with spending – I’d say we’re now looking at 2017, perhaps even later. State spending is the road runner that has jumped over the cliff, but has not yet looked down. The government is still in denial, as we see in the Sunday Star today (not online) which reports that Lord Mandelson spent £80,000 redecorating his office.
3) Cuts can be deeply unpopular. Even Schwarzenegger is afraid to make these types of cuts in the nearly-bust state of California. His compromise, signed a few days ago, gives half-baked tax rises and half-baked cuts leaving an un-tackled deficit. The Irish government is facing protest marches right now. You can get the unions will attack Cameron with every piece of energy they can muster. So might the Tories be left to wield this hatchet amidst massive protests?
4) The economy may not rebound The more we learn about this crisis, the less likely a 2010/11 rebound is. I’ve blogged before about how the UK economy could be turning Japanese, with a decade-long (so-called L-shaped) downturn. Remember, sharp tax hikes are slated for 2010 and these may push the economy into a second recession. In the 1980s and 1990s we had inflation-induced recessions that are easy to cure. Debt-induced busts take years to heal.
5) Saviours are not always thanked at the time. Remember how uncertain the first few years of Thatcher’s government were. The electorate almost spat out the medicine. If it were not for the Labour/SDP split and the Falklands war, she may well have lost after the first term. And she was entirely honest with the public about what she would do – whereas the Cameroons are in danger of being overly optimistic. Their current spending plan – no real terms cuts – is, I believe, unsustainable. If Osborne is not careful, his message will be ‘read my lips – no new cuts.’ We all know how well that worked for George HW Bush.
If Osborne intends to load up the nation with £100bn of debt a year, as Brown does, he should say so – and admit that the country would be at the mercy of the Chinese and Arab buyers. If he’s going to make cuts, he needs to explain clearly why. There are precedents for thriving in a downturn. Roosevelt’s popularity increased, even though economy nosedived. John Howard won time over in Australia after its debt crisis. It can be done, but honesty is the prerequisite. The ‘more for less’ agenda, the moral and economic case for curbing state spending, has to be made now.
Previous
Rhoda Klapp
February 22nd, 2009 11:58am Report this comment'Honesty is the best policy'
The Gods of the Copy Book Headings with fire and thunder return.
(Quoted from memory, might not be quite right).
AndyLeeds
February 22nd, 2009 12:00pm Report this commentThe only option is for Cameron and Osborne to tell it like it is. Gordon the Moron has bankrupted the State and the only thing we can do is cut the size of the State big time. The answer to the charge of 'Tory Cuts' is simple: 'Tells where you get the money from for this ?' Use Mrs Ts housekeeping philosophy. The public aren't stupid.
Chris
February 22nd, 2009 12:05pm Report this commentWhy should cuts be unpopular? The conservatives could save vast billions by getting rid if ID cards and all the rest of the paraphernalia of labour's police state. They could do us all a favour by sacking the many thousands of vastly overpaid jobsworths, particularly in local government, who blight all our lives. The labour government has thrown enormous amounts of money at the state sector without any improvement in services. The total collapse of the the public sector in the face of the recent snow, when it needed actually to do something but decided collectively not to bother, must have driven home to everybody just how useless all this spending has been. It should be possible to cut state spending to a fraction of the current level without really losing anything.
Mitch
February 22nd, 2009 12:11pm Report this commentCameron should say he will put Brown and that egomaniac Blair on trial for treason.
An inquiry into the crash by someone trustworthy (if anyone can be found without an interest).
Jim
February 22nd, 2009 12:17pm Report this commentI don't see Cameron leveling with the people, he hasn't done so far. Examples abound, particularly with European law being introduced which he has attacked, but not said he would have to have introduced it too. He is economically ignorant, which doesn't inspire confidence. I'm still staggered nobody high up in the Tories saw this crisis coming.
He hasn't stood up for our liberties, nor is he really addressing peoples concerns over immigration etc.
We won't be out of this crisis much before 2023, the bust equals the boom. So the political map os going to be redrawn. My money is on the BNP benefitting most. But it's anybody's guess, there are too many variables, except that Cameron hasn't demonstrated the qualities needed so far.
Short the UK
February 22nd, 2009 12:17pm Report this commentFraser,
The hope of going L shaped and Japanese has passed. We are, I believe, going A shaped and Argentinean.
The future is extremely bleak.
Strikes & Riots will be commonplace as the economy sinks.
It would be better for the Tories to lose the next election unless the IMF are called in before.
I think the ruling elite are morally, spiritually and financially bankrupt. We see evidence of this by the day...
The public have become addicted to house price profit.
In the 70s North Sea Oil & Gas saved us. In recent years the City kept the show on the road, Tony & Gordon went on a massive spending & debt spree. Jim Rogers is right "the Pound is finished." It is brutal but totally true.
Expect to see a 60% tax rate up from 40% and a massive departure of wealth creators from the country - the City will be eviscerated.
The only hope for National Salvation is for a government of National Unity. This way the Public Sector can be slashed back and regulations on business abolished, so that wealth creators can get busy hiring, firing and trying people. We in the West have lived in a bubble of debt and thought we had created the wealth we enjoyed. It was a bubble based on our currency and once that pop's then the poverty of our economy becomes apparent and our ability to live to such a high standard is dead. We must do all we can to protect our currency. The madness of huge borrowings and the printing of money will destroy our currency. There will be no way back a la North Sea energy. The ruling elite are taking the "biggest" gamble that this is a mid-cycle slowdown and that pump priming will reflate the economy. I believe strongly that they will fail and irreparably damage our economy, thus leading us to become an Undeveloping Nation.
One can see already the madness descending on the body politic with the insane ideas being floated by Harriet Harman to see how polarised politics will become. Once the currency totally collapses the tension will go off the richter scale.
I think Iain Martin in the Telegraph is the only mainstream writer who really sees the incredible dangers.
This will become a National Emergency. Looking at our elite I have no confidence that they can avert the A.
There is no way back....
God bless Blighty.
strapworld
February 22nd, 2009 12:25pm Report this commentCameron is a one dimensional politician. He does not have 'charisma'. If and, I agree with you Mr. Nelson, what we see in Ireland occurs here, and it always does when it is a Tory government.
So Cameron has got to PROMISE NOW what Boris did in London and that is to have a full audit of Government debt and publish it.
Then he must say that difficult decisions will have to be made!
And the one, which he has avoided, is the question of the EU.
Can we afford to be paying so much towards, what is, a totalitarian organisation made up of former communists and left of centre socialists?
Surely, as a Nation we have to rediscover ourselves, kick off this benefit regime created by Labour and start producing good quality goods for export. We could and should rediscover our Comonwealth friends and look towards Canada and the USA. The EU is a millstone around the neck of this great country and the main reason why we have lost all our engineering skills.
Cameron should recreate this Country! But is he BIG enough for that job?
One term will not cure anything. That is why Cameron has got to be totally honest NOW!
JGS
February 22nd, 2009 12:46pm Report this commentAn excellent piece. Let's hope that the Tories act on your advice, and clearly spell out what has gone wrong and what, painful though it may be, is necessary to put things right. My feeling is that people are looking for honesty and despair of getting it from Gordon Brown.
Ted C
February 22nd, 2009 12:54pm Report this commentTiming is what matters - I don't believe Cameron needs to say much now as increasingly over next few months the country will become aware that there is no easy cut free future.
Wait until after the Budget when the position, however Darling squirms to hide it, will be apparent, then drive home the massive deficits being created and that these are not short term.
People then will want to know what can be done, then tax rises and spending cuts, the inevitability of them and who you can trust to do them in your best interests can be at the forefront.
Sarah
February 22nd, 2009 1:09pm Report this commentUnfortunately cuts will definitely have to be made by the incoming Conservative government. They won't be because of Conservatives though.
David Cameron does need to make clear now that any cuts when he takes over will be as direct result of poor leadership and even poorer planning by Gordon Brown while being unelected PM and as Chancellor.
Verity
February 22nd, 2009 1:12pm Report this commentIF the Conservatives squeeze their way to victory at the next election - and I don't think they will - of course Cameron will be a one-termer. His inadequacies, already apparent to many of us, will be spotlit. He is not leadership material. He has no burning vision. Just the elevation of David - who, taking a cue from "Tony" Blair, got his PR people to style him "Dave".
WIlliam Blake's Ghost
February 22nd, 2009 1:29pm Report this commentI'm not convinced anyone knows exactly how bad it is. Much of it is out in the open but perhaps not all of it.
Whilst I agree Cameron must be open and frank he will only get one bite at the cherry. If he gets that wrong by speaking too early and underestimating the problem it will in turn and bite back at him.
My feeling is that he needs to wait a little longer until they can be fairly certain that all the really bad news is out in the open before he can be frank with the electorate.
Browns failure was the Bank Bailout I, by making the wrong choices initially he has finished of his Premiership. Cameron needs to make sure he doesn't do the same before his Premiership is even guaranteed, let alone started.
Roger
February 22nd, 2009 1:39pm Report this commentA huge portion of Public Spending is pure waste and there are massive productivity gains to be had across the board. There is no reason why Council Taxes could not be reduced 5% PA for each of the next 5 years and improve the quality of delivery, but this takes a "Can Do" attitude.
Donna
February 22nd, 2009 1:49pm Report this commentslightly depressingly (no offence), for once I find myself agreeing wholeheartedly with Verity.
The whole point of having Cameron as leader disappeared when Blair finally bowed out. We need to start looking around for a serious contender who is capable of being honest with the electorate, and of making tough decisions when the time comes. 'Dave' just isn't that man.
TGF UKIP
February 22nd, 2009 2:02pm Report this commentWell, congratulations Fraser, you're catching up at last to the point I've been making for the past nine months or so.
We put it slightly differently, of course, with my repeated point being that you can't run and seek a mandate as Blue Labour and hope to then turn round and govern as a real conservative. Your mandate simply will not exist which will be vigorously pointed out to you by the massed ranks of the unions, the BBC and the rest of the broadcast media, a goodly slice of the Press and a revitalized socialist Real Labour Party.
Now I must admit that my posts to this effect have usually prompted the customary mockery from your aged alter ego, Tiberius, who invariably tells me that I simply don't grasp Cameron High Command's master strategy but of course this is where the real division on this website lies.
Tiberius, yourself and perhaps a majority of Coffee Housers subscribe to what I have often termed the Ugly Duckling theory of your dearly beloved Dave - that the SocDem, Blue Labour ugly duckling is, on winning the GE, going to metamorphose into some handsome, truly conservative Conservative swan.
To which theory my rejoinder is - dream on! Since December 2005 Dave has provided not the slightest evidence for such optimism even when given opportunity after opportunity to do so (I simply refer you back to the Marr January interview again.)
With Dave what you see is what you get - a typically patrician, paternalistic, Big State, SocDem, One Nation Tory which is probably why he and The Clique elicit so little enthusiasm from the British voter.
John
February 22nd, 2009 2:12pm Report this commentThere "Have to be Cuts"? I take it then, it's given gospel for the conservatives, and an article of faith for Spectator readers, that Keynesian Economic Stimulation isn't the correct choice? Most economists tend to disagree.
Deep cuts on public spending at this point can only make the economy shrink faster. Which will reduce the amount made in taxes, which will make deficits *larger*!
Yes, spending more now means more debt in the future. But shrinking the economy by making drastic cuts will increase the debt too from tax shortfalls!
Country scale economics don't work like household economics. Paying down the debt in bad times shrinks the economy, and actually makes the debt larger in the long run. We have to wait till the economy is back on it's feet before we start trying to make a surplus.
Rex Burr
February 22nd, 2009 2:20pm Report this commentThe next government will NEED the cooperation and support of the electorate and will have to project the honest feeling that it is on their side and feels their pain.
This will be a difficult task for a Tory Government, as Tories are still seen, by the working class, as friends of big business and the wealthy and privileged. Their representation in parliament does nothing to dispel that impression.
While Brown is totally discredited for his handling of the economy and his support for, ‘Innovation in Financial Services’ his assertions that the Tories have been pushing for even greater deregulation is hitting home.
While Cameron may be a ‘One Nation Conservative’ I doubt that his troops are.
The nonsense of recent years has fooled many of the working class into thinking that they are now middle class but that will change as reality hits home.
Kevyn Bodman
February 22nd, 2009 2:46pm Report this commentHonesty is the best policy, in politics as in life, and for a number of reasons.
If a party is honest in saying what must be done and it wins then it has a right to do those things.
In the absence of that honesty no matter how wise the policies might be they are not legitimate if the electorate has been deceived about them.
We are in a mess, and it's worse than it should be because of the continued borrowing.
Here is what I would do if I was in No. 10, and I'd say it LOUD in the election campaign:
Scrap ID cards and the database state on the first day.No compensation to firms involved in it; they can pay the price for having their sale rumbled and rejected.
Organise a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, timescale as for planning a General Election, organisation to start immediately.
No more taxpayer bailouts for failing businesses, from day one.
Commission a trusted figure to scrap 80% of Quangos within 6 months.
It wouldn't much matter which 80%, no damage would be done and then the other 20% could follow in the rest of the year.
Make huge cuts in the public sector payroll and reduce taxes.
Commission Bishop Hill, the noted blogger who has recently written on this matter,or someone of like mind, to recommend which legal attacks on civil liberties to repeal; report due in one month, legislation one month after that.
Stop all non-EU immigration immediately.
Within a year we'd be able to decide on immigration from countries still in the EU because by then I think there'd be a huge head of steam for UK withdrawal.
Increase State benefits for old people and wounded soldiers. DRASTICALLY cut them for everyone else.
Publish the accounts of the Blair/Brown years and denounce them as the liars they have been.
Remove the ban on Geert Wilders on day one.
Stop all concessions to any minority groups, no blind eye to demonstrations inciting murder or violence.Only one minority group would be bothered by this change in policy but it's time not to care what they think.
I think these policies, adopted by a major party would lead to significant victory.
Cameron won't do it for a number of reasons including:
1) he's a wimp
2)he doesn't want to repudiate Lisbon
3)he doesn't understand how much and for how long taxes will be exorbitant if he doesn't stop wasting our money now
4)whatever happens to the country he'll be OK in the cosy European 'statesmen's ' club and his interests, like those of so many politicians, don't coincide with the voters' intersts.
Rhoda Klapp
February 22nd, 2009 2:53pm Report this commentIs it time for me to ask for the five good reasons again?
And also how many Labour actions will he reverse?
If he can't answer those simple questions, he may not get one term.
oldtimer
February 22nd, 2009 3:31pm Report this commentWhat makes you think that the Chinese will save Brown? The UK is of footling significance to them compared with the USA. Foreign investors have already lost a packet on UK investments and gilts because of the devaluation of sterling. Brown`s only way out is to print more money (in the form of gilts), and to force feed the banks by a mixture of regulation (raise the capital ratios) and the exercise of shareholder power (via RBS and Lloyds). It is crude and it is brutal. It is the price he is willing for the rest of us to pay for his short term political survival.
I agree with others above that the only course for Cameron and co is brutal honesty. First there needs to be the repetition of blaming Brown for the catastrophe we are in. The also needs to be a statement of the broad measures needed to repair the national economy - reducing the debt burden over time, getting public expenditure under control and providing the right incentive structure to re-energise the wealth producing sectors of the economy.
GV
February 22nd, 2009 3:39pm Report this commentGreat article, Fraser and it pains me to say that I still have no idea what the Party intends to put in its Manifesto. I can't blame them for that: there's no election date set and any policies they do espouse end up being adapted & adopted by the govt (not necessarily 'a good thing'). Labour lies through it's teeth and denies everything because they've had too many spinners on board. I'm sick of reading and hearing 'the govt dismissed ..' 'it's the right thing to do (now adapted to 'it is right' vide Jackboots Jacqui on AM this morning)... 'we're getting on with the job' etcetera, etcetera, etcetera while we float into oblivion.
A deal has been done somewhere. Blair/Brown/EU and Cameron knows about it. The people don't and that's why the extent of EU legislation within our country is a tinder box just waiting for a match.
Cameron needs to decide whether he leads a party which is pro the British people or not. After all, why would any British voter elect someone who wasn't pro-British?
I'm sorry. It all comes back to the EU, yet again. Cameron is a personable chap and connects well with live audiences but we need a clear indication of direction.
As we all know, the Labour Party's Manifesto was declared to be a document which had 'no legal expectation' of being fulfilled. Has that set a precedent for all manifestos from all Parties?
I doubt there is a political party in the land that will stand up, honestly, directly and unambiguously, and tell us what their aims are.
Athesius the Facilitator
February 22nd, 2009 3:50pm Report this commentSomebody previously remarked that nobody in the Tory party saw the crash coming. John Redwood did but nobody was listening. The people on this sight should read his blog. It is quite informative. Others also saw the crash coming namely myself and a few of the other "lower deck lawyers" that I drink with down at my local community centre.
David Cameron is a good guy who is trying to win the next election for the Tory's and the country. To do that he has to flannel a bit and basically keep out of trouble by keeping the Labour party outriders (and the press) of his back. It's hopeless trying to speculate what he will do and how radical he will be but I am keeping my fingers crossed. He's our only hope. Verity; learn to love him.
David
February 22nd, 2009 4:05pm Report this commentThatcher was honest about what she would do, don't remember that. In 1979 the Conservatives strongly denied that they would raise taxes and cut public spending. Any suggestion that VAT would be almost doubled was attacked most stridently. The Howe budget of '81 came as a shock to everyone, including most Tory MP's
Tiberius
February 22nd, 2009 4:13pm Report this commentRhoda: I gave you five reasons on an earlier occasion that you asked that question (well four actually because another poster gave the first).
TGF: you need to move on, mate, because the whole economic landscape is a million miles away from what it was nine months ago, which is why Cameron is right to consult far and wide and not just with previous Tory Chancellors.
As for the SocDem, patrician stuff, does that really square with Gove's education reforms, elected police chiefs, and the policy review on localism? And would the current shaking up of sleepy social service departments be going on if Cameron hadn't skewered NuLab over Baby P?
I certainly agree with Fraser over honesty, but as with all these announcements, timing is the key. If one thinks Cameron can do no good, then whenever he says anything, it will be wrong. For the rest, it is a question of trusting his judgement, a quality which has brought him and his Party a long way from the dog-days of 1997 to 2005.
Duyfken
February 22nd, 2009 4:30pm Report this comment"Cometh the hour, cometh the man" - or woman. The hour has certainly come but nowhere do I see the (wo)man in any of the front-runners, left or right. Sadly, Verity's summation of "Dave" seems spot on.
Ray
February 22nd, 2009 4:40pm Report this commentHonesty is the best policy... more so in a mature democracy.
That way if the British people can't face the truth - and thus reject Cameron for telling it - then they deserve everything they get.
Verity
February 22nd, 2009 4:45pm Report this commentI heartily concur with every word Kevyn Bodman wrote.
GV writes: "A deal has been done somewhere. Blair/Brown/EU and Cameron knows about it." Cameron's complicit.
Athesius the Facilitator - No. Cameron is not our only hope. In fact, he's the major fly in the ointment. He's a terrible, terrible leader and I do not get the sense from him that he is honest. Our only hope is to lose the next election, freshen our drinks, keep the ice trays filled and sit back and watch the next socialist government implode messily and wait for the vote of No Confidence from the new Tory Leader.
Rhoda Klapp
February 22nd, 2009 4:49pm Report this commentA the F, I really wanted the four missing answers to come from the party itself, I know various people have their own list. (The first reason is obvious to all).
I now add question 2, what will he reverse? I'm not aware of anything, except things like ID cards which he will not implement if in time to stop them. Even in this case he needs to make clear to any private sector contractor that the contract will end without compensation if the cards are implemented before a tory victory.
Andy
February 22nd, 2009 4:50pm Report this commentDon't treat the electorate like mushrooms (kept in the dark etc). I suspect the true picture is even worse than we guess; once the full damage is known, the cost and rationale of repairs to Labour's débacle should be explained clearly and simply. After all, if you're going in for a major operation the surgeon talks to you about it to win your confidence by dispelling your ignorance, doesn't he?
Mushroom
February 22nd, 2009 5:49pm Report this commentCameron may be complicit. The Labour Party, after years in Opposition opposing the EU are definitely complicit in all the laws and regulations they have brought in since 1997.
The fact is the Unions voted 'for' and the Labour Party voted 'against' an EU.
Archie
February 22nd, 2009 6:21pm Report this commentFinally, more people here are acknowledging the wisdom of a few, i.e. the EU is a complete disaster and the sooner we're gone from it, the better, which leaves David Cameron nowhere!
GV
February 22nd, 2009 7:22pm Report this comment"The people don't [know] and that's why the extent of EU legislation within our country is a tinder box just waiting for a match.
TGF UKIP
February 22nd, 2009 7:49pm Report this commentTiberius, I'm afraid you and your teenage alter ego are simply wrong with your world-weary super sophisticated approach to Dave and the fundamental question as to who and what he is.
All you need to do to convince yourself is simply shunt the calendar about a bit so you have Dave born in October 1936 instead of 1966.
You then have Dave in the 1980's in his forties in the Thatcher government. At this point all you need do is ask yourself where would he have stood. As "one of us" with the union taming, tax cutting, council house selling Parkinsons, Tebbits, Ridleys etc or would he have been with the Pyms, Priors, Gilmours mumbling about catchee catchee softlee monkey, unions part of the great estate of the realm, too far too quickly and "that dreadful woman."
Once you have honestly answered that question old friend you'll know exactly who and what Dave is, was and always will be.
As for what appears to be your crunch punch "It is a question of trusting his judgement, a quality which has brought him and his Party a long way from the dog-days of 1997-2005."
Which obviously begs the question of where your Tories are now and where they might have been under a different leadership.
Where they are now is enjoying a very soft headline opinion poll lead of c15% (only 7% in the latest marginals poll) which lead is hugely misleading because of the degree of skewing due to Dave's enormous lead in his heartland south. Even then though the details of these polls show very little enthusiasm for a Cameron Tory government and on the vital question of economy handling the best he and Osborne can achieve is neck and neck with Gordon and Darling. Indeed so soft is their lead that it is less than four months since their headline lead was only single figures and who is to say it won't be single figures again in a few more months time.
Now I think it only fair to remind you at this point that your idols are opposition politicians opposing the worst, most incompetent, most negligent and most corrupt government of modern times at whose head is the most evil and sinister politician of living memory.
Is where the Tories are now the best that can or should be expected of their leadership?
And this is where we really do come down to the divide between us for at this point you invariably retreat to "well nobody else could have done what Dave's done and brought the Party so far." To which I'm afraid my answer this time, old mate, is bollocks.
Long before this banking crisis, it was painfully obvious to so many that the British Government was spending and borrowing excessively and that it was all going to end in tears (£812bn debt in 2012 even before this lot.) So the question becomes if at the head of the Conservative Party there had been a conservative with a credible and authoritative figure as Shadow Chancellor (and there's a change!) consistently pointing out that the Labour Governement was spending and borrowing excessively and would bring ruin to taxpayers the Conservative Party would now be enjoying great credibilty because it could honestly say "we told you so and we have a different analysis and a radically different path ahead."
Instead of which your mates cannot credibly say this because for the past three years they have been promising to match and exceed (let us not forget the extra £28bn for the bottomless pit) Labour spending and, by direct implication Labour borrowing.
Sorry, Tiberius old friend, but your idol Dave has been and is a disaster for the Conservative Party. By trying to live up to being the self-proclaimed Heir to Blair he forsook any convinctions he may have had and has ended up convincing so very few outside this fanzine and his heartland Home Counties.
Meanwhile, what is it with you and your teenage alter ego about Gove. Despite Fraser's voluminous postings on these "reforms" they seem to me to be nothing more than Blair/Adonis would have put their names to and the fact that schols cannot be run for profit nor be allowed to select or screen says a lot about what an ideology and conviction free party the Cameron Tories are. Now if they were to promise to dismantle and re-construct the teacher training establishment I might take them seriously.
And as for Rhoda's five reasons, I believe she may be referring back to Robert Simpson's winning entry in Pete Hoskins' Christmas competition which was to come up with a New Year's Resolution for Dave.
Robert's winning entry was simply to ask Dave to come up with five core reasons to vote Conservative. That was published on 27th and now at the end of February we're still waiting.
"Five core reasons"! If only Robert had asked for five waffly green reasons he would have had them by midnight 27/12/08.
Athesius the Facilitator
February 22nd, 2009 8:23pm Report this commentVerity: Says 'our only hope is to loose the next election and freshen our drinks and watch the next socialist government implode'. How stupid is that?
I put this Country first another stale useless bunch of half wits carrying around their ideological baggage would be to much to take; so they must be gotten rid of, even if Verity doesn't like the "cut of Cameron's jib" m'hearties.
Alexei
February 22nd, 2009 8:33pm Report this commentNice to see Verity saying something different for once.
Bryan
February 22nd, 2009 9:41pm Report this commentIf you want power, the first task is to get it. The how may not matter if it turns out that you know how to use it.
The problem at the moment is that nobody knows what to do. Those who are in power are doing SOMETHING without any clear idea of the consequences. It's like a sudden bereavement - everybody rushes about baking cakes, making pots of tea, anything to fill the vaccuum.
Cameron has been a lucky politician, coming to the leadership when he did and having Brown as his clunking opponent. Perhaps his luck will hold.
If he does form a government he will need all his powers of persuasion to explain to people why the government has to do what it will have to do. That message will be credible if he has an organised, efficient and competent team of ministers who have a strategy and a purpose.
After this cabinet of teenagers, pilferers and never-wozzers, I for one will welcome straightforward managerial competence.
Susan Hill
February 22nd, 2009 10:34pm Report this commentI never understand why it is said to be so difficult to cut government spending. Any of us here on C.H. could tell them.
First you make a list of proper jobs that deliver public services - in no particular order, doctors, nurses, teachers, firemen, dustmen, prison officers, tax collectors (has to be done).. You look at cutting out any actual WASTE in those services but essentially you keep them and fund them properly.
You then remove at least 50% of management in the NHS and similar. AT LEAST.
You cut out all outside management consultants, all quangos and all the Guardian-advertised non-jobs - we all know the ones I mean.
You disband the Arts Council and cancel the OLympics, you save all money ear-marked for the global warming aka climate change that isn`t actually happening, though you do further initiatives to conserve our own countryside and make sure our air and waterways are unpolluted.
In a perfect world, you`d save a whole lot more by getting out of the EU.
But no one will ever dare.
There is a whole lot more that could be done of course but it might be a step to the right too far for the Cameroons.
Graham
February 23rd, 2009 1:59am Report this commentI really don't understand the point of ideological baggage. Surely we want political expediency, a "what ever works" approach?
Verity
February 23rd, 2009 7:02pm Report this commentSusan Hill - Works for me.
hadrian
February 23rd, 2009 11:48pm Report this commentWe may not know how bad it is, as another poster points out here, but we DO know it's NOT good!! How we expect a bankrupt nation and government to get us out of this quick style beats me. The Tories MUST tell us straight how bad it is and that if national austerity is not applied it'll get far, far worse than even our worst imaginings. It takes great leadership to both face this AND get others to face it too. In a way if the Tories lost yet again, it'd be a close escape for them as the Bungler himself'd be forced to soldier on with ever decreasing excuses for his profligacy. However for the coyntry's sake we must pray fervently that a far more sensible rightish government get in.
Verity
February 24th, 2009 2:08am Report this commentHadrian - You've surrendered!
"However for the coyntry's sake we must pray fervently that a far more sensible rightish government get in."
Not "rightish". Right. Freedom. Liberty. Wealth creation. Eschew welfare!
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