Why Osborne is playing it right on 45p tax
James Forsyth 12:36pm
The 45p tax rate for those earning over £150,000 is a political measure not a fiscal one; calculations by the Institute for Fiscal Studies show that it will raise virtually no revenue. Labour desperately wanted to create a dividing line with the Tories over the issue: Labour want to raise taxes on the wealthiest few, the Tories want to cut services for the many. At the time of the PBR, the Tories sensibly avoided this elephant trap.
Now, George Osborne’s remarks that the 45p rate will be “difficult to avoid” have caused a storm. Tim Montgomerie has declared that “George Osborne needs to get a grip” and warned, “Tax rises must be the last resort, not, as it appears, the first resort.” I agree with the second of Tim’s statements but actually think Osborne's political judgement is right on the 45p rate.
If Osborne committed the Tories to a repeal of the 45p rate, he would be just where Labour want him: they would insist that he explain what would be cut to pay for this. Now, I know that this is a daft argument—less than £1.6 billion doesn’t amount to a hill of beans in public spending terms—but it is potentially politically potent. Far better, for the Tories to under promise and over deliver on this.



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Denis Cooper
March 21st, 2009 1:18pm Report this commentOsborne should have waved this aside, dismissing it with a few words like "That's a relatively minor issue" - which it is - and then changed the subject to present the Tory party's substantive proposals on what should be done to avert the impending economic catastrophe.
The Watcher
March 21st, 2009 2:07pm Report this commentI actually think Labour could well have handed Cameron his "Clause 4 moment." A Tory government increasing taxes on the wealthy would be a hugely symbolic step.Cameron and Osborne's first priority should be to prevent the NIC hike which would adversely affect those on the bottom of the pay scales. Hitting the rich to pay for that may go down well with the voters.
Simon
March 21st, 2009 2:09pm Report this commentGood God James well said. Whats heppening to this blog? I remember the days when u and ur pals were out doing Con Home in Dave is a traitor stakes!
oldtimer
March 21st, 2009 2:20pm Report this commentI agree that Osborne is correct not to dismiss 45p out of hand - that would just invite the sterile riposte that we could expect from Brown and co.
It is is, on its own, an irrelevance if you believe, as I do, that taxation needs root and branch reform. Tinkering around the edges will not do. Reform is needed to simplify the impossibly complex and expensive system we now have, and to re-instate the incentives needed to motivate the nations`s wealth creators.
I`ve no doubt that, initially, the tax burden will rise. The key question will be where will it fall hardest - on wealth consumption or on wealth creation?
Duyfken
March 21st, 2009 2:34pm Report this commentGO does need to get a grip. So far he has been outplayed by Cable in the media and has enunciated little of significance about the current crisis, or of how we should tackle it.
Hoping to be wrong, I am really worried that Mr Osborne just does not have the wherewithal to pull us out of Brown's mess.
As for the 45p rate, it's an irrelevance - what is the outlook for the present 20p and 40p rates?
Will Yoxall
March 21st, 2009 2:46pm Report this commentBut to the public at large having high earners share the pain of tax increases may not be seen as a "relatively minor issue".
Mifrani Akubalekki
March 21st, 2009 2:49pm Report this commentYes indeed. The party is completely splitting itself from the leadership, just as Labour intended. If the Tories are this much weak under pressure from Labour tricks, how are they expected to win the bloody election? Even if it came to 1 year of 45p rate after the election, which I doubt it would, that would be a price worth paying to rid us of Brown and his evil.
J_London
March 21st, 2009 2:54pm Report this commentI hate the idea of income tax increases and I think the Tories long term (10yr) goal should be closer to a 35% top rate with a generous (£10k+) personal allowance.
However, I can see the politcal merit in this and acknowledge that it may be a neccessary (short term) measure to ease the implementation / adoption of the radical public sector reforms and major spending cuts that are so needed.
The message that "things must be bad, even the Tories are raising taxes" is potentially powerful in obtaining public support / reducing opposition to reforms and cuts.
So, yes, this is a largely cosmetic measure, but it could be helpful to achieving the longer term aim of lower taxes and lower, more efficient public spending.
However, if implemented it needs to be coupled with a commitment to reverse after 2 years in order to reduce talent flight.
George Laird
March 21st, 2009 2:57pm Report this commentDear All
The 45 pence tax rate is a good stunt.
It is gesture politics that will appeal to the masses.
But, this isn't a cure just an election tool to shore up votes.
Little stunts here, little stunts there are all very well and good but bigger policies are needed to roam the land.
Isn't time the Tories actually had some policies rather than 'we aren't Gordon Brown and Labour'?
The Tories need to wise up.
What is their solution to the British Banks who were lending in eastern europe?
What do they favour doing?
Who are they going to have discussions with?
Is there a plan for this and other areas?
Cameron has been living on credit with absolutely no assets. His scheme entirely relies on repossession based on the actions of others.
That is no strategy!
Yours sincerely
George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University
Lloyd
March 21st, 2009 3:03pm Report this commentTim M is totally wrong because this will be law before the election. Blame it totally and consistently on Brown and Darling as pathetic playing to the gallery and stress how much of a pathetic socialist shibboleth it is.
Then say with clarion clarity that, whilst disagreeing comletely with this petty vengeance, of all the fiscal and monetary crises facing an incoming Tory govt, reversing this has to be a long way down the shopping list for obvious reasons. But we will get there eventually.
Thatcher did that a lot. One of her best attributes was brutal honesty with the electorate. Cameron needs that to 'seal the deal'.
David Lindsay
March 21st, 2009 3:24pm Report this commentGeorge Osborne says that a 45p top rate of income tax is now “difficult to avoid”. Not for him. He has never paid income tax in his life. Far too rich to have to. Or National Insurance, since you have to have had a job to have paid National Insurance.
Oh, well, the Tories, and the Tories alone, going into a General Election calling for higher income tax. How times change…?
JohnAnt
March 21st, 2009 3:51pm Report this commentWhat will raise revenue is fiscal drag that leaves the 40% band where it is as price and wage inflation kicks off. Council taxes up, energy costs up, food costs up - and CPI at minus levels?? People will feel poorer, they will be poorer, and they will pay more 40% tax. The 45% tax is a sideshow.
perdix
March 21st, 2009 4:46pm Report this commentDenis - what "impending" catastrophe? We are in one already!
Kelly Mac
March 21st, 2009 5:44pm Report this commentI hope Osborne and Cameron are also going to tell the Scots, N Irish and welsh they will have to have severe cuts to their budgets as they've been on a gravy train for the last 12 years. It should not be only the English who feel the pain. If the Tories win the next election it will be thanks to the voters in England and the Tories should bear this in mind.
Stan, UK
March 21st, 2009 6:12pm Report this commentI hope to God all these so called major cuts that are going to have to be imposed after the next election will apply to MP's salaries and expenses as well because when people are hurting, badly, there will be riots if MP's are seen to be still coining it in. I suggest Cameron does what the Irish have done and make all in the public sector take a 10% pay cut.
Screwtape
March 21st, 2009 8:15pm Report this commentWhatever happened to having convictions and being prepared to present arguments for them?
This just about says it all, doesn't it. Not only are the Tories terrifed of Brown to the point where they are incapable of holding and arguing any convictions of their own but they are applauded for their pusillanimity by distinguished members of the so-called right wing press.
You should be ashamed of yourself, James.
Alf Tupper
March 21st, 2009 9:49pm Report this commentThose who did the research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies - they wouldn't be on £150,000 by any chance would they?
TrevorsDen
March 22nd, 2009 12:18am Report this commentCorrect Mr Forsyth. You have just delivered a massive custard pie into the face of your fellow Coffehouse bloggers and folks like Iain Dale.
The poncy rightwing blogotariat is not completely brain dead then.
Next - lets see how many dingbat coal heads there are on the tory backbenches.
Tiberius
March 22nd, 2009 9:59am Report this commentScrewtape: I imagine James' conviction is rather like mine and Osborne's - to provide the political means for the electorate not to make the same mistake for the fourth GE running.
And anyway, isn't an idea which results in the better-off paying more tax likely to resonate with the C2s you claim the Cameroons need to court, particularly in such harsh economic times?
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