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Sunday, 22nd March 2009

Pakistan, the sum of all fears

James Forsyth 3:58pm

My old friend Carlos Lozada has an interesting interview with David Kilcullen, one of the men behind the successful shift in counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq. His remarks about Pakistan rather concentrate the mind:

“Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn't control. The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don't follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state. We're now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state, also because of the global financial crisis, which just exacerbates all these problems. . . . The collapse of Pakistan, al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons, an extremist takeover -- that would dwarf everything we've seen in the war on terror today.”
If Pakistan does fail, then we will face a nightmare situation. Worryingly, no one seems to have any real idea of what can be done to bolster the Pakistani state.

The rest of the interview is well worth reading. His comments on why turning elements of the Taliban will be far more difficult than it was with members of the insurgency in Iraq are particularly worth paying attention to.

PS Kilcullen’s reminiscences about the politics of the surge reminds one how much we owe those few politicians who were prepared to stand and argue for it: 

“Our biggest problem during the surge was a hostile American Congress. They could have killed the thing. There was really nobody except [Senators] McCain and Lieberman arguing for a continued commitment. So I don't fault President Bush for pushing General Petraeus forward. I think what he was trying to do was to find a figure with sufficient credibility to restore hope within Congress and to gain a measure of support for the effort from the U.S. domestic population.”

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Verity

March 22nd, 2009 4:31pm Report this comment

Something radical is required.

Alf Tupper

March 22nd, 2009 5:21pm Report this comment

Just how far a country has to descend in order to attain 'failed' status, can only be wondered at, given the description above.

Grim indeed, but we have at least cleared phase dimwit, during which our politicians and our media insisted that in Pakistan we had an ally.

Unfortunately it will take a few more atrocious events to shock both of those parties into that further stage at which they face up to the fact that we are in a war which cannot be waged at arm's length, and that Pakistan looms large in the forces ranged against us.

Tony

March 22nd, 2009 5:58pm Report this comment

Pakistan has been written off as a failed state again and again throughout its history in editorials. This type of slack (Indian inspired?) stereotypical journalism is tedious. The West must understand that Pakistan has a mixture of liberal, secular and religious people. Don't reduce Pakistanis as all being gun tottin' Muslim extremists.The so call war or terror has limped on for 8 years, what has it achieved?
The Kabul has not become London.
Kandahar hasn't become Los Angeles.
The writer says Pakistan will implode in 6 months. I would wager that Pakistan will still be around. It may be a bit chaotic but it ain't going anywhere. The West should start by enforcing UN resolutions in Palestine and Kashmir. This would demonstrate some sincerity.

Verity

March 22nd, 2009 6:14pm Report this comment

Worryingly, no one seems to have any real idea of what can be done to bolster the Pakistani state.

I'm not sure that anything should be done to bolster the Pakistani state, James. It is a failed state.

One solution would be for the Anglosphere (not the EU) to go in and run it and clean it up, possibly with extreme prejudice.

Pakistani has always been more dangerous than Iran. The Iranians have an ancient civilisation which gives them more coherence.

I cannot imagine that Pakistan be allowed to continue as it is.

I also see this as the kick-off of the Anglosphere as a semi-formal entity.

Susan Hill

March 22nd, 2009 6:26pm Report this comment

And people worry about Climate Change.

Verity

March 22nd, 2009 7:14pm Report this comment

Tony writes: "Pakistan has been written off as a failed state again and again throughout its history ..."

Throughout its history! My God, Pakistan is not Ancient Rome, or Greece, or Egypt or Persia! It's only been a country for five minutes - 1947! People have been referring to it as a failure since then because it is a failure.

The corrupt UN can get out of the way. The Anglosphere will have to go in and administer Pakistan until we decide what to do about it. It's a renegade country and threatens the security of the West.

Max Kaye

March 22nd, 2009 7:27pm Report this comment

If (sorry, when) Pakistan falls, it will allow the West (and India) a freer hand in tackling extreme Islamists without the incumbrance of a useless and venal 'ally'.

Johnny Come Lately

March 22nd, 2009 9:49pm Report this comment

More worrying is the fact that our beloved country has thousands of pakistani's living here. They will not take kindly to Verity's suggestion.

So our governments over the past fifty years have allowed a significant 'enemy within' which will contain us and our EU brothers and sisters! This will allow the Taliban in control of Pakistan and its nucear weapons to effectively attempt to take out Israel, which will start the Third World War.

Now, can you have any confidence in a free world led by Obama? or our Country led by Cameron?

Step forward David Davis?

Augustus

March 22nd, 2009 9:53pm Report this comment

In Pakistan the true power rests with the military, which is one reason why it was a pity that Musharraf relinquished his command and only kept the Presidency. Nothing has changed and the military still wields the power, and still has jihad infiltrators. There is no real cure for Afghanistan until Pakistan is under control, but the West cannot invade Pakistan and cleanse it. No matter how many troops are employed in Afghanistan they will merely drive al Qaeda and the Taliban jihad groups back into Pakistan. As long as a safe haven exists there nothing lasting can be done for Afghanistan. Unless the Pakistani military can be induced to bear down heavily on their own violent elements, Afghanistan, unlike Iraq, will remain just a drain on resources, and a war which cannot be won without Pakistan's cooperation. And there's nobody in power there that can be relied upon to do that.

George Steiner

March 22nd, 2009 10:31pm Report this comment

Pakistan? Nah. I hear you have many of these exitable fellows now. Fully trained with weapons and explosives all gung ho and ready to go.

Verity

March 22nd, 2009 11:13pm Report this comment

We and the rest of the Anglosphere have to go in and do what is necessary to neutralise this misbegotten country. We didn't hesitate to go into Germany. The need is even more urgent now and the risk entailed in doing nothing even greater.

This is a deranged society with nuclear warheads. It breeds and trains religious terrorists with worldwide ambitions.

It needs to be cleaned out, whatever it takes.

I would also suggest, in Britain, for the duration, a cold lock-down on mosques, whence comes much of the enthusiastic support for terror. They can pray in their own homes.

* I recognise that Pakistan merely filters the money through, and that the funds actually come from elsewhere.

JohnAnt

March 23rd, 2009 2:05am Report this comment

We forget that beneath the artificial borders of modern Pakistan we have the territory of the Khyber, the Afghan tribes, the Punjab - indeed, most of the sizeable bits that worry us today was the terrain we fought over in the Afghan Wars. The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan in meaningless, and the geography is perfect for guerilla war, which is why we cannot conquer the tribes by waging a military war on land. Bombing the bejabers out of them will not conquer the region either, and I doubt it could be any more effective than it is now - i.e. taking out the occasional terrorist capo with drones, but incapable of destroying the command or the guerillas.
We've been here before: we've never conquered them. The best we can do for now is to leave them alone and simply contain the whole Afghan/Pakistan border region as far as possible. And to try to disarm Pakistan's nuclear missiles. (Good luck with that!)

MrJones

March 23rd, 2009 4:08am Report this comment

Pakistan's collapse started with the neocons nagging Musharraf into attacking and stirring up the north west frontier. The end result of the Af-Pak war will be the collapse of Pakistan.

Given the ever growing fifth column we have inside this country the last thing we need is for Pakistan to collapse. We need to get out. We need to guard our borders properly. We need to remove enemies past governments have been foolish enough to allow in.

Herbert Thornton

March 23rd, 2009 4:47am Report this comment

Assuming the worst, and Al Qaeda & the Taliban take power in Pakistan, and have access to its nuclear weapons, I think question we need to ask is who will be their first target?

I think that the clear answer to that is 'Israel' - and that the attack will be made on the assumption that aside from destroying Israel, it will cause the world's Muslims to rally behind them - and demoralise everyone else.

I don't presume to forecast what will happen after that, but the huge Pakistani presence in Britain gives me no comfort.

Manish Sharma

March 23rd, 2009 6:27am Report this comment

For decades after India became independent, every time there was the slightest civil or political turbulence, the Western press headlines would read, ominously, "Can India Survive?"

Now it seems that is our neighbour's turn to suffer the same clueless speculation. Hang in there guys, someday they will be cheering for you. I only wish they were doing so already, with the positive developments in regards to the Chief Justice.

Austin Barry

March 23rd, 2009 7:40am Report this comment

A moratorium on immigration from Pakistan would be prudent, but won't happen. A more robust approach to mosques and extremist preachers would be prudent, but won't happen. In Nu-Labour's Ukistan security will always be trumped by the need to husband what it perceives to be one of its core voting 'communities'. And I'm not confident that Hazel Blears with her little chirrups of comforting pieties and platitudes can hold back the domestic fallout and blowback should Pakistan implode. One Mumbai-style attack in London and every bet is off.

C Powell

March 23rd, 2009 9:41am Report this comment

Two things need to be done: (1) Put Pakistan's nuclear weapons out of harm's way or disable them; (2) very severely limit travel to/from and links with Pakistan.

I know, I'm not holding my breath either.....

Ken

March 23rd, 2009 10:59am Report this comment

Verity Anglophone solution: and with what money? Get real. Anglophone US and UK are bankrupt thrice over. The rest have more sense and better things to do. Its India's problem and as they have a space programme presumably they also have the cash.

Lindsay

March 23rd, 2009 12:37pm Report this comment

Susan Hill @6.26pm.

Exactly!

Whilst not advocating a "shooting war" on this or any issue, it is clear to me that a long period of peace and prosperity is one of the main causes of this vain desire to affect the climate and save the planet. From the Prince of Wales down (or is it "up") the hysterical mantra of "tipping points" proceeds unabated.

It is a surprise to me that this issue is rarely debated here and the "warmist" position seems largely taken as read by the Tories and Spectator.

Verity

March 23rd, 2009 1:05pm Report this comment

Ken. Get real. The Anglosphere also includes Canada, Oz and New Zealand. I think between us, we can scrape up the funds. The war shouldn't last more than a day or two.

Someone suggested above that if the Paks (this is the term used in newspapers in the region, so plse don't be provincial and style it "racist") let loose with their nukes, they will nuke Israel. I do not agree. The Pakistanis haven't ever shown much interest in Israel. It would be the West, which stubbornly refuses to see the point of Allah and the girls wear short skirts and tank tops, so I think the Paks would try to bomb some fashion tips into Britain especially and also the US ... just because.

What needs to be done at home, and which would cost very little, is mass repatriation of every Pakistani family living off the British taxpayer. There is no reason for them to be in Britain. They should be obliged to give a swab of their DNA and a retinal photo - so they can't sneak back in - as they board the troop ships which will let them off in Algeria or Libya. After that, they're on their own.

Also, what the hell are these people doing with the right to vote in our country? This alone accounts for a huge tranche of the problem.

As I mentioned above, there should be a cold lock-down of mosques for at least a year. The MCB should also be shorn of taxpayer assistance, as should every other dedicated Muslim special pleading entity. If they want it, they can fund it themselves.

We are only in this position today because we are perceived as weak. Tony Blair accorded them every demand, and came up with a few special privileges all by himself. Every one of these must be withdrawn stat.

Verity

March 23rd, 2009 1:11pm Report this comment

Lindsay - Where have you been? We have thrashed "man made global warming" into the ground. We have pummelled it. We have kicked it to death. We have nuked it.

Herbert Thornton

March 23rd, 2009 4:25pm Report this comment

I'm not entirely persuaded the Taliban & Al Qaeda have little interest in Israel. I recall for example that the terrorists in Mumbai took particular pains to murder some Jews there, including a Rabbi.

On the other hand, it's possible that their religious delusions about martyrdom that I think Verity was referring to are powerful enough to induce the kind of foolishness that could result in the extermination not just of themselves but of the rest of the world's Muslims too. If, having got possession of them, bin Laden and the Mullahs were to arrange to detonate one or two of their nuclear bombs in the U.K. and the U.S., I would certainly (assuming I hadn't been vapourised myself) expect to see very massive retaliation indeed. And as Verity says, the job shouldn't last more than a day or two.

Casper

March 23rd, 2009 4:55pm Report this comment

From the write up to the comments, its all crap ! Pure , absolute, blatant nonsense !

Reading this whole fool scrap, i can't help my self laughing to madness ...

I can't believe if there could be greater height of ignorance ...

I don't know which part of the world are you talking about ... it could be any lost island on the face of the earth, but definitely not Pakistan ...

I know Pakistan to its very bones ... there may be some disturbances, some law and order situations time and again ... but Pakistan ain't going anywhere ... Pakistan is to stay ... Pakistan ain't a Pizza which any yankie doodle , or any jack or harry can cut to pieces and swallow ...

Secondly, coming into Pakistan to "clean up" the mess ... i think its a bit too unfair to make fun of this word "clean up" ... but if you are trying to refer to the chaos you did in Iraq or Afghanistan ... bombed an entire humanity to stone age ... i feel a pity for the word "clean up" and i definitely feel a greater pity for the entire human race which became a target of the US led genocide in Iraq and Afghanistan ???

And for the fool hardy about disarmament ... "JUST FORGET IT" !

Beer Moth

March 23rd, 2009 6:21pm Report this comment

alCasper.

Calm down old chap. For a minute there I thought you were going to wheel out the old favourite: 'carpet bombing'

Lindsay

March 24th, 2009 12:34am Report this comment

Verity.

I am glad to hear that you have done all those things to the "warming" supporters but it seems to me that most of the Spectator journalists who start the blogs are still signed on to the belief that we must "do something" and then all will be well. Even if it is the destruction of our industrial ecomomies.

Anyway keep on nuking....

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