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Friday, 27th March 2009

Hope over expectations management

James Forsyth 8:44am

Martin Kettle and Steve Richards devote their columns today to the question of why Gordon Brown has so hyped the G20 Summit that it cannot possibly live up to expectations. Kettle sums it up nicely, when he writes that:

“He has set expectations too high. His rhetoric left reality standing. From the moment the summit was mooted, Brown bet the whole farm on the rewards of being seen at the heart of the economic summit. As a result, Thursday's gathering has been seriously oversold as a transformative political event. The danger for Brown is that now, instead of being hailed as the man who led the global economy out of recession, he risks being dismissed as boastful but ineffectual.”
Steve compares this error to the election that never was. But there is a fundamental difference. The failure to manage expectations about an autumn 2007 poll was born of over-confidence, the Brownites were drunk on power—the prospect of winning their own mandate and destroying the Tories. This time, the mistake has been a consequence of desperation. The Brownites know they are heading for defeat unless something changes, so they poured their hopes into the idea that this summit would be the game-changer. For this reason, I expect we will see many more failures of expectations management before Brown finally has to face the electorate.  

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johnny come lately

March 27th, 2009 9:18am Report this comment

Surely, one of those sitting around the Cabinet table will have the guts and loyalty to Country to actually tell Brown to GO?

They must act now and get rid of this icompetent man. He is utterly useless. People can see now that he is naked. He has nothing to offer. He has to go.

Talking of people who have to go. After watching eric pickles dig a hole, and keep digging, on Question Time, on the subject of MP's second homes. It is time for Cameron to make a hasty change of Chairman.

He became quite testy.No humour.Made snide comments and made a total mess of his non argument. As one audience (and panel) member said 'Welcome to the real world'

Sorry. Mr Pickles you have shown yourself to be totally unfit for National Office. You cannot take criticism without getting upset.

When Charles Clarke comes out of that debate as the reasonable one and you as Mr Nasty then you do have to consider your position!You should resign today before you do any more damage.

Chris lancashire

March 27th, 2009 9:31am Report this comment

Exactly right, it's all about grasping at straws. When the G20 straw fails, the next will be the Budget.
It really is time Brown called the election and disappeared into well deserved obscurity, save as the worst Chancellor - PM of modern times.

Mike, Brighton

March 27th, 2009 10:05am Report this comment

But what cards does Brown have left? The G20 will be seen as an embarrassing damp squib with the outcome being some meaningless, vapid statement of the bleedin' obvious. The budget will be shocking not for its highly political content but for revealing just how bad the public finances are. What next? The clock is ticking we are approaching 12 months until the election, what further cards does he have left? None.

It's over. King taking control of economic policy has destroyed Brown's political and economic agenda. He can do very little over the next 12 months other than watch his reputation further disintegrate if it can possibly fall further. Watching Derek Draper on TV makes me realise how far elements of the Labour party are in denial. Guy's it's over in the same way it was over for Major in 1996

Oscar

March 27th, 2009 10:07am Report this comment

Congratulations to Fraser for this morning's excellent performance on Today. Despite contending with Naughtie interrupting at every sentence while allowing Meacher to waffle on at length, Fraser won the argument to such a degree that Meacher did a surreptitious U-turn mid interview. It's just a shame the BBC will not give proper space to a rational discussion about bankers and regulation, instead of stoking up dangerous hysteria on the subject.

Chuck Unsworth

March 27th, 2009 10:36am Report this comment

"he risks being dismissed as boastful but ineffectual.”

Well, yes. But he has already been clearly seen as that by everyone - both at home and abroad. Frankly this Prime Minister is an appalling embarrassment. It's quite obvious that his every move on the global stage is intended to raise his standing at home, but he cannot even do that effectively.

I'd echo Mike, Brighton's comments. It's over. We are observing the thrashing corpse of a suicidal Government. It's just a matter of time, but in the meantime its death throes are inflicting serious damage on us all.

And I'd also agree with Oscar that Fraser did well this morning. Meacher was in an impossible position if logical debate was to be heard. Somehow the grossly politically biased Naughtie managed to let that happen. It must have been an oversight of some sort.

seb

March 27th, 2009 10:40am Report this comment

Though I never listen to Radio Four [Clive James, Lawrie Taylor and a few others excepted] I'm so looking forward to turning the radio on when Kirkcaldy's Leading Autist loses big time in 2010 and hearing Naughtie having to deliver the good news. So he let Fraser actually utter a few words? Remarkable.

Nicholas

March 27th, 2009 10:46am Report this comment

" . . . he risks being dismissed as boastful but ineffectual.”

Risks? Surely by now everyone can see plainly that Brown IS boastful and ineffectual? What is it going to take to get this dangerous idiot actually dismissed from No.10? Not one amongst the governing fascists seems to have the bottle to get rid of the chump, despite the impending doom of their all important "party"; the opposition appear supine and incapable of savaging potty, petty Draper's puerile taunts, despite what DC writes in the Speccie (and much as I agree with him). The media - well they are worst of all - conspiring to remain deaf, dumb and blind whilst the fascists continue to abuse both their positions and the country. Forty years ago one tenth of Labour's individual and collective abuses of power would have resulted in resignations and the fall of the government. Now we are treated to the spectacle of the Authoritarian Left stripped of any credibility but remaining blithely in power and not just crapping on the people at every opportunity but rubbing their faces in it too.

Their catalogue of crimes against this country, awash with trademark hypocrisy and lies, is now so long it cannot be summarised other than in book form. Never before in British politics have so few been culpable for so much to so many. When is it going to be stopped?

RobertD

March 27th, 2009 11:04am Report this comment

Based on the ITV report a few hours ago Brown seems to be gathering more problems than support on his hideaway tour. His presence has caused Lula to express his views bluntly. "This is a crisis that was caused by people, white with blue eyes. And before the crisis they looked as if they knew everything about economics. Once again the great part of the poor in the world that were still not yet (getting) their share of development that was caused by globalisation, they were the first ones to suffer."

If this view gets any traction then the G20 will break down in a very acrimonious way

Gordon would have more credibility had he stayed at home and fixed that which is his responsibility to manage. Instead he makes himself, and unfortunatly the whole country, look irresponsible and foolish.

oldtimer

March 27th, 2009 11:17am Report this comment

I watched BBC Breakfast this am. No mention of the PM or his trip to South America. Instead the lead story wss about reform of the monarchy. Conveniently, the Deputy Leader of the HoC was to hand, in person, to talk about it; moreover the BBC handily had available the results of a "survey" to say people supported it. So no report from the BBC Political Editor from Sao Paulo on how the PM`s trip was going.

I then switched to Sky News. The lead story there was an interview with the PM by Joey Jones, their political correspondents on the trip. He asked penetrating questions about the remarks by Mervyn King and also reported the comments of President Lula on the causes of the present crisis.

The contrast could hardly be greater and speaks volumes about the intent of the BBC`s editorial control of the political agenda on their TV programmes.

I see that the G-20 are scheduled to meet for just 4 hours 35 minutes. It seems a touch ambitious to change the world in this time when God needed all of seven days to create it.

The Bellman

March 27th, 2009 11:23am Report this comment

Never have the Fuhrerbunker jokes seemed more fitting. Brown looks more and more like the German high command, desperately seeking to engineer a decisive single engagement that will retrieve the situation. The bungled election was his Alamein. The tide has now turned in the east: the G20 is shaping up to be his Kursk, the attempt to co-ordinate a decisive battle that will instead destroy the bulk of his remaining strategic reserves, and with no contingencies developed in case of failure.

All we need now is for Allied action to exploit his stupidity and complete the rout. So far there's not much sign of Cameron becoming an Eisenhower, lt alone a Rokossovskii or Zhukov.

luke

March 27th, 2009 11:30am Report this comment

Funny think though expectations. What with this column, Kettle, Richards and others, expectations for the summit are now incredibly low.

Brown may yet pull something off and almost any kind of agreement will now look like a result.

Tom Pride

March 27th, 2009 12:06pm Report this comment

I am caught in two minds. I can see the need for the country to be rid of Brown as soon as possible and short of June 2010 that can only be achieved by cabinet action, but, I want him to face the country. I want him finally to confront reality and a result he cannot spin / lie away. And, I want the Labour Party to pay the price for supinely rewarding him for years of treachery with an uncontested coronation to a Office of State for which he was so clearly unsuited.

An early GE with Brown in situ please.

Thomas Cussans

March 27th, 2009 12:19pm Report this comment

Luke: I think you'll find that's the whole point, low cunning – well, he thinks it's cunning – being the Great McManiac's invariable modus operandi.

Bellman: What was his Stalingrad then? 10p tax? Or maybe Glasgow East? I hope you are looking forward to his D-Day, which appropriately looks likely to be the Euro elections, being held, by a remarkable coincidence, on June 4. Pity they can't be put back to June 6. That really would be perfect.

TrevorsDen

March 27th, 2009 12:32pm Report this comment

Yes - the spin has gone into reverse.

Brown HAS been on the news claiming that US banking regulation changes are a good advert for his efforts.
This seems a bin thin to me - there were surely always going to be changes.
its an example of the spin we can expect.

Suetonius

March 27th, 2009 1:06pm Report this comment

Johnny asks:

Surely, one of those sitting around the Cabinet table will have the guts and loyalty to Country to actually tell Brown to GO?

Just as there is no known record of turkeys voting for Christmas there will be no Cabinet apparatciks voting for a lower pension by givng up a whole year's service befor the the slaughter must commence.

And yes, Pickles should be summarily dismissed by DC for his abject performance last night. Ken Clarke as his replacement?

Tiberius

March 27th, 2009 1:34pm Report this comment

I was open-mouthed as I watched Eric Pickles floundering as he tried to make a case for an issue that was entirely defensible. If the presentation of the grammar schools policy was Cameron's first big mistake to date, Pickles' appointment as chairman could be the second. How will he bear up at the hustings, one wonders.

It also provides a lesson for those who raised a shrill cry for his appointment at the expense of Caroline Spelman. She would never have turned in a performance as bad as that. This politics game is not as simple as some make out.

BTW, I loved Michael Winner's characterization of the G20 summit as The Mad Hatter's Tea Party. How wonderful would it be if that phrase entered the MSM reports of Brown's zillionth relaunch.

David Ossitt

March 27th, 2009 7:41pm Report this comment

Suetonius.

And yes, Pickles should be summarily dismissed by DC for his abject performance last night. Ken Clarke as his replacement?

Suetonius; you are right, whilst at the same time you are wrong.

He should be dismissed because he is the wrong man for the job as were the two who were his predecessors.

David Cameron does not see or does not appear to see just how important the job is.

By giving the job to Ken Clarke he will fulfill two pressing needs, first giving the job to someone with sufficient stature and gravitas and second it will put a stop to Ken putting the occasional boot (hushpuppy) in to the works.

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