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Thursday, 2nd April 2009

Does Brown's G20 statement contain the mother of all Brownies?

Peter Hoskin 4:25pm

Brown's just delivered his statement to close the G20 summit, and it's all about the big numbers.  That $1 trillion injection into the global economy made an appearance, but it paled beside Brown's claim that "we're in the middle of a fiscal stimulus that is worth about $5 trillion by the end of next year".  Hang on.  Brown was talking about a $2 trillion stimulus only yesterday, so where's the extra $3 trillion coming from? 

I haven't seen details yet, but Brown's rhetoric - "Our central banks have pledged to make expansionary policies as long as they are necessary, and in whatever ways they see fit" - seems too guarded to suggest that the French, Germans and others have been convinced to introduce further stimulus to their economies.  And the expanded time horizon ("end of next year") makes me wonder whether Brown's just summed up a range of existing spending measures and ones already planned for 2010; slapped a nice round number on them; and chucked it in the communiqué for the Wow! factor.  If it makes headlines, then mission accomplished.  But things may look less rosy once we've had chance to sift through the small print.

P.S. Adam Boulton kicked off the questioning with: "What are British voters going to get out of this?"  Brown replied saying that domestic measures may be be made twice as effective by global "cooperation".  Consider me unconvinced.

P.P.S. You can read the full communiqué here.  More from Coffee House soon.

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cuffleyburgers

April 2nd, 2009 5:05pm Report this comment

A commitment to do what is deemed necessary and as they see fit hardly sounds like the kind of radical conclusion Brown was hyping.

If he didn't have the beeb in his pocket he'd be laughed off the evening news.

What a sad deluded fool.

Problem is he's our sad deluded fool and as Mr Liddle notes, we pick up the tab.

THX1138

April 2nd, 2009 5:06pm Report this comment

Early days of course but the markets liked it.

The Bellman

April 2nd, 2009 5:07pm Report this comment

@Peter: Quite. Twice as effective for who? Or what? Somehow I doubt he was thinking of the UK taxpayer.

George Laird

April 2nd, 2009 5:11pm Report this comment

Dear Peter

What a good question, where is the other £3 trillion coming from?

Given that Brown keeps announcing the same money time and time again; I am suspicious.

Could it be phased payments which rely on money being generated from previous injections into the banking system?

I think someone is trying to pull a fast one.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

Susan Hill

April 2nd, 2009 5:17pm Report this comment

How can he not know that we know that he is a liar ? That it will unravel even as the words come out of his mouth ? Does he really take everyone, including the others at the summit, as complete fools ?
Er, I`ll take that as a yes then.

luke

April 2nd, 2009 5:27pm Report this comment

Initial response from markets seems positive.

My understanding of the IMF fund is it works rather like quantitative easing - which most economists agree is proving the most effective part of different countries fiscal stimulii

Publius

April 2nd, 2009 5:42pm Report this comment

@THX1138. The markets like inflation.

Liz Brown

April 2nd, 2009 5:51pm Report this comment

£1 trillion suddenly becomes £5 trillion - that's really cool - like water becomes wine. Gordo has truly SAVED THE WORLD

Publius

April 2nd, 2009 6:06pm Report this comment

As Edmund Conway predicted in his article this morning, "the more noise is made about the IMF, the more likely it will be that the G20 has flopped."

It reminds me of one of Brown's ghastly budgets. All "sound and fury, signifying nothing."

martyn rowe

April 2nd, 2009 6:13pm Report this comment

From a global point of view there's little to argue with. Potentail help for emerging nations and suchlike is understandable.

From Brown's point of view, he must be disappointed. There is nothing there to reverse his short term political future; no massive fiscal stimulus for the domestic economy. One that he knows would be a millstone around the future UK economy, but one that could save his political skin.

He's been beaten into shape by more pragmatic, less selfish political leaders.

It's good news for the Conservatives. The economy they inherit in a year's time will be bad, but not as bad as it could've been

jennywren

April 2nd, 2009 6:43pm Report this comment

The markets clearly like the news, but actually they were already going up today due to some better than expected news on house prices and yesterday's industrial production figures. There have also been some better than hoped for housing start figures from the US.
One has to ask therefore is this announcement 'too much too late?'

Gil

April 2nd, 2009 6:55pm Report this comment

Er...George Laird, the sum is 3 million Dollars not pounds.

Gil

April 2nd, 2009 6:56pm Report this comment

I mean Trillion of course.

THX1138

April 2nd, 2009 7:10pm Report this comment

jennywren -Please do you really think that the markets went up because of the Nationwide house price survey! There is only one story in town today the G20, the markets appear to like the deal and that's why they went up. I'm sure if they hadn't liked the deal they would have gone down don't you?

I don't actually care if Brown get's the credit, good luck to him if he does, he probably deserves some credit for the deal. What I care about is will the damn think work? Fingers crossed that it does.

Publius if the markets like inflation then so do I.

Tankus

April 2nd, 2009 7:17pm Report this comment

Not good for global warming then , just how many trees have to be sacrificed in order to print £5T..?

Siberia perhaps ? every tree east of the Andes ?

Mugabeism at its finest ...Gordon should feel proud

George Laird

April 2nd, 2009 8:13pm Report this comment

Dear Gil

Thank you for pointing out my mistake.

I completely misread that one.

If you hang about a dollar may have the same value as a pound soon anyway.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

Paul Round

April 3rd, 2009 8:03am Report this comment

Luke, are these the same economists who thought massive ,leveraged unsecured debt was a good thing?

Publius

April 3rd, 2009 12:10pm Report this comment

@THX1138
"Publius if the markets like inflation then so do I"

Yes, yours is a common view, and none of us needs reminding how hard it is to stand against the vulgar herd and its tricoteuse-like claque in the media. That is the great danger we face with all this wild money-printing. Inflation is popular. It rewards the feckless, and punishes the prudent.

Hereford

April 3rd, 2009 3:21pm Report this comment

I did a 2 hour journey in the car last night and Radio 4 spent almost the whole time creaming its jeans over the G20 summit. In the end I had to turn to Radio 2. First time in years.

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