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Friday, 3rd April 2009

Why Brown shouldn't expect a significant bounce

Peter Hoskin 9:08am

Let's face it: Brown's having his moment in the sun.  The content of the G20 communique may have been awfully thin (see Fraser's must-read analysis here), but it's delivered backslaps from Obama; some big, headline-grabbing numbers; and an opportunity for our Dear Leader to play the statesman.  And it seems to have worked.  Despite a few qualms here and there - and a surprisingly combative interview with Alistair Darling on the Today Programme - the overall tone of the papers is positive, and you'd expect Labour to get a poll boost on the back of it.  Well done, Agent Brown.  Mission accomplished.

And yet, to my mind, the sun will fade soon enough for our PM.  There are three main reasons to think that any bounce will be limited in duration and size.  First, the fact that, once all the numbers have been picked apart, Brown's "historic deal" will be revealed as a sham.  Much as with one of Brown's Budgets, it takes at least a few days - if not weeks, months - for the charade to be picked up on by all the media, and to become the dominant narrative.  

And then there's the question of whether the British public will really care about Brown's global endeavours.  The PM has much to deal with on a domestic front - and I don't just have the recession in mind, although that's the biggest issue.  Second homes, porn films and what Lord Myners did or didn't know threaten to bring Brown back down to earth with an almighty crash.  Public resentment will not have been ended by the London Summit.

Finally, and relatedly, there's the simple fact that things are going to get worse in the UK.  With jobs being lost, homes being repossessed and businesses closing, I imagine people will look on Brown's "New World Order" with even greater cynicism.  And the Tories' "Labour isn't working" message could resonate more than ever before.  So, while Brown may be enjoying the plaudits he's getting at the moment, the vultures are still circling above his premiership.

P.S. Tim Montgomerie writes on the same theme here.

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TomTom

April 3rd, 2009 9:28am Report this comment

Forget newspapers - a dead medium with falling sales. Forget MSM and recall that the Net has a different take. It is silly to see if the advertisers in the press have switched brands because of a presentation to analysts. Journalists are sales agents for politicians and cannot sell washing powder to price conscious consumers

Harvey

April 3rd, 2009 9:43am Report this comment

Given the terribly fawning and slavish pro Brown reporting of the G20 on the BBC i am frankly surprised the Tories ever have an opinion poll lead. Why don't the BBC journos do the honourable thing and resign and all waddle over to Labour HQ to be employed directly by their masters and end this publicly funded charade?.

Nicholas

April 3rd, 2009 9:51am Report this comment

I listened with disbelief as the State Broadcaster announced this morning, on behalf of the Ministry for Propaganda, that having dealt with the recession Superheroes Brown and Obama were now going to turn their attention to Afghanistan.

"Faster than a speeding train. Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's Superbrown".

Obnoxio The Clown

April 3rd, 2009 10:17am Report this comment

Much as with one of Brown's Budgets, it takes at least a few days - if not weeks, months - for the charade to be picked up on by all the media, and to become the dominant narrative.

And shame on the media for not being more cynical about his lies from the outset.

Susan Hill

April 3rd, 2009 10:56am Report this comment

The proof of the pudding will be.....wait till even more of those journos lose their jobs. People are not fooled by the MSM or the Beeb. They want to know what actual difference it is going to make to their daily lives and when ? If by the end of the month everyone started to employ thousands instead of laying them off, banks lent to sound businesses again, prices in the shops fell, utilities became much cheaper and nobody`s house was repossessed ... if if if.. then the great British public would indeed believe miracles had been worked in one day by the wizards of the G20.
So let`s see shall we ?

Susan Hill

April 3rd, 2009 11:49am Report this comment

Rather pleased to note that George Osborne has said pretty much what I said above. Great minds then.

jim

April 3rd, 2009 12:02pm Report this comment

You forgot to mention the currency collapse and the humiliating trip to the IMF. Government borrowing looks like it could be 150 billion pounds this year. So they have to sell about 3 billion a week.
Last week we had a failure to sell all of the ordinary gilts, though they managed to sell the index linked ones.
Clearly though the pressure is going to mount week by week. The collapse could come very suddenly, I hope you're all ready, time is nearly up.

Max Kaye

April 3rd, 2009 12:22pm Report this comment

Dead cat bounce... it'll last until Monday. Maybe.

Alex

April 3rd, 2009 12:58pm Report this comment

Harvey / Nicholas - you took the words straight out of my mouth.

The Brown Broadcasting Corporation's pro-Labour / Socialist / Brown stance has been ramped up a few notches in the past week.

Are CCHQ not concerned about this blatantly pro-Labour stance of the State Broadcaster???

Anand

April 3rd, 2009 1:30pm Report this comment

What is really annoying is there really is no valid UK alternative to BBC News.

C4 are in the governments pocket, Rupert Murdoch's still a Blairite and shows no signs of being non-partisan and balanced yet either at The Times or on Sky News.

We don't have an independent non-left alligned news broadcaster in the UK, ALL the MSM pander to the Labour left, its disgusting. What happened to reporting the facts, pure and simple and UNSPUN

Mark

April 3rd, 2009 1:42pm Report this comment

Hmmm - sour grapes all round here I think! This is a rather petty response to the complexity of the events. The same could be said of Cameron and Osbornes' off-stage squeakings.

Wily Trout

April 3rd, 2009 2:15pm Report this comment

Has he become the Bouncing Cheque?

Michael Booth

April 3rd, 2009 2:36pm Report this comment

"Labour isn't working- AGAIN!" would be quite a catchy slogan for the next GE... what do you think?

Summer

April 3rd, 2009 3:51pm Report this comment

Well I'll give the press here full marks for "not talking the world economy down". However, picking apart their articles (even the BBC) even they admit the only positve news on which to base their glowing headlines, is the IMF funding and the fact everyone got together and talked; WOW!!

Their analysis is dire compared to the US press. Few point out that different nations need to take different actions; and will. That the danger with the IMF and other actions is looming inflation. That the toxic assets have not been dealt with. And that central and eastern Europe, Ireland and UK are all near the brink of failure.

So, how long will the mirage hold? If you go by comments on various blogs, not many 'people who care' have been taken in; even in the Guardian. I take it the Telegraph and Times have had loads of negative comments as so few have been published. Then there are those to whom G20 means nothing and those who have turned off from the news.

The only ones who will be pleased are the 30% who still think Labour are a good idea, and they may also win back a few of those who had gone to the LD.

So for a while it may be Labour 31%, Conservatives 41, LD's somewhere in the teens - but I see the BNP have moved up further in the local elections, coming in second in a ward in Leeds.

So inflation is on the rise, MP's greed is back on, I don't think the Euros are going to do Brown much good and the IMF package will be well and truly forgotten in a few weeks - until that is Brown has to go to them cap in hand!!

Mr. Green

April 3rd, 2009 4:27pm Report this comment

"Labour doesn't work" as the new slogan? It'll be a take on the old one, but instead of saying Labour isn't working (suggesting that it isn't working at the moment), it'll be implying that Labour never works....which it doesn't.

Nicholas

April 4th, 2009 9:10am Report this comment

Mark: " . . . sour grapes all round here I think!"

You underestimate the depth of feeling against Brown if you think "sour grapes" is an adequate response to 12 years of New Labour. It goes far beyond "sour grapes". This dreadful man and his rotten gang, aided and abetted by a powerful minority of the idiotic left, have wreaked havoc on this country, transforming it in less than a generation into a basket case. There are those who will bask in the dubious sunlight of this change and waffle on about "diversity", "equality", "fairness", "opportunity", even "devolution", and all the other leftist shite that sounds good but means nothing other than to give highly paid non-work to the agents of the encroaching state at the taxpayers expense.

"Year Zero" in Britain (1997) was not as dramatic or overtly destructive as in Cambodia but the forces of evil work in different ways and the goal was/is the same. The transformation of everything we know and hold dear and the surrender of our individuality and freedom.

Peter Buss

April 4th, 2009 9:59am Report this comment

I think one needs to differentiate between two categories of success namely political and economic.

It has been an enormous political success - equivalent at least to the acres of free publicity to any Party from a Party Conference. I would there fore be astonished if Labour did not get a substantial bounce from this.However medium to longer term, the success of it economically will determine how long that bounce will last and on that score if I were a Labou supporter I would be pretty pessimistic indeed.

David Short

April 4th, 2009 3:40pm Report this comment

Almost every Spectator 'Coffee House' (dread expression!) has 'Brown' in the headline and is anti-Brown.

Look, we get it. But a Tory-leaning magazine should instead be energetic in persuading Cameron to make the Conservative party have Tory values, not brushed up New Labour cant.

The Tories could start by appointing a Tory leader, not some Old Etonian who went into PR. Can you imagine a worse person to have as a Prime Minister; someone - with all the advantages of the best school in England, and oodles of family money, and married even more money - who chose to take a job flogging stories to the media about 'the telly'?

Yikes!

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