Is a 2009 election still a possibility?

Tiberius

No GE in 2009.

The snouts will remain in the trough until the bitter end. Especially Jacqui.

Richard

What date in April? The way Easter falls rules out all Thursdays unless you either change the date of the local elections or legislate to abolish Easter.

Rob C

June '09 is their only hope - and that's a real long shot. They'll hope for a sign of recovery and if none show, they'll falsify some. It won't get any better than the 'bounce' from the G20 and if Brown doesn't call it, the party will have to depose him or face 20+ years in opposition.

Moraymint

What we really need is a Cabinet insurrection.

It continues to amaze me that Brown retains a vice-like grip over the hearts and minds of his Cabinet colleagues, to the detriment of the country as a whole.

Despite withering attacks on Brown and his catastrophic leadership of this country into its greatest economic crisis in generations; despite evidence all around of gross administrative incompetence by Government; despite many sections of the media and the blogosphere baying for Brown's blood ... he continues to hang in there for grim death. And all along, his spineless, supine, dishonourable Cabinet colleagues trot along behind him.

Finally, why isn't Parliament holding the Executive to account? As a supposed model of democracy, the whole arrangement stinks ... epitomised by Brown himself seizing office by the back door.

In the eyes of a troubled world, we should be ashamed of ourselves. How did it get to this?

Bluebottle

Brown is a coward; he is particularly afraid of elections and won't call one before he absolutely has to, no doubt after toying with the idea of postponing or suspending the election indefinitely because of a "national emergency" or "terrorist threat".

So terrified is he, It wouldn't surprise me if, facing a wipeout, he stepped down for "health" reasons letting a fall guy take the flak.

The evidence his there: he bottled an election in 2007; he bullied the Labour Party so he didn't have to go through leadership contest, and he represents a safe Labour seat in Scotland where the Labour votes are weighed rather than counted, before he turns up at Westminster duly "elected".

Mike, Brighton

Remember if they shoot for October you'll hear the usual whinnying about dark and cold nights and rain keeping Labour voters at home. Clearly Labour voters only come out in the Spring or Summer.

Lose and be humiliated in 2009 or 2010 is not a great choice for Brown, but given he has waited all his life to become PM he will think he might as well have 3 years rather than 2 in the role he so coveted.

Chris G

Hmmmm - logistically and (labour party)financially I would have thought that if there were to be a GE this year then it would have been timed for the June 4 Local/Europeans. This isnt going to happen so I would say 2010 still more likely. Hopefully the country will at that point seen how empty the Tories message is. Prob not though

TrevorsDen

Another stimulus after a Nov 08 PBR failure and a 2009 Budget failure?

Anyway stop this 'stimulus' talk.

Its an 'Electoral Bribe'. A totally unfunded and unaffordable electoral bribe of the crudest and most blatant kind.

James

On what grounds does Brown justify going to the electorate?

Before he could argue he needed a mandate as a new leader - but too late for that now.

All the reasons appear either self-interested (prevent huge loss for Labour) or admit the failures of the previous 12 years (need mandate for new economic policy or admit that he isn't up to the job).

Brown can't even go to the electorate asking them to decide between further stimulus and Tory cuts - because Darling admitted in the last budget that taxes would need to go up after the next election to pay for the additional borrowing and they are beginning to talk about cuts too.

Perhaps he could refer back to his last reason for deferring - that he wanted to show the voters what he was capable of before going to the country. Somehow I don't think he will get the answer he thought he might 18 months ago.

The only chance of an early election in my opinion is if Labour force Brown out early and then try and capitalise on any bounce for a new leader (who would have even less mandate to lead than Brown)

Alex

Don't forget if he hangs on, he could rebuild Labour's local government base in London and elsewhere somewhat, even if he loses the general election.

The Conservatives scored big gains in the county council elections in 1997, despite losing the general election by a landslide on the same day.

That could be the only crumb of party comfort for Labour in 2010. If they went in March they'd lose and then their demoralised supporters wouldn't bother to come out again a few weeks later in the new government's honeymoon.

Carrie

Brown will hang on to the bitter end, no doubt.

Shaun

Sooner the better.

Denis Cooper

"Is a 2009 general election still a possibility?"

Yes, if Brown was prepared to use the Royal Prerogative to call an election in November or December - AFTER the Irish had voted in their second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in October.

Whichever way it went, he need no longer worry about Cameron scuppering the treaty by giving us the national referendum we were promised - either the treaty would be dead (Cameron referendum pledge no longer relevant) or it would be in force (Cameron referendum pledge no longer applicable).

We have had general elections in November (1868, 1885, 1922 and 1935), and even in December (1832, 1910, 1918 and 1923).

On the other hand, he might decide that Labour party supporters would still be more likely to turn out in the spring, and that maybe by then we would have seen the worst of the economic news.

Ben Elford

I'm inclined to think that Brown will be under pressure from his colleagues to stay as long as possible, so that they can carry on filling their pockets.

http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/Bathplugs/

George Laird

Dear James

It is reckoned by some that unemployment will be about 3.2 million next year.

Given that is a reasonable estimate, wouldn't you go sooner rather than later?

The longer Brown clings on the longer the stench of fear will haunt the Labour Party.

I have always stated summer 2009 for the General Electionas the best date. I see nothing to want to change my mind on that date.

It is funny but one man's greed and wickedness can hold an entire country from moving forward.

Whatever date Brown goes with; he will lose.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

mitch

They're toast at ANY time. Whistling in the dark won't do them any good.

Hawkeye

James said: "I suspect that Brown while not hanging on until the last possible day .... I’d go for a March or April 2010 election."

Why? I fail to see the logic in this. Why wait until two months before you have to go and then call the election? The only justification would be to announce a massive fiscal stimulus in the budget and then announce the election the day after hoping for a "buy-off" bounce, but such a manoeuver would be so transparent it would work against him.

An early election will be caused by infighting and back stabbing. The gap between the local election results and the party conference is what I deem to be the most dangerous time for Brown and where he may trip up. All he needs to do is aggravate the wrong minister and the venom will start. After that it is all over.

Brown's visceral hatred of the tories will stop him from letting them in one day earlier than possible. If Labour does not implode before Xmas then the very, very, very last day (3rd June IIRC?) is the next election date.

Trumpeter Lanfried

There are probably a dozen good reasons for calling an election in the Autumn, but they won't do it. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas.

GeoffH

Moraymint. It's not the hearts and minds of cabinet colleagues that he hold but their b*lls. And they've been neatly sliced off, pickled and are kept in a jar on his desk at No 10 as a permanent reminder at Cabinet meetings of the fate that awaits the rest of their organs should anyone think of holding him to account.

David Ossitt

He will dither; he will dally, he will huff and puff, but he is dead meat and he knows it.

He will never voluntarily go early; so unless there is insurrection in his cabinet that forces his hand (who would have the bottle) we have till May 2010 at the very earliest.

salieri

Richard: your second proviso is much more likely. The very concept of Easter betrays a privileged, reactionary, imperialist, non-inclusive mindset capable of causing offence to several minorities in today's multicultural society and above all the Muslim 'community'. What odds, anyone, against a (guillotined) NuLab Bill to abolish Easter before 2010?

The Watcher

May 6th 2010. Remember the date folks. That's the date of the English local elections and Callaghan and Major went on the equivalent dates in 1979 and 1997. There will be no point going on past that date.

Martin

A political insider explained it to me like this: Labour backbenchers know the games up and 50% of labour MP's could be out. So why not spin it out for the sake of the salary (plus tax-free "expenses") and of course the pension. Backbenchers will not push Brown into it.

Trumpeter Lanfried

On second thoughts, here's one possible (just possible) scenario:

Brown is told by the Treasury and the Bank of England that an application to the IMF is unavoidable. He decides on one of his coupes de theatre; call a General Election and leave the Tories to apply for the bail out. Then he can say, 'We had the situation under control and the Tories blew it.'

He may be willing, in other words, to put his hatred for the Tories and his fondness for pulling rabbits out of hats above the national interest.

Moraymint

GeoffH and David Ossit. Yes, in my own heart I know that there isn't a Cabinet member with the guts to initiate a coup. The problem is that Brown's Machiavellian brilliance has seen off any possible contender/pretender to his role. He has destroyed any and all competition, and any that might compete are terrified of a coup attempt backfiring and them ending up consigned to oblivion. Brown is the scariest political animal we've seen in a very long time. Even more scary is Brown's economic incompetence, the administrative incompetence of the Government as a whole and the rank inability of Parliament to hold any of them to account.

I've said it before, but the Blair/Brown/Campbell trio of bandits has a lot to answer for in terms of their wrecking of this country's political and public institutions and processes and, as a direct result, our economy.

Bring on the election, whilst hoping that the Tories rise to the occasion and tell us what they REALLY intend to do to fix the unholy mess bequeathed to them after yet another Labour-in-power debacle.

Will we ever learn?

Ray

New Labour will cling on to the bitter end. It will allow more time to rake in second homes allowances, ministerial salaries and parliamentary pensions before the plug is finally pulled.

JONNY

Like that other Gent in a Bunker he'll leave it till 5 minutes past midnight.

Rob C

I'm surprised so few see an early election as probable.

Brown can't win - the G20 was his last hand, so his only hope is to go early 'to pursue other interests on the world stage'. If he calls a GE AND stands down as leader, Labour could get a bounce in the polls and wrong-foot the Tories. Even if Labour loses, it won't be Brown's loss but his successor's, leaving the Tories to govern during the worst aftermath of the recession and inevitable tax rises. It would also allow Labour to claim that unemployment is 'higher under the Tories'. Sadly the electorate has a short memory and some will indeed attribute the pain to the medicine not the disease. This will allow Labour to perhaps spend less time in the wilderness than they will if they wait until 2010 and there are no 'green shoots'. Finally, given the probability that this recession is likely to be long, plus the amount of debt owed by businesses, individuals and the state, any recovery before late 2010/2011 is unlikely.

As I've said before, if I had any money left it would be on June 2009! The only fly in the ointment is Brown's deluded ego, but if I were DC, I'd certainly be prepared to run against someone other than GB...

teledu

Denis Cooper is right. Brown won't contemplate an Election until AFTER the Irish have had their Lisbon Constitution referendum re-run. Sorry all you Brits eager to have a chance at democracy via the ballot box - you've got to wait until the EU has got you by the short-and-curlies. Would a Conservative Govt. under Cameron correct this? No. Our political class, whether zanuLabour or Conservative want to be part of the EU gravy train and sit at the big table with other leaders. If that means the rest of us have to miss out on democracy - tough. The EU comes first, second and third. Once you've grasped that your there: very sad.

Chris lancashire

Bluebottle is dead right. The man is a coward. He will go down to the wire - and then go down deservedly.

Moraymint

All very depressing for the country that supposedly hosts the Mother of Parliaments. The mother of all economic and political shambles, more like.

Sometimes, I think it's a measure of our educational and intellectual decline that so many of our electorate still fail to see what a disastrous episode has been the Blair/Brown/Campbell experiment (on you and me).

I don't think this country has been in such a parlous state for at least a couple of generations and, yet, there is still a hard core of citizens who believe Brown has done a fair old job. Unbelievable.

Donna

Bring it on! He hasn't a hope in hell!

Hawkeye

Rob C siad: "If he calls a GE AND stands down as leader, Labour could get a bounce in the polls and wrong-foot the Tories. Even if Labour loses, it won't be Brown's loss but his successor's"

There are some problems with that scenario

1. Getting Brown to give up his dream job
2. A leadership change in Labour takes 3 months.
3. Who would be stupid enough to do the job?
4. The tories would have a field day and notice of the election.

It's too late now. It is either a snap election with Brown in charge or a messy change of leader with an election in the late autumn/early winter when Labour voters don't turn out.

Senior Labour people don't want the job - they want Brown to fail in it. Brown's buker staff are dedicated to one thing and one thing only - keeping Brown in power.

An early election can only be caused by the cabinet rejecting Brown publicly to destroy his credibility and then refusing to stand for the job of leader leaving a discredited PM with a dysfunctional cabinet.