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Saturday, 11th April 2009

The Tory plan for victory

James Forsyth 4:15pm

Today’s Telegraph piece on how the Tories plan to fight the next election is worth reading in full. But there are some points in it that deserve special attention. First, the Ashcroft marginal seats campaign is still delivering with the Tories enjoying a 14 point lead in the main marginals. Second, love-bombing the Lib Dems seems to have worked. There has been a swing of 15 percent from them to the Tories since the 2005 election. Third, the Tories are confident that a desire to kick Labour out will be enough to motivate the base. As one Tory strategist tells the paper, "There is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side. But it might put some voters off.”

These process stories are never particularly attractive and I expect many Coffee Housers will be frustrated by the cautious Tory mindset this one depicts. The idea that Cameron has been told the election can be won "without principles" is hardly inspiring. But it is worth remembering that most of the big election victories in recent years in either this country or the States have been delivered by campaigns that were relatively cautious.

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David Cameron, please note....

April 11th, 2009 4:30pm Report this comment

I don't expect the Tories to "bang on" about Europe but I want David Cameron to commit to a referendum on Lisbon pre or post ratification whatever happens in Ireland. That will be good enough for me and will stop me from voting UKIP.

I want a new Government and David Cameron is making progress, but I don't want a Conservative Government that is shackled by the same EU laws that Labour are.

Rhoda Klapp

April 11th, 2009 4:30pm Report this comment

Let's have a look at the numbers on June, what, 9th and see whether right-wingers are all indeed on-side.

Kevyn Bodman

April 11th, 2009 4:38pm Report this comment

'many CoffeeHousers will be frustrated.'

Good call James, I think you're right in that prediction.

Winning an election 'without principles'.
What's the point?
Holding office itself is not an admirable or creditable ambition.

Holding office to implement one's principled policies is an admirable and creditable ambition.

Note: nothing about civil liberties in the quote above.
So: immigration, The EU, civil liberties do not need to be discussed.

'Frustrated' is certainly one word that might be appropriate for some CoffeeHousers' reactions.

Angry, disappointed, scornful work for me, too.

In anticipation of other commenters who will come on and say that Cameron and the Conservatives need to win the election first, please tell me, what for?

Grumpy Old Man

April 11th, 2009 4:40pm Report this comment

"But it is worth remembering that most of the big election victories in recent years in either this country or the States have been delivered by campaigns that were relatively cautious"
Don't you mean, "touchy -feely campaigns that promised nothing concrete and failed to deliver even on that"? And do you think that this spurious, unprincipled approach has done much to cause todays' problems?

Verity

April 11th, 2009 4:47pm Report this comment

You think so, eh, James? Well Peter Oborne thinks not, and I agree with him. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1169141/PETER-OBORNE-Sorry-Tory-election-victory-far-certain.html

Not only is David Cameron weak, as in self-protective, but he simply does not relate to the voters. And he is clearly eying his own future in the EUSSR and isn't going to rock any boats across the Channel. Added to which, he cannot make reforms that need to be made because he is from the wrong class. Specifically, the placemen have to be evicted and the Lords returned to the hereditaries, who served us so well as a second chamber for so long. And it is the final court of appeal in the Commonwealth. But from his privileged background, Cameron would look as though he were pleading for his own.

In addition, he is a singularly uninspired individual with no heartening characteristics.

Oborne does not say what he thinks the outcome of the election will be, but he seems to doubt that it will be a Tory victory. I think it will be a hung parliament with perhaps 20 or 25 BNP MPs taking their seats, those seats taken equally from Labour and the Tories - one party the perpetrators of the wreckage we call Britain, and the other of which refuses to address the issues that are worrying 45m British adults.

ChrisD

April 11th, 2009 5:05pm Report this comment

James, Sky reporting that McBride has gone.
Nadine Dorries has now blogged on this too.

chris

April 11th, 2009 5:16pm Report this comment

Three things are needeed:

Pragmatism. Let's get in power and start trying to sort out the mess we are in. (The economy and the society). Forget Europe.

Tell the truth. No need at all to do otherwise.

Promise to get rid of all corruption and unfairness within the public sector, putting it on a level playing field with the private sector. Corruption includes politicians who 'haven't broken any rules'.

TGF UKIP

April 11th, 2009 6:25pm Report this comment

So far as this post is concerned it's obvious that Dave's masterplan is to "win" with a 50% turnout with only bluish pink or reddish pink social democrats bothering to vote.

Just watched the ITV 6 o'clock News and Downing Street is oh so predictably, comprehensively winning the McBride spin battle.

Why is Coulson?

Former Tory

April 11th, 2009 6:51pm Report this comment

I live in a hyper marginal (Lab held it in 2005 with a majority of 150 or something). After a lifetime of voting Con, I will no longer do so. Don't count on me or my neighbours, Cashcroft and Cam.

Verity

April 11th, 2009 7:14pm Report this comment

Kevyn Bodman - Heroic.

Tiberius

April 11th, 2009 7:53pm Report this comment

So many Coffee Housers don't do politics.

Do absorb James' final sentence.

Hysteria

April 11th, 2009 8:45pm Report this comment

to the point re "most elections are stealthy" - I would like to see the evidence that actually supports this. Thatcher? Reagan? even Obama... - these were fought on principles I think - and in the case of the first two at least actually achieved great things.

As Kevyn said - if we do not have principles, what's the point?

Chris - on the one hand you say forget the EU - then go on to say we must root out corruption. I think you will find plenty of evidence that these two positions are mutually incompatible.

Susan Hill

April 11th, 2009 9:41pm Report this comment

Verity. I was going to flag up the excellent Oborne article because I have been banging on here for weeks on the same theme.. the fat lady has not even warmed up. The last thing the Tories should do now is get complacent. And if I don`t get some good principled statements out of Cameron soon I shall.... no, I won`t vote Labour but I might withold my vote.
The serious problem he and Oborne have, as the 2 front men (not a problem shared by, say, Gove, Hague, Ken Clarke ) is that they are both TOFFS. They come from inherited wealth, they went to Eton and they can be knocked down by NuLab for those reasons alone. This is a huge handicap to start a run=up to a crucial general election. Of course they can`t lose their backgrounds, they`re stuck with them, and why would they want to anyway ? But they have to double make up for the handicap by presenting some strong, Conservative policies which will appeal to those who are sick of NuLab but who are by no means natural Tories. And I just don`t see it at the moment. Because I honestly don`t think they see it.
Oh and forget bringing back the Hereditaries to the Lords. You can slow down a ratchet but you can`t reverse it. That one is dead and gone and the clock will never be put back on it. Reform yes, sort it out, yes. But asking for the hereditary Peers back is wasting your breath.

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