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Wednesday, 15th April 2009

Any questions for Kate Barker?

Fraser Nelson 2:15pm

I'm interviewing Kate Barker at 4pm this afternoon as part of The Spectator's ongoing inquiry into the causes of the recession. She is a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, so she has to regulate what she can say and when she says it. But she's kindly agreed to be interviewed today, and we aim to publish what she says tomorrow.

I hear great things about her - which makes it all the more puzzling that her 2004 review on housing concluded that supply had to be vastly increased to meet the demand. In London, sure, but in depopulating towns like Blackpool? Didn't she think there was an asset boom in place? I'd be amazed if the thought didn't cross her mind - but it wasn't anywhere in that review. Has she changed her mind in retrospect? What does she think caused the housing boom, and should the Bank of England even try to put a floor under the current housing crash?

This is a rare chance to quiz an MPC member. So if you have any questions, let's have 'em...

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Sally Chatterjee

April 15th, 2009 2:26pm Report this comment

She was asked to look at housing supply, not the housing market as a whole and her remit specifically excluded demand, so the mania for housing, the boom itself, was off-limits. Was this deliberate by the Treasury?

Johnathan Pearce

April 15th, 2009 2:31pm Report this comment

Q, Do you think the BoE's reliance on an inflation target meant it was unable or unwilling to take account of other factors, like asset prices?

Do you think that what has happened should be pinned on capitalism/banks, or do you accept that the basic cause lies with central (ie, state-run) central banks?

How do you view the argument that says over-regulation and state bailouts, not laissez faire, encouraged unwise risk-taking?

How do you see the role of Alan Greenspans in the financial crisis? Do you think he should apologise?

Edward Gill

April 15th, 2009 2:31pm Report this comment

What role does she think the private rented sector of the housing industry can have tackling the escalating demand on social housing caused by the credit crunch?

MorrisOx

April 15th, 2009 2:51pm Report this comment

Ask her about the basis of the Government's housing demand forecasts. Academics questioned whether the Government had sufficiently robust data on which to base its figures. And do those figures still stand up now?

cjcjc

April 15th, 2009 3:03pm Report this comment

Why exactly has the MPC failed so dismally to control inflation over the past few years? Even now it remains above target! Why the terror of allowing prices to fall even a little? Does the MPC not realise that it is the most vulnerable who suffer from inflation?

C

April 15th, 2009 3:03pm Report this comment

The current planning system is overly prescriptive and less and less discretion on planning issues is allowed to Local Planning Authorities. Shouldn't central direction of planning be rolled back to allow LPA's greater freedom in making their own planning decisions, albeit, within a (less directive, more flexible) strategic framework?

Alex R

April 15th, 2009 3:04pm Report this comment

It seems obvious, in hindsight, that your seminal report into housing supply should have focused more on demand and the importance that the availability of mortgage finance played in the rise and fall of house prices.

Who's decision was it to focus solely on supply factors? Where you prevented from looking at demand side factors?

Alex R

April 15th, 2009 3:06pm Report this comment

Sir John Gieve was your colleague on the BoE’s MPC. While no doubt an honourable and intelligent man, do you believe – as a career civil servant, with no apparent background in economics or finance – that he was best suited to the role as Dep Gov for Financial Stability?

Alex R

April 15th, 2009 3:08pm Report this comment

Looking at the next house price bubble/crash, do you have any comments to make on the Tory’s plans to scrap the regional planning framework established by this government and allow local councils to reverse any relaxation recommended in the greenbelt?

Alex R

April 15th, 2009 3:09pm Report this comment

Tony Blair recently told an audience in Yale that he has concluded that the 10 years of economic growh delivered under him was "luck"? Do you agree?

Kate

April 15th, 2009 3:12pm Report this comment

Some questions:

What criteria should we use to judge whether quantitative easing is working?

Why is there not more disclosure on who used the special liquidity scheme, for what, and when.

Who chooses what assets the BoE buys with its quantitative easing money? How do they make these selections?

Measures like QE have blurred the distinction between fiscal and monetary policy completely. Does she think this has impacted the independence of the BoE?

oliver king

April 15th, 2009 3:13pm Report this comment

Given the way the MPC cut rates so agressively in late 2008 is she willing to accept her share of the blame for getting interest rate policy so wrong for so long last year? Does she accept Danny Blanchflower was right?

Melanie

April 15th, 2009 3:14pm Report this comment

To what extent does she see the housing bubble as a failure of monetary policy? Should it have been kept in check and if so, how? Or did she think in 2004 that it was in check?

Roger Clague

April 15th, 2009 3:14pm Report this comment

Who decided to devalue the pound?

Don Logan

April 15th, 2009 3:18pm Report this comment

Would she explain what she thinks an asset bubble is? And what could have been done to avoid one in the housing market and what should be done to avoid one next time round?

Mike

April 15th, 2009 3:23pm Report this comment

But even in London there should have been dynamic modelling - something dear to your heart. I am sure demand is dropping off in London because it is a mobile market led by jobs. With employment prospects diminished in the City - the driving force of London growth for the past ten years - people are voting with their feet, accelerating the deflation. Barker's report seemed to assume demand was a constant in the equation. too much central planning in this country seems more suited to 30s Russia - not wholly inappropriate given the man in charge.

Neil Craig

April 15th, 2009 3:26pm Report this comment

She is right about housing & you are wrong. House prices have gone up 4 times compared to the RPI over the last century & this is entirely because of government regulation.

Ask her if Britainn could solve our housing problems without subsidy simply by allowing mass produced modular houses without everybody, his councillor & his lawyer being able to prevent new house building or mandate the sort of silly redesigns that stop us mass producing houses as modern as Henry Ford's Model T?

PayDirt

April 15th, 2009 4:16pm Report this comment

How close are we to a state of emergency in which case the Govt would have the right to set interest rates rather than the MPC?

What is the current weighting of the primary aim to keep inflation in check relative to the secondary aim of assisting the Govt growth targets?

How does the actual cumulative quantitative easing affect the MPC’s deliberations?

Tiberius

April 15th, 2009 4:22pm Report this comment

Would you agree that Prescott's policy of building high rise blocks horizontally in rural suburbs is an act of vandalism by a chippy ex sailor?

FRANK O'CONNELL

April 15th, 2009 4:45pm Report this comment

Who audits the Bank of England ?

Nick Leaton

April 15th, 2009 4:59pm Report this comment

How are they going to pay back the debts?

What are the current losses on the purchases of banks?

Why are they charging such a low rate for the guarantees on the toxic debts?

What's the current forecast for losses on the toxic assets?

Are they going to pull the plug on more borrowing for the government?

Quantative easing.
Just how does buying back debt one week, and then issuing new debt the week after ease anything?

Tim Hedges

April 15th, 2009 5:11pm Report this comment

Qn: were you concerned when the inflation target was changed by Gordon Brown from RPI to CPI and do you in retrospect think that members of the committee should have spoken out?

mark

April 16th, 2009 1:10pm Report this comment

How does the bank adjust for the very sharp differences in interest rates available for different Loan to Value ratios - eg 85% borrowing rate around 2% higher than rate for 60%?
Given the fall in house prices, how concerned are they about the growing number of people trapped on standard variable rates?
Why has the Bank of England been unable to ensure the vast majority of rate cuts get passed on to most borrowers when the Reserve Bank of Australia (with a very similar scale of household debt) has managed to ensure almost the entirety of rate cuts got passed on?
Why do they use the 60% LTV interest rate for macro-economic modelling purposes when only a small proportion of UK borrowers use that rate? Would not a median Standard Variable Rate be a better guide to actual UK rates?
What happens if inflation fails to fall below target? Can they continue to print money to finance the Government if they need to raise rates to deal with inflation problems?

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