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Monday, 20th April 2009

Budget 2009: Alistair Darling should announce a bold Budget

Tony Dolphin 6:05pm

100 years ago, one of Alistair Darling’s predecessors as Chancellor, David Lloyd George, was faced with a tough set of circumstances. He chose to be bold and proposed the most radical – and arguably the greatest – UK budget, establishing the principle of a progressive tax system to finance public spending. The budget was such a success that it was given a soubriquet – the ‘People’s Budget’.

Alistair Darling should be as bold as David Lloyd George was 100 years ago.

He should announce a £1,000 increase in the personal tax allowance and increases in benefits and child tax credits to ensure that the Government achieves its goal of halving the number of children in relatively low-income households by 2010-11. This will cost about £10 billion a year.

He should announce tough limits on the growth of public spending from 2010-11, while making it clear that extra resources will continue to be made available for priority areas such as education, health and childcare. Major projects, such as the replacement of Trident submarines, will have to be cancelled.

He should reaffirm the moral case for progressive taxation to finance public spending. He should increase the top rate of tax to 50 per cent for taxable incomes of more than £150,000. At the same time, to ensure the rich pay their fair share of taxes, there should be a major clampdown on tax avoidance, tax reliefs and tax havens.

He should announce plans to examine the feasibility of a tax on carbon emissions and a land value tax.

Raising existing taxes and introducing new ones may sound like a sure route to political unpopularity, but the fiscal position leaves the Chancellor with little choice. It may reassure him to know that Lloyd George’s ‘People’s Budget’ helped revive the Liberal Party’s political fortunes, showing that boldness can deliver votes as well as economic results.

Tony Dolphin is a Senior Economist at the ippr.

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AndyLeeds

April 20th, 2009 6:24pm Report this comment

He wont do anything of the sort. Taxes will have to be raised and spending cut, but he wont do either with any degree of conviction. He is too much a wimp and the idiot Brown is busy interfering.

It will fall to a Tory Government to sort out the total mess created by Darling's idiot neighbour in Downing Street. Brown will leave office the greatest failure ever to hold either of those two great offices of State. In earlier times he would have ended up in the Tower. What a pity it is still not so.

Chris

April 20th, 2009 6:27pm Report this comment

So long, Dolphin, and thanks for all the fish. What on earth is this robotic lefty garbage doing on the Speccie's blog?

Hysteria

April 20th, 2009 6:34pm Report this comment

where to start......?

let's try here

"major clampdown on tax avoidance, tax reliefs and tax havens"

Er - what? Tax avoidance is simply individuals working in their own self interest using the rules legislated in Parliament.

if you want to maximise your tax, there is nothing to stop anyone simply sending a cheque to HMRC....

Yes - maybe that's the ticket - just have the government take 100% of all our money and just send us some vouchers to pay for food....

Winston Smith

April 20th, 2009 6:37pm Report this comment

So in summary, more of the same that has got us in this mess, encouraging people to be even more dependant on benefits by further removing the incentive to work. (a measly allowance in personal taxation that would benefit workers by £200 a year less increased NI , whilst increasing benefits far beyond that, good grief.)

Meanwhile punish the people who will bring jobs with a 50% top rate (on top of zero personal allowance)

And you're a Senior Economist. no wonder we're in such a mess.

Sally Chatterjee

April 20th, 2009 6:39pm Report this comment

"Alastair Darling" and "bold" will never belong in the same sentence.

Ben Elford

April 20th, 2009 6:45pm Report this comment

Why not be truly bold, and steal all the Liberal Democrats' thunder and then some by a truly breathtaking increase in personal allowances?

This would deliver the fiscal stimulus that his VAT reduction dismally failed to provide. It might even salvage a few votes: many of those who turn away from Labour will go for the BNP, some will stray to the Liberal Democrat party, and some will stay at home. So why not pick up a few of those errant Liberal voters?

Jonathan_T

April 20th, 2009 6:47pm Report this comment

What a load of utter tosh - this is so patently ridiculous I had to check it isn't April fools day.

As has been pointed out in just about every media outlet (and in particular by Fraser for many years), the biggest problem the country faces is excessive and wasteful government spending.

Radical cuts are needed, coupled with major public sector reforms to ensure that the money that is spent works well.

Personal allowance increases are, however a good idea. Fund by abolishing / scaling back tax credits.

A truly bold budget would lay the groundwork for major reforms under the forthcoming Conservative administration. Darling could then go down as a decent Chancellor at a tough time. Unfortunately, this isn't going to happen.

Alex

April 20th, 2009 6:48pm Report this comment

I hope Darling does mention everything mentioned by Dolphin ... the surest way to ensuring that the Tories maintain/strengthen their enormous poll lead

Pete

April 20th, 2009 6:51pm Report this comment

I have rarely read such a load of tripe!

Has it even occured to you , Mr Dolphin, that more than enough money has been spent on health and education and with half decent management improvements could be made together with cost savings?

I like your phraseology:

'halving the number of children...'

Is King Herod your hero?

You talk about 'increasing benefits' - don't you understand that we are paying people not to work when we should be encouraging them to actually go to work?

As for the limits on *growth * of public spending and abolishing Trident, they are only beaten for idiocy by your luducrous suggestions about taxing carbon emmissions and a land tax!

If your are truly a 'Senior Economist' then God help us.

paracelsus

April 20th, 2009 6:53pm Report this comment

What a load of crap!

Just what we want in the middle of a deep recession, higher taxes for the wealth creators and more taxes for everybody else. You really have to wonder how these people get jobs in the first place.

The sooner we get rid of the loony left the better. Good riddance to the lot of them!

Jonathan_T

April 20th, 2009 7:02pm Report this comment

PS

Interestingly the author thought that there was too much debt in the UK economy as long ago as 2004. Wonder what he thinks now?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/article1047672.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1

Obnoxio The Clown

April 20th, 2009 7:14pm Report this comment

What a load of drivel. No wonder the country's in such a mess:

"He should announce tough limits on the growth of public spending"

EPIC FAIL!

We don't need limits on growth. We need CUTS!

Elf

April 20th, 2009 7:22pm Report this comment

"Lloyd George’s ‘People’s Budget’ helped revive the Liberal Party’s political fortunes". Not for long it didn't.

Travis Bickle

April 20th, 2009 7:34pm Report this comment

JobSeekers allowance has just been increased by £4 a week, as stated earlier a £1000 increase in Personal Allowances would benefit "hard working families" by slightly less than this. No wonder we need so many immigrants to do the work the native British won't get out of bed to do.

A budget for further soocial engineering, and sod the *working* people.

Forlornehope

April 20th, 2009 7:38pm Report this comment

It was George Bernard Shaw, no Tory, who described his profession as "Tax collector on two and a half percent commission." Frank Field made the point that there is a maximum tax take and that it is about 40%. Any attempt to go above this fails because people simply change their behaviour. So what is that as a total government income and that's what's there to spend. Really quite simple. Bring back the Iron Lady.

Robert P

April 20th, 2009 7:39pm Report this comment

Hmmm...the truth is that this government used the hyped economy to spend like a drunkard at a bar. The biggest problem, but "untouchable" because of our public sector mindset representatives, is the growth in public sector job and pensions burden...

I was amazed to hear from a GP that we will be funding his six figure plus pension.

Jask

April 20th, 2009 7:44pm Report this comment

If it seems fairly certain that raising the top rate to 45% will decrease revenues then how will 50% help? Why is that people like Dolphin just cannot understand that incentives matter? If you take half a person's income then they will either stop working so hard (and earn less money and therefore pay less tax) or they will leave the UK.

William Blake's Ghost

April 20th, 2009 7:53pm Report this comment

Alistair Darling should be as bold as David Lloyd George was 100 years ago.

Wasn't 1909 the last budget the Liberals ever gave?

It was so radical the electorate have not invited them to govern since!

Good plan Mr Flipper!

Jupiter

April 20th, 2009 8:03pm Report this comment

Who is this numpty? He is just as mad as the prime mentalist.

Mitch

April 20th, 2009 8:21pm Report this comment

Ho ho ho dream on and read the small print,this will have browns dirty paw prints all over it.

Tiberius

April 20th, 2009 8:27pm Report this comment

I much prefer lamb to dolphin steaks, but either are easily put to the slaughter.

Mike, Brighton

April 20th, 2009 8:30pm Report this comment

"He should increase the top rate of tax to 50 per cent for taxable incomes of more than £150,000."
Yeah and that will raise precisely zero in additional tax revenues. Tony, just so I'm clear that's NADA, NIL, NONE.
Tony I work in the City and it's very easy to minimise your tax. E&Y, KPMG, St James Place, Goldmans, DBPB, CSPB and all their mates offer tax avoidance schemes. About £5,000 per £100K of tax avoided. You even get a nice "Tax avoidance scheme number" to put on your tax return just to make it easier for HMRC. Easy! Puting taxes to 50% just makes it more attractive. Rather than getting back £40K per 100K put in, I will get £50K. Cheers! Top man!

"At the same time, to ensure the rich pay their fair share of taxes, there should be a major clampdown on tax avoidance, tax reliefs and tax havens."
If you are not happy with what you pay simply send a cheque to HMRC or you can BACs them or use eBillPay.

I note the words "Land Value Tax" - that really is organised theft, but not unusual coming from lefties like you.

Did you get you O'Level in Economics? My 10 year old could have written a a more incisive article.

Nicholas

April 20th, 2009 8:33pm Report this comment

So let me get this straight. I have to pay more tax so the government can subsidise unelected dickheads like you to dream up more reasons why I should pay even more tax?

The most hilarious thing on your website is the word "independent". Government by stealth. Government by other means. "ippr has long argued the case for bringing government closer to citizens." Close enough already, thank you. More septic tank than think tank. Please go away.

And btw what is the difference between a "community pub" and a "pub"?

Ted

April 20th, 2009 9:26pm Report this comment

A little bit of historical fact versus "It may reassure him to know that Lloyd George’s ‘People’s Budget’ helped revive the Liberal Party’s political fortunes, showing that boldness can deliver votes as well as economic results."

In 1906 the Liberals won 49% of the vote, gained 214 seats and had a majority of 133, one of the great landslide elections.

In 1910 there were two elections. in January the Liberals lost 123 seats and though they had 2 more seats than Conservatives (though getting 3% less votes) it was a hung Parliament, Liberals continued in Government with Irish Nationalist support.

In December 1910 there was no real change, 0.7% increase in Liberal votes but they lost 2 seats and were still 3% or so less popular than the Conservatives.

By next election in 1918 the Liberal Party was split and on its way to doom.

The People's Budget, whatever its benefits, didn't save the Liberals. Asquith went to war in 1914 some say out of electoral weakness.

Ivy Eileen

April 20th, 2009 9:28pm Report this comment

"ensure the rich pay their fair share of taxes, there should be a major clampdown on tax avoidance, tax reliefs ....".

O.K., someone earning £150k with tax @ 40% will pay £60k in tax. If they earn £300k, then at the same 40% tax rate they pay £120k in tax. That seems to me to be their "fair share". But if the second £150k is taxed @ a 50% rate then the overall tax bill is £135k, which seems to me to be more than a "fair" share. It's an unequal proportion.

Mr. Dolphin also equates tax avoidance with tax evasion. Does he realise that deciding not to work harder and so not earning more money is tax avoidance. It's perfectly legal ... and how are you going to tax someone (or penalise them through the tax system) for not putting in voluntary overtime ?

Overall, this article displays the same mind-set that Brown has - (i.e.) he (Brown)believes that he knows better than you how to spend your money.

TrevorsDen

April 20th, 2009 10:00pm Report this comment

Good try Specie to keep us on our toes.

The top level of tax 100 years ago was based on the equivalent of 400k in todays money. Thats just how much redistribution has leached its way into ordinary people -- and income tax was about 4% in the £.

Thats how much 'benefits' are already costing us without adding billions more.

Scrapping Trident will not save any money - it would just be added to other defence expenditure.

Senior Economist? Ah that explains it - Vince Cable was a Senior Economist once.

Tom Pride

April 20th, 2009 10:44pm Report this comment

Is that the “Left Wing” statist, collectivist, state feudalist IPPR, so beloved of the BBC, advocating its regressive policies to drag us back to the worst State excesses of the 20 Century?

Just another Healey budget from the 1970s. Remember the tax rates before the Lady cleared up the last Labour mess?

0 - 750 25%
751 - 8000 33%
8001 - 9000 40%
9001 - 10000 45%
10001 - 11000 50%
11001 - 12500 55%
12501 - 14000 60%
14001 - 16000 65%
16001 - 18500 70%
18501 - 24000 75%
over - 24000 83%

For so called “unearned” income I.E. savings income in the range £1,701 to £ 2,250 add 10% to the above rates and in excess of £2,250 add 15% - giving the infamous Labour top rate of 98%. Confiscation of income and thus the benefit of incoming generating assets.

That is where your increase in tax rates ends up – an all powerful state trampling on the individual, confiscating private property and installing reigns of terror to force policies on reluctant populations which run contrary to the human condition. Your regressive policies belong in the 20 Century.

Out of interest who funds this cr@p?

Polawtical Animal

April 20th, 2009 11:24pm Report this comment

"It may reassure him to know that Lloyd George’s ‘People’s Budget’ helped revive the Liberal Party’s political fortunes, showing that boldness can deliver votes as well as economic results."

If only. The Liberal Party LOST seats at the 1910 election (it went from 397 to 274). Lloyd George never again formed a majority government, and within a few years the Liberals were a spent force in British politics.

Another triumph for the left.

mac

April 20th, 2009 11:29pm Report this comment

Ron Lefty, a long-time QCA examiner writes:
"An A* essay. Brilliant for a 16 year old. A first class brain with a truly remarkable grasp of British economic history and contemporary realities. This student will go far. Another G. Brown or E. Balls in the making".

James/Pete; I was going to suggest that you keep the Peter Simple whimsy pieces for Fridays, but then I re-read this shallow tosh and I felt depressed: frighteningly, this guy's serious, isn't he?
Hellzbellz.

penlan

April 21st, 2009 8:47am Report this comment

If Mr Dolphin would consult the history books,one of the reasons that Ll-G had to find so much revenue was to pay for more dreadnoughts for the Royal Navy.I doubt if he would have cancelled Trident.

basementcat

April 21st, 2009 9:43am Report this comment

I'm pretty sure I heard the exact same spiel from Polly Toynbee on CiF at the Grauniad. It's actually scarier to read it here - at least I can dismiss her as a champagne socialist.

idle

April 21st, 2009 10:00am Report this comment

Mother warned me not to trust people who called themselves 'Tony'.

John Lea

April 21st, 2009 10:45am Report this comment

When will people learn! They elect a socialist government who waste vast amounts of tax payers' money on 'essential services' without improving them one iota, and effectively bring the nation to its knees in the process (same thing happened in 78). The nation then votes in a Tory govt, who rescue the economy by cutting taxes and services. They're unpopular of course but generally accepted as a necessary evil in order to establish economic stability. Once the nation is financially secure again, the same electorate vote in Labour, who...well, you get the idea. And so the cycle continues.

Also, Mr Dolphin, by increasing benefits and child allowance, you won't raise children out of poverty, merely encourage layabouts to a) have children, and b) live off the state.

Sorry, but you're an idiot!

Swim with the fishes

April 21st, 2009 11:43am Report this comment

http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20041108/dolphin.html

Dave the tory

April 21st, 2009 12:01pm Report this comment

Mr Dolphin works for the Institute For Public Policy Research, a PROGRESSIVE think tank. Nuff said

John Lea

April 21st, 2009 12:21pm Report this comment

Just read that the Child Poverty Action Group (GPAG) are also urging Alistair Darling to announce a £3 billion-plus boost to benefits and tax credits for low income families. Here's a radical idea: if you can't afford children, don't have them! And certainly don't expect everyone else to support them.

Chris Cook

April 21st, 2009 8:55pm Report this comment

Here's me thinking that everyone here would favour a tax which Milton Friedman himself said is the "least worst" tax.

ie a tax on land rental values.

Get rid of rates, inheritance tax, and a large chunk of income tax, and cut down on deadweight bureaucracy.

Nothing Labour about LVT - they only tax earned income.

Mr to you

April 26th, 2009 8:37pm Report this comment

Unlike income tax which is a tax on effort (and is theft) and VAT which is a tax on trade (and theft) LVT not theft, it is a sensible and robust proposal to claim rent on the land use for the betterment of a non welfare society.

Yes people will still own the land rights, be able to pass them on without a theft tax and make improvement to land without a theft tax on the improvements. It will encourage creativity, wealth creation and stabilise land values. Unstable land values have caused the repeated wealth destruction for 200 years.

A single tax solution with LVT and small government go together.

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