A big poll boost for the Lib Dems

Mark

The jump in LibDem support seems to me to be partly a correction of an earlier rogue low figure and partly some former Labour supporters feeling unable to vote for a party which was involved in plans to smear its opponents but cannot bring themselves to vote Tory.

Note, however, the absence of any "Brown bounce" from the G20.

Prodicus

The Anybody but the Conservatives vote will go to the Cable Knows His Stuff And Who’s This Bloke Clegg party. The left-ish vote will split down the middle leaving Labour with an historically small rump. Tory voting intention will hold steady-ish, rising a bit whenever DC scores a big hit or GB makes a major cock-up, surging at the last mo (either seen or unseen, my money being on the latter) to a healthy Conservative majority. Do the bookies take bets on whether a Dimbleby or Bishop Snow will actually say the F word on screen?

Paul

If your analysis is correct, Peter, then what you are in effect saying is this:

From the data shown, 9% of those questioned vote for other parties (or don't know). One quearter of those have switched allegiance to the lib-dems (+8 -5 -1 = 2)

That's not realistic, in my view.

Pete Hoskin

Paul: my analysis is "wait and see". Implicitly, I was was trying to make the point that this is probably something of a rogue finding. Should have been clearer.

Lloyd George knew my father

In today's Guardian La Toynbee (who, be it ever remembered, once deserted her beloved Liebour for the SDP) offers the 'People's Budget' of the last Liberal Chancellor and PM, Lloyd George, as a suitable role model/straw for Darling & Bruin to clutch at. A straw in the wind?
My own MP, a leftish Lib Dem front bencher, recently told me that in the event of a hung Parliament there was no way that the LDs would support Liebour - but he could see the makings of a Con-Lib coalition around a Green agenda. The last PM to preside over such a coalition, of course, was none other than...Lloyd George who actually built the council houses that Darling is promising.

Chris lancashire

voting Liberal = none of the above

Andy Carpark

One theory is that the Lib Dems are on the up but then there are those who say they are on the way down and even some edgy iconoclasts who say that they are just bob-bob-bobbing along. It's a mad world, my masters but one thing's for sure: time will tell. Polls, eh? Love 'em, leave 'em, but it seems you can't ignore them. And now to see us through to the news, here's Bachman Turner Overdrive with a little foot-tappin' number called 'You ain't seen nothin' yet'.

Hawkeye

Paul said: "(+8 -5 -1 = 2)...That's not realistic, in my view."

All these polls have an error margin of around 2-3% and the headline figures rarely make mention of UKIP and the BNP whose vote percentages are small.

As a result, movements in the percentages rarely add up to zero. You have to read the incredibly boring fine detail to try and get an idea of the voter movement. You never find out for sure.

Denis Cooper

Prodicus has indirectly touched on a point which is often neglected: that Labour activists are taught, and many Liberal Democrats agree, that the paramount aim must always be to "keep the Tory out". And they will collude in an attempt to achieve that, as they did in 1997.

Maybe it's time for the Tories to inquire when the independent Electoral Commission expects to come to a final decision about the £2.4 million the Liberal Democrats received from Michael Brown before the last election, four years ago now, and maybe also question whether it's justifiable for a party to keep all the interest accrued on a donation which is later ruled to be impermissible.

The most recent News Release on this topic is still that of 27 October 2006, now archived:

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/news-and-media/news-releases/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/statement-on-fifth-avenue-27.10.06

Meanwhile, the independent Electoral Commission is cock-a-hoop that the High Court has ordered a re-hearing of a case against UKIP:

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/news-and-media/news-releases/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/statement-from-the-electoral-commission3

"Commenting on the decision, a Commission spokesperson said: We sought judicial review of the original decision of the Magistrates Court because we thought that it was important for parties, the public and for the Commission for there to be greater clarity about how the rules on forfeiture of impermissible political donations are applied."

But not in all cases, apparently.

seb

Routinely, apologists for Labour argue that, should Brown win in 2010 despite doing very badly, say, in England, this will be acceptable because the combined Lib-Dem and Labour vote total will amount to more than fifty percent. Whoopee. The nation, therefore, must be clearly leftist.

The idea that the Lib-Dems are, like Labour, leftist has always puzzled me. Lib-Dems themselves might fall for this tripe, but this, surely, is because one of the few policies they do share with Labour is 'Anyone But the Tories'. This is anile cant rather than a reflection of any real economic or social policy the party believes in. The Lib-Dems are centrist libertarians and have little in common with New Labour or, I'd say, Old Labour.

Susan Hill

Vince Cable-so-Able doesn`t make a summer. There is no point to the LibDems whatsoever.

Cottage Pie

Labour will suffer more than the opinion polls suggest at the General Election as many Labour voters will not bother to vote. Turnout for the Conservative voters will be high as they are determined to get rid of this Government. I predict a landslide.

Steve.W

Write to your MP they say. Well if you wish to stray further and write to a party HQ then it gets interesting. The LibDems say they will abolish the ID card being pushed by Nulabour. So a nice liberal stand on a point of principle there then. But there are aspects of the EU, 'e borders' for example, that could arouse your suspicion. In my experience if you write to the LibDems on this or any other subject involving their 'beloved' EU then they don't reply. It's all well and good pretending protocol prevents them replying, it does not. They're just being slippery.

Chris

"No point to the Lib Dems?" How about the only pro-Europe party and the only party that's not anti-freedom. You only have to hear how Tories use "human rights," as a dirty word, while Labour destroys every one of our freedoms to realise that there's no sense in voting for either of the main parties.

Hysteria

@ Chris "pro-Europe party and the only party that's not anti-freedom"

say what? Pro-Europe and pro-freedom (I think that's what you mean) is an oxymoron surely?

Cogito Ergosum

God Almighty will you essay writing journos ever begin to listen to scientific advice about probabilities and random variations.

One sample differs from another purely at random even when there is NO underlying shift in public opinion.

TGF UKIP

Of course the Tories could use the European elections to nail the LibDems as THE european party and the gang that have supported Labour in every one of is pro Brussels moves including the denial of the promised referndum on the Constitution.

But there again the thought of the part time Cameron Tories nailing anything or anyone ..... ho, ho ho!

TGF UKIP

Of course the Tories could use the European elections to nail the LibDems as THE european party and the gang that have supported Labour in every one of is pro Brussels moves including the denial of the promised referndum on the Constitution.

But there again the thought of the part time Cameron Tories nailing anything or anyone ..... ho, ho ho!