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Tuesday, 21st April 2009

RPI: Deflation is here

James Forsyth 10:54am

The Retail Price Index for March was -0.4 percent, the first time this measure has been negative since 1960. The Consumer Price Index, however, is 2.9 percent--considerably over the government's 2 percent target.

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Sally Chatterjee

April 21st, 2009 11:03am Report this comment

No so. Negative inflation is not deflation. Deflation is a persistent trend in falling prices. Perhaps this will come but don't fall into the trap of calling it deflation on one month's numbers. Besides the CPI, the Bank of England's target, is still 2.9% and the "core CPI" actually rose.

I'm not an economist, just wary of data being manipulated for headlines or policy.

Thrasymachus

April 21st, 2009 11:08am Report this comment

You could have fooled me... Ice Cream was £2.50 a scoop in Regent's Park yesterday.

Pete Hoskin

April 21st, 2009 11:13am Report this comment

Thrasymachus: it's £2.50 for a "99" ice-cream in St James's Park. Depressing...

The Laughing Cavalier

April 21st, 2009 11:17am Report this comment

But the cost of living still rises. Brown's statistics have been dishonest from day 1.

rmh

April 21st, 2009 11:21am Report this comment

EXCLUDE HOUSE PRICE AND HOUSING COSTS AS THEY MAKE THE FIGURES "FALSE".

Sorry for shouting but deflation is a total myth.

Publius

April 21st, 2009 11:32am Report this comment

So an other letter to the Chancellor from the BOE then, explaining why inflation has OVER-shot the target.

I mean, if the gov't isn't going to use its "preferred measure" (CPI) then why the hell don't they just scrap it?

Answer: because having two measures allows them to pick and mix to suit the agenda.

London Calling

April 21st, 2009 11:52am Report this comment

Outside my local Bank a begger asked me 'have you got any Notes?'
now thats what I call change :0...

Chris lancashire

April 21st, 2009 11:54am Report this comment

With a 30% currency devaluation and a huge imported goods bill deflation simply will not happen.

Andy Carpark

April 21st, 2009 11:55am Report this comment

Oh, marvellous. Ignore the RPI during the property bubble and rehabilitate it during the property slump.

`When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less.'

THX1138

April 21st, 2009 12:08pm Report this comment

I bought an "e" last week at it was only £5, last time I bought one five years ago it was £10. The RDI- retail drug index is most definitely showing deflationary tendencies.

To quote the great Frank Gallagher.

"Make poverty history..... make drugs cheaper"

Desmond McCann

April 21st, 2009 12:57pm Report this comment

I would have hoped for better from you. It is the CHANGE in the Retail Price Index which is -0.4%. The Index is just a series of numbers based on 100 at some date in the past. If the RPI was negative people would be paying us money to take the goods from them. I know the BBC perpetuates this ignorance, but that is no excuse for you.

Demetrius

April 21st, 2009 1:07pm Report this comment

Tripe and onions. Even the consumer price index is loaded against most people, notably those at the wrong end of the income scales. For some us the real inflation index is hitting aroun 7%, and my budget shows it for the coming year.
http://thecynicaltendency.blogspot.com/

Verity

April 21st, 2009 1:25pm Report this comment

Andy Carpark, IIRC, it was the Caterpillar who made that statement while smoking a hookah.

Number Plate, your constant efforts to make yourself appear "interesting" are like fingernails on a blackboard. For God's sake give it a rest. Can't they use you over at CiF?

HJ

April 21st, 2009 2:12pm Report this comment

We could have had negative RPI inflation at any time in the past 15 years had interest rates been cut so far and so fast.

This effect will drop out of the figures after 12 months. Many other prices are increasing, partly due to the fall in the pound. Remember too that public sector inflation is rife, but that because you pay for the public sector mainly through taxes and not at the point of delivery, this is never included in the figures.

hfc

April 21st, 2009 4:37pm Report this comment

No, Verity. It was Humpty Dumpty as Andy said.

I'm sure your local library can help you with the English classics.

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