Darling's dodgy forecasts
Peter Hoskin 1:45pm
Lightning does strike twice. Following the dodgy forecasts in last year's PBR, Alistair Darling has repeated the trick - giving growth predictions in the Budget that are optimistic to the point of madness. Ok, you can quibble over whether the economy will start growing by the "end of this year", but 1.25 percent growth in 2010 and 3.5 percent growth from 2011 onwards is dubious in the extreme. As Jeff Randall said on Sky just now, "no-one in the City believes that."
The difference this time round is that the political fallout is further in the future. When Darling made his PBR forecasts, he had to start backtracking - embarrassingly - almost immediately. With forecasts for 2011 and beyond, the backtracking can wait. All Brown & Co. are concerned with is making it look like they'll not only get us through the recession, but will lead the country into a Brave New World after that. If that helps them hang onto power, then mission accomplished. But if it doesn't, then economic growth in 2011 becomes the Tories' problem.
Previous
Nick
April 22nd, 2009 2:01pm Report this commentWell, Polly Toynbee is going to be very upset.
"Be bold, Chancellor, and you could be our Lloyd George. By emulating the spirit of the People's Budget, Darling can give voters a rock-solid reminder of what Labour is for."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/apr/21/peoples-budget-darling-2009
James Burdett
April 22nd, 2009 2:12pm Report this commentThe IMF have just shot his growth figures for this year and next so ergo his borrowing figures too.
Dungeekin
April 22nd, 2009 2:16pm Report this commentI think the last sentence of this piece is the key part.
'Economic growth in 2011 becomes the Tories' problem'.
This wasn't, in my opinion, a Budget designed to save Labour now. They know it's too late.
It was designed to leave all the problems to the next Government, with an eye on 2015 or later.
In political terms, I think this Budget may well have been sheer genius.
D
Bruce, UK
April 22nd, 2009 2:18pm Report this commentNick at 2:01
"Darling can give voters a rock-solid reminder of what Labour is for"
He did
oldtimer
April 22nd, 2009 2:19pm Report this commentAn utterly abject, dishonest performance from Darling to match his unbelieveable budget predictions. Darling and Brown are a national disgrace.
Michael Booth
April 22nd, 2009 2:26pm Report this commentNick
I think Polly Toynbee has got exactly what she wished for - Labour has given a solid reminder of what they are for... SELF PRESERVATION.
TrevorsDen
April 22nd, 2009 2:33pm Report this commentThe IMF have shot Darlings growth forecasts full of holes. This is a govt and a budget half way up a river in Egypt.
As I forecast, the IFS are pointing out that 3 billion of the 5 billion of cuts/savings announced are going to fall on health and education.
I just wonder how long this fantasyland, head-in-the-sand budget can hold up.
But come on - admit it you hacks. Darling is Browns poodle. He is weak inept and pathetic. A hopeless inadequate.
Trevorsden
April 22nd, 2009 3:07pm Report this commentNo, Dungeekin
If Tories win and if they are very very quick they can nail labour by exposing the way they have fiddled the books and if they strike early they can get the bad news out early and clearly blame labour, just like 79, but in spades (or is that in SpAds)
Dungeekin
April 22nd, 2009 4:10pm Report this comment@Trevorsden:
Agreed - in the short term.
However, it's always seemed to me that the Electorate's political memory in this country is rather short.
So the Tories would provide their proof, the public throw their hands up in disgust - and within two years will be moaning about tax levels, NHS cuts or whatever conveniently forgetting the actions that necessitated said cuts.
It may take two terms. But I stand by the idea that it's NuLieBore's plan.
D
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