The growth lie
Fraser Nelson 3:03pmThe first Big Lie in this Budget - and, frankly, I'd be surprised to find a bigger one - is that the UK economy will enter a sustained three-year economic sprint of 3.5% A YEAR from 2011. David Cameron instantly and brilliantly ridiculed this as the theory of the "trampoline recovery".
We journalists just had an on-the-record briefing with the Treasury where this was questioned. The Treasury official claimed that no one is really forecasting beyond two years, so there's nothing to compare it against. Untrue. Five-year-forecasts are produced by, erm, HM Treasury (last one released here in February), and on page 23 we find the following:
So where on earth does the Treasury get its claim of a sustained three-year 3.5% recovery from? The public finances are based on a projection of 3.25% over three years which is just as ludicrous. This forecast is the basis of Darling's deception - that the UK economy will rebound so we don't need to cut state spending. The Treasury has a depressing habit of concocting forecasts that get them through the next six months, only to be torn up at great expense. So it will be with this.
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Aless Bieri
April 22nd, 2009 4:41pm Report this commentI'd say that in that chart inflation will be be least accurate.
The idea of CPI being 1.0 for the year strikes me as a joke
Conand
April 22nd, 2009 5:17pm Report this commentWow, suddenly 2.2 changes to 3.5 where the hell did that come from??
As Paul Daniels would say, 'That's magic!'
The Claimant unemployment figure seems to be completely wrong. If this is really what the Treasury thought then the funding for Automatic Stabilizers must be completely out of whack.
I imagine this is one of the reasons borrowing has gone through the roof, through the atmosphere and into outer space.
hadrian
April 22nd, 2009 9:55pm Report this commentWith these spaceheads in control, little wonder borrowing is in the stratospheric regions. In a nutshell, to put in indelicately- we're screwed!
Broon and Co have tried to deceive yet again rather than face reality. The quicker they're slung out, the better..it cannot be a moment too soon.
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