What Specter's defection means
James Forsyth 7:24pm
The defection of Arlen Specter is a nice momentum booster for Obama on the eve of his 100th day in office. To be sure, by switching parties Specter has saved himself a debilitating primary fight and pretty much guaranteed himself re-election in a state that is becoming increasingly Democratic. But even if the move is hardly a profile in courage, it should still worry the Republican Party. It means that once Al Franken is seated the Democrats will have 60 votes in the Senate; if the Democrats are united they will be able to vote down a filibuster.
Specter’s departure also acts as an illustration of how the Republican Party is shrinking. That Specter thinks that he has to be a Democrat to be elected in Pennsylvania shows how far out of reach the state that, other than Texas, President Bush visited the most in his first term—he even imposed steel tariffs against his own principles to protect the Pennsylvania steel industry in a bid to curry favour there—now is for the Republican Party.
If the Republicans are not going to have to rely on taking every swing state to win the White House, they desperately need to put states like Pennsylvania back in play. They need a Republicanism that appeals far beyond just the South and the Plains States.
Previous
Short the UK
April 28th, 2009 8:01pm Report this commentAs Obama wrecks the economy it should be possible for the GOP to win again.
I think there are three stages of Obama:
1. Obamarama- campaign and election.
2. Obamanomics - summers, geithner, stimulus and budget. A blend of Statism and Socialism.
3. Obamageddon - 2011?
If you dig deep and read the views of Anna Schwartz, Jim Puplava, Felix Zuluaf, Karl Denninger. You'll find why 2011 could be Obamageddon.
America is on The Path to Insolvency.
Michael Panzner's new book When Giants Fall should be high on the reading list.
Michael B
April 28th, 2009 9:42pm Report this commentNot sure how you think Specter is a showin for reelection next year now that he has switched as his approval ratings were in the low 40s in some recent polls.
Any US incumbent politician polling below 50% is considered in difficulty when running for reelection and next year will be Obama's midterm elections which historically aren't kind to the incumbent party in the White House.
Although its a smart move (assuming he has no serious competition in the PA Dem primary next year) as he would have almost certainly lost the PA GOP primary.
Rmh
April 29th, 2009 8:18am Report this commentHow has he wrecked the economy? Genius thought processes.
The mess was 8 years of bush's making.
marbury
April 29th, 2009 8:33am Report this commentShort the UK: what a brilliant analysis. I would encourage you to put a large bet on it coming true. I mean, a really large bet. Good luck!
Dendrocopos major
April 29th, 2009 9:01am Report this commentI think you may be exaggerating the importance of Mr Specter's defection.
We have self-interested politicians in this country who defect to the winning side in the hope of extending their shelf lives. Their motives for changing allegiance when the bad times come is never seen as a noble principled stand but rather as a cynical move to cling on to power and influence.
Short the UK
April 29th, 2009 10:23am Report this commentRmh,
I said wrecks. I am looking forward. The economy is wrecked now but can be wrecked even more. I believe Obamanomics is a disaster for America. Obama is just continuing Bushnomics: big governement, mega deficits and a Path to Insolvency.
Russ
April 29th, 2009 11:12am Report this commentPerhaps Frank Field and the very few remaining honest Labour MP's might defect and really show what people think of Brown & Co.
rmh
April 29th, 2009 12:08pm Report this commentShort the UK - noted.
I think The Dems are budget balancers, but this is hard to do when the overdraft you inherit is the biggest ever and the bills are even more still.
Ian C
April 29th, 2009 3:53pm Report this commentUS politics is played out over time in the centreground - right of the Dems and the left of the GOP. At present they are under the control of the left of the Dems and there is no centre ground as the GOP is way off to the ridiculous right.
"Obamageddon" (great summary Short)is inevitable if this remains the same. The costs he is now able to impose on the American economy through his Eco-terrorist bill, the so-called stimulus and other policies lined up will ensure that the 2008-10 Depression becomes a re-run of the 1930's - with bells on it. That's without the de-leveraging that is and will go on for years.
RMH, the right of the Dems are budget balancers, but not the ones making the running at presen. They should have just another year then their reign will be curtailed by the need for re-election in Nov 2010. And the GOP are just finding out that they need to be balancers also. When they do, the left will get angry as the centre ground will eventually re-assert itself. It could be very late in the day by then.
callingallcomets
May 2nd, 2009 1:56am Report this commentHere you go again, James, advocating Democrat lite. All your stuff about demographics etc still cannot explain 2004 when the GOP did well in Congress as well as the White House - that was only five years ago so you cant use the "another generation" Reagan argument. People were talking about South Park Conservatives, remember? And I seem to recall that a few months ago you were pushing Jindal- pro life, with religious views as quaint as Palin's, so how on earth would he appeal to your so called swing constituency....
Back to top