The most likely date for the next election is May 6th, 2010

James Burdett

May 10th next year is a Monday!

Dominic Allkins

Oh God - do we really have to wait that long? I don't know if I can take any more.

Vulture

There is only one way that the Govt can win the election : through massive electoral fraud, mainly by manipulation of the postal votes. Be assured that they will try this. Are the Tories setting up a Postal Vote unit both to monitor such rigging, and to mobilise their own postal votes. There's only a year left.

David Ossitt

James Burdett

"May 10th next year is a Monday"

Yes it is; but the 6th the date mentioned is a Thursday.

Why do you write about the 10th?

James Forsyth

David, It is my bad--I made a typo in the body of the text which I've now corrected. Best, James

Curly

Suppose Labour MPs have a "Valkyrie" moment and depose Brown after the EU elections, would a new leader not prefer to seek a quick mandate?

It might limit the damage for the party.

Forlornehope

I wonder, if faced with a serious challenge to his leadership, would Brown prefer to go to the country rather than to stand down. To be in the ignominious position to have never faced the electors while in office would leave him as no more than a pathetic footnote to the Blair years. He might prefer to go down in a fight with "the real enemy".

Is this just a forlorn hope that we could get rid of him sooner than next year?

David Ossitt

Curly

A new leader would have to seek a new mandate; the country would not put up with yet another Prime Minister chosen only by the labour membership.

seb

Vulture:
Many will, like you, be expectig Labour to 'Go Postal' in 2010. We could conceivably have a nation where both the economy and the political system are modelled on North Korea. Brown Jong-Il? Hmm. It has a certain panache.

John Moss

The last date for the prorogation of Parliament is May 10, therefore the last legal date for the General election is June 10, 2010.

I suspect Brown will have to be dragged from 10 Downing Street scraping what is left of his fingernails along the paintwork on the morning of June 11.

haggis

this isn't the most likely date, its the most likely "last" date. we could go to elections many times before this but its unlikely that we will after the 6th may next year.

I don't think it will be that long. me and 37000 other signatories to the no 10 petition - have YOU signed yet??

drakes drum

There is no chance on earth that this discredited, tired, incompetent government can go much longer than June.

Following the EU elections, when the Labour vote will almost vanish and the BNP gain!the pressure from the Country - not just the westminster bubble- will be so great that they will be forced to call an election.

Brown has never had a mandate. He broke the party's pact with the people when he raised income tax and did not give us the promised referendum.

We have never witnessed a goverment being chased out of Parliament- I would not bet against such actions.

There is nothing nice about him. Everything he does has an edge to it. Spiteful and nasty. Goodness me someone must have taken his sweets in the playground when he was a kid!

I have never known an individual hated as much as Brown. Hate is a word I detest but it is the only word to describe what I am hearing from young and old alike!

That is why I believe it could turn quite nasty!

Manfredo Felice

If Brown really wished to save his political reputation here's what he'd do:

1) Wait for the next uptick in Labour popularity, no matter how small--could be anything, a tiny slip by Cameron, a well-received Brown speech, an encouraging economic statistic, just something Labour can hang its hat on;
2) Call a snap election;
3) Run as strong a campaign as possible;
4) Lose anyway, but
5) Deny Cameron a 1997-in-reverse.

If John Major had gone to the country earlier (remember, there were some shaky moments for Blair which temporarily narrowed Labour's lead in the polls) and left New Labour with a 30-50 seat majority history might be very different and Major might be viewed more favourably.

But, of course, Brown like Major will hang on to the very last moment hoping for a miraculous recovery. It is the nature of the beast.

Bluebottle

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Brown is terrified of elections, particularly one he thinks he may lose. He will do whatever it takes to avoid one. He failed to stand against Blair in 1994; he bullied the Labour party into an acclamation rather than a leadership election in 2007; he bottled an election in the autumn of 2007 when he would have won and he's not really elected in his own constituency since it's a Labour pocket borough.

My prediction is that he will stand down due to "health" reasons before next May, thus avoiding an election and giving him the grounds to convince himself that in his political career, he was undefeated in an election.

michael m

Has it occurred to anyone yet that the 6 May 2010 will be the 70th anniversary of Churchill becoming PM? It will take Conservative leadership once again to get us out of the current mess

mac

Brown must be turning every which way to fix a post No 10 job which will permit him to continue to inhabit his own fantasy world, the one he saved and in which he is a political and economic giant surrounded by pygmies.

Only Obama has the clout to deliver the IMF for Brown, but why would he? And why would Berlin and Paris acquiesce? And how Warsaw, Brasilia and Santiago, to name but 3 of Brown's recent stellar receptions, would express surprise were any significant international post be offered.

Far more fitting for Brown is head off to Cape Cod - forever - and scribble books of manic self-justification. David Icke's portfolio could be readily plagiarised; with just a little tweaking they are highly suited to Brown's purpose. For example:

"Truth Vibrations: From TV Celebrity to World Visionary" . . .
Gordon's version could be: "Son of the Manse to
World Saviour."

"The Robots' Rebellion: The Story of the Spiritual Renaissance" . . .
Gordon's version: "The Robots' Rebellion: The Story of how the ungrateful nation rejected me".

"I am Me, I am Free: The Robots Guide to Freedom" . . .
Just needs shortening to "Me, Me, Me."

"It's a Tough Game, Son: Real World of Professional Football"
Gordon's version subtitled: "Floreat Raith Rovers, not forgetting Gazza's goal"

David Ossitt

John Moss

John he has till the 3rd June 2010 not the 10th.

MartSharm

And this is news?

Every local candidate I know is planning their campaigning around a May 2010 election date.

Denis Cooper

John Moss

The Electoral Commission says:

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/elections/what-is-the-last-possible-date-for-a-general-election

"A general election to elect the new Parliament must be held by no later than Thursday 3 June 2010."

Actually it's only a convention that the general election is always held on a Thursday, pdf page 29 here:

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0016/16054/Timetables_10051-7977__E__N__S__W__.pdf

As I've been arguing since last autumn, and repeated ad nauseam, Merkel and Sarkozy will not allow the Labour government to risk a general election here before the Irish have had the opportunity to reverse their "no" to the Lisbon Treaty.

In the meantime, even in the unlikely event of a massive rebellion by Labour MPs on a vote of confidence, Brown could still rely on the euromaniac Clegg to make sure that enough of the Liberal Democrats MPs abstained, or even voted with the government, to ensure that the motion was defeated.

As the second Irish referendum is provisionally scheduled for October, that almost certainly means that with or without Brown as Prime Minister we're stuck with a Labour government until next spring.

We have had general elections in November (1868, 1885, 1922 and 1935), and even in December (1832, 1910, 1918 and 1923), but the chances are that it would be put off to the spring - maybe by then we would have seen the worst of the economic news, and (at least traditionally) Labour supporters are more likely to turn out when the weather's better.

Max Kaye

A beautiful spring day and the garden beckons.

Also:

The anti-Brown petition at Number 10 has reached 43,000.