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Monday, 4th May 2009

CoffeeHousers' Wall, 4 May - 10 May

4:16pm

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers' Wall. For those who haven't come across the Wall before, it's a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section.

There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local paper, to chat about the latest football results.

But, more than anything, we want this Wall to become a means of better communication between the Coffee House team and you, the readers. If you want us to write on anything in particular – add a comment to the Wall. If you want to ask us any questions – add a comment to the Wall. If you have any thoughts about this feature – add a comment to the Wall. The Coffee House team will do its best to get involved in the conversations that you start.

To give the Wall a splash of colour, you can even send your photos and videos in to phoskin @ spectator.co.uk and we’ll select the best to put at the top of the post. Any pictures of polticians doing the constituency rounds? Any videos of interesting debates? Do send them in.

You can access this Wall throughout the week by clicking on the Wall button on the righthand side of any Coffee House page.

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A CLASSIC VIEW

The classic view of The Hope Valley from the top of Stanage Edge, above
Hathersage in The Peak District National Park. Taken by THX1138 this Bank
Holiday Weekend.

Blogs: Martin Bright | Susan Hill | Alex Massie | Melanie Phillips | Faith Based | Cappuccino Culture

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Comments Post comment

TomE

May 4th, 2009 5:10pm Report this comment

Two things:

1) Is it possible for more than just the latest 5 stories to appear on the first page of coffee house? I think that around 10 would be a better number as it would be easier to browse the latest blogposts.

2) The link to Benedict Brogan on the "Coffee House Blog Roll" needs to be updated as it links to his old Daily Mail blog.

Pete Hoskin

May 4th, 2009 5:41pm Report this comment

TomE: Thanks for pointing out the B. Brogan link - I'll fix it now.

And your other suggestion has been noted.

Jock

May 4th, 2009 5:50pm Report this comment

MPs’ second jobs

The new arrangement is for MPs to provide details of jobs they hold over and above that of MP, including hours worked, duties performed and amount paid.

Reasons given to justify this include:
o Constituents, many of whom see the job of MP as being full time and handsomely rewarded on that basis, should be able to see how much time their MP devotes to outside employment.
o In the interest of the need to guard against MPs bring improperly influenced, it is sensible to require details to be provided of outside employment including duties performed, time involved and payment received.

Fair enough – BUT:

On the first point. Knowing how much time, if any, an MP spends on outside employment does not tell us how much time he or she spends on his or her duties as an MP. It is entirely possible that one MP with an outside job could be much more diligent and spend much more time on his or her duties than another who has no outside employment.

So, in addition to publishing information regarding outside employment, why not issue in parallel full details of individual MPs House of Commons attendance record and proportion of division votes recorded, the hours spent working in their constituency and how they spend their time during the 23 weeks of the year when Parliament is in recess. Incidentally, that last point might be food for thought for Frank Skinner when is his wondering how MPs can find time to do two jobs.

On the second point. Doubtless this provides information on potential influence from current outside employment. But what about the potential risk of outside employment resulting and/or benefitting from past influence as an MP or Minister?

So, in addition to requiring and publishing details of outside employment for serving MPs, why not require MPs, and in particular ex Ministers to provide equally full details of employment taken up in the, say, eighteen month period after leaving office.

Michael Booth

May 4th, 2009 6:46pm Report this comment

How about reducing the number of months Parliament sits (and so cut down opportunities for the legislation factory to keep churching out ill-conceived statutes), make it mandatory for MPs to have a second job out in the real world and cut their Parliamentary salaries by 50 per cent to recognise the fact?

David Ossitt

May 4th, 2009 6:51pm Report this comment

Thank god that the position of Poet Laureate is not now given for life but is held for a term of ten years only; now that it has been awarded to an incompetent.

English language poetry; is possibly unique, the beauty of the language, when written by someone of great talent is pure joy.

If Carol Ann Duffy were to hold the post for life it would be a disgrace.

New Labour is guilty of trying to dumb-down and spoil most of our traditions at every opportunity.

Who was responsible for this dreadful choice?

Who decided to award the honour to Carol Ann Duffy; a woman of little if any talent, and even less charm and charisma?

By choosing her they have simply gone down a prescribed list ticking off all of the political and politically correct boxes.

John Betchamen and all of his illustrious colleagues must be spinning in their graves.

David Ossitt

May 4th, 2009 7:06pm Report this comment

Michael Booth

What a very sensible suggestion.

Jock

May 4th, 2009 7:15pm Report this comment

Michael Good idea. Here's another couple to consider - in addition, not instead:

Further cut the cost of Westminster MPs, as halved by your proposal, by cutting their number in half in recognition of the volume of work delegated to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and abrogated to the EU.

Pay all MPs the same salary as they achieved in their last job in the real world, to prevent third raters improving their income/lifestyles by becoming MPs - but subject to a ceiling equal to the current MP's salary.

Derek Wicks

May 4th, 2009 7:29pm Report this comment

As part of its election platform, I would like to see the Opposition adopt a list of legislation to be repealed or,at least, a commitment to repeal a substantial amount of unspecified legislation. Can this still be done without getting the EU's permission?

Michael Booth

May 4th, 2009 7:31pm Report this comment

Thanks David - Jock, great idea! Seems to cover all bases. (Just noticed I put 'churching' instead of 'churning' - blame the vino...

Verity

May 4th, 2009 8:22pm Report this comment

Derek Wicks - I would go further and hope that the Tory Leader would give a blanket promise to remove every last grim, dingy, posturing, destructive piece of legislation they have enacted be wiped off the books in one swipe. As in, starting from the day Blair preened into office until the day Labour loses the election. Every last jot rendered null and void at a stroke. No need to waste time debating any of it. It's all Marxist/Gramsci/Stalinesque rubbish. Should take around 15 minutes or less.

Austin Barry

May 4th, 2009 9:22pm Report this comment

David Ossitt

I would've appointed scouser Roger McGough as Poet Laureate. He has the acute sense of ironic detachment necessary to survive the inherent absurdity of the role. He has a few verses all ready to go:

"Out of work, divorced,
Usually pissed,
He aimed low in life,
.....and missed."

words that could be applied to at least two members of the Royal Family.

Susan Hill

May 4th, 2009 9:54pm Report this comment

Is there a sport that shows to better effect on television than snooker ? I have just watched the magnificent final of the World Cup from the Crucible and it was a joy - the brilliant play, the smart appearance of everyone - especially the lady Referee and so many in the audience in dinner jackets. The general all-round politeness and niceness of everyone, the cheerful, well-behaved, enthusiastic audience added hugely to one`s viewing pleasure. But most of all, this is a game which tv really enhances. So many others just don`t work because of the camera angles, large areas to be covered etc. Snooker is perfect for the medium.

Wilhelm

May 4th, 2009 10:54pm Report this comment

It must be very demoralizing living in England, it really must be,

1. When you have illegal immigrants hanging off backs of trucks with legs akimbo, waltzing into the country, the liebour government giving them the red carpet treatment throwing benefits at them, left, right and centre, free housing, free health care, free pensions.

2. Radical muslims slagging off British soldiers at a parade in Luton, Captain, Hook Abu Hamza spewing out hatred at England. Nutty Ken Livingston inviting fruitcake islamic preachers to Londonistan.

This is juxtaposed by Liebours shameful treatment of the Gurkhas, Gordon Broon came up with nasty ugly little law that Joanna Lumley exposed brilliantly, if you are a Gurkha you have to win 500 medals to be considered to live in the UK.

Gordon Broon squeeled '' we dont have any money to help the Gurkhas ''. This clown has given £600 Billion to the banks in a week.

And finally Liebour doesnt let in Geert Wilders into the country, a democratic elected Dutch politician from our closest ally, a most placid man. I suppose if he was wearing a burqua, he would get in.

To repeat that tired old mantra that we all know and love,

'' Its like a nation heaping up its own funeral pyre.''

Wilhelm

May 4th, 2009 11:01pm Report this comment

Michael Booth

Geert Wlders has said that every time the Dutch government makes a law, they should cancel two old laws. This idea would stop them
churning out irrelevant laws like a sausage factory.

Wilhelm

May 5th, 2009 12:31am Report this comment

Its no suprise then that 300.000 English are just bailing out, to Australia and elsewhere around the world, voting with their feet. A damning indictment on the government of the country.

mac

May 5th, 2009 12:45am Report this comment

@ Susan Hill
I remember watching pre-Pot Black snooker on TV in the late fifties/early sixties, and it was perfectly watchable in monochrome; what a revelation colour was when it arrived. Whispering Ted Lowe was the ideal commentator, but it must be said that modern skills, cues and cloths have improved the spectacle greatly - a 100+ break was a rarity 50 years ago. And the admirable skill of the modern young masters is such that out-and-out entertainers like the unpredictable Hurricane Higgins or Big Bill Werbeniuk - downing lagers during his matches -probably wouldn't get a look-in were they competing now. But the deliberate and patient Cliff Thorburn or the great Ray Reardon at their best? Well, they just might have done . . .

JohnAnt

May 5th, 2009 1:32am Report this comment

Can we have an Ombudsman for Exposing Public Lying (OfWhop) who would, for example, be able to order Gordon Brown to apologise for lies told in tv interviews about his conduct over the Second Homes Allowance, and attempts to deny the contents of his public YouTube interviews. Not for the record - we already have that - but to avoid the impression that he takes us all for idiots.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1184614595?bctid=21696905001

Verity

May 5th, 2009 2:41am Report this comment

Jock - "Pay all MPs the same salary as they achieved in their last job in the real world, to prevent third raters improving their income/lifestyles by becoming MPs...".

That is brilliant!

Next, Geert Wilders is clever, articulate, calm and has acuity. Perhaps if "Lord" (oh! stop!!) Ahmad ever got invited to talk to the Dutch Parliament, Mr Wilders could threaten to bring in 10,000 thoughtful Dutch people who felt mildly annoyed? But would obey the Dutch police and all go off for some coffee mitt schlaag afterwards to settle their nerves?

RayD

May 5th, 2009 6:56am Report this comment

Jock,

If I might add a mean little twist, the last salary they received in the private sector.

Derek Wicks

May 5th, 2009 7:04am Report this comment

Why has the Spectator not published anything by Mark Steyn for some considerable time? Has he not submitted anything or has he not been invited to to? Really, I'd like to know.

Pete Hoskin

May 5th, 2009 7:53am Report this comment

Many thanks to THX1138 for the photo and caption above.

Do keep the pictures coming in to phoskin @ spectator.co.uk

Michael Booth

May 5th, 2009 11:02am Report this comment

Hey THX1138, thanks for the pic of Stanage Edge - used to go hiking around there every weekend when I was a teenager living in Sheffield.
Wilhelm - thanks too for the Gert Wilders proposal on getting rid of two old laws everytime a new one is passed. Would be totally in favour of an Act of Oblivion (sorry, it's my love of seventeenth century history coming out again) which would wipe off all legislation passed by New Labour since 1997 - could be a single liner and done within fifteen minutes as someone said. Time for Team Cameron to show some radicalism here.

Michael Booth

May 5th, 2009 3:00pm Report this comment

'In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king'

Thoughts, anyone?

Helen J

May 5th, 2009 3:04pm Report this comment

Just for THX and his appalling record collection, here's Peter Hitchens on Bob Dyaln:

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2009/05/subterranean-homesick-whinge-the-king-of-selfpity-is-back.html

Verity

May 5th, 2009 3:15pm Report this comment

Derek Wicks - You must be new around here. When the Barclay brothers bought The Telegraph and The Speccie, they decided two things: One: Mark Steyn is too clever by half. Two: Mark Steyn was/is close to previous owner Conrad Black.

You say Steyn hasn't appeared for "some considerable time". No need to be so vague. He hasn't appeared since the Barclays bought the shop.

Forlornehope

May 5th, 2009 3:28pm Report this comment

There is a story in the FT today that was just written for Verity. Anti-Mafia magistrates in Sicily have opened a sweeping investigation into the wind power sector where local officials, entrepreneurs and crime gangs are suspected of collusion in the construction of lucrative wind farms before their eventual sale to multinational companies. All this done with massive EU subsidies. So we get global warming and the EU tied up with the mafia in a blatant bit of corruption. It can't get any better can it?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b69fdf3a-38d1-11de-8cfe-00144feabdc0.html

Enjoy!

THX1138

May 5th, 2009 3:52pm Report this comment

Helen J- Do you know what I don't actually give a flying fig what Peter Hitchens thinks about Bob Dylan or anything else for that matter. His brother now that's another matter!

Why don't we follow the great Bobby Dylan's advice.

http://tinyurl.com/d7uo4y

Most Likely You Go Your Way (And I`ll Go Mine)

PS What music do you like?

Maximilian

May 5th, 2009 4:16pm Report this comment

Has Harry's Place been sabotaged? Is it the online equivalent of somebody smashing up their local Starbucks? I've tried to get in four or five times today, and all I get is this:

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access / on this server.

Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

Apache/2.0.54 Server at www.hurryupharry.org Port 80

Helen J

May 5th, 2009 4:42pm Report this comment

I know you don't care what Peter Hitchens thinks, THX, but you enjoy ramming this board with all sorts of po-faced musical references, so you're in the Dylan 'zone'.

What do I like? I like a man who can sing as if actually owns a pair between his legs, not like that neutered Radiohead man.

Bon Scott and Brian Johnson are usually a good place to start.

THX1138

May 5th, 2009 4:57pm Report this comment

Michael Booth. You're welcome, do remember that it took the post war Labour Gov to bring on the The National Parks and Access to Countryside Act without the Act you wouldn't have been hiking around Stanage Edge you would've been chased off by a gamekeeper shouting "git orfff moi masters laaand" and no doubt peppering you with shot for good measure.

This Gov also brought in the recent right to roam legislation,
without these Labour Gov laws vet few of us would be able to visit these beautiful places in our own country.

Can I assume that you would want the right to roam legislation missed out when you wipe the slate clean of all New Labour Legislation?

I feel a "what have the Romans ever done for us" list coming on!

THX1138

May 5th, 2009 6:20pm Report this comment

Helen J- Post your music I'm always up for listening to a good tune. I'm not huge rock fan but I'm not going to slag of your musical tastes so why have a go at mine?

Yes you're right just like our future PM I love Radiohead, The Smiths & Bob Dylan

Dave's Desert Island Discs Selection

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/factual/desertislanddiscs_20060528.shtml

Bob Dylan's Tangled up in Blue was Dave's if I could only take one record selection.

Even more reasons to vote for him, he's one of us!

Michael Booth

May 5th, 2009 7:08pm Report this comment

THX1138, yep, you got it - the whole lot. Let's start again...

Tiberius

May 5th, 2009 8:22pm Report this comment

Agree with you, Susan, over the snooker, but it is much more exciting when the final is closely fought. Nerves have such an huge effect in a game where exposure is allied with delicate touch and concentration.

Oh, and Arsenal have blown the Champions League again.

THX1138

May 5th, 2009 8:25pm Report this comment

The First swallow arrived in North LDN this evening.

Derek Wicks

May 5th, 2009 11:23pm Report this comment

Verity. Many thanks for the explanation of the disappearance of Mark Steyn from the pages of the magazine. Oh dear,I am new only in terms of naivety I am afraid, as I had retained a foolish idea that in England editors remained "fiercely" independent of their publishers in the selection of contributors...

Jenny

May 5th, 2009 11:56pm Report this comment

I am so glad 'Lady' Uddin has been exposed. Today we find out she lives in a council house:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1177542/Lords-probe-Labour-peer-claimed-100-000-flat-social-housing-tenant.html

The mammoth expansion of council housing is one of the great scandals of this government and shows just how radical they have been. As well as the workshy and the layabouts there are heaps of professional people who have no business living in state-subsised accomodation. There are barristers and all sorts living in council houses and housing association properties too - and no wonder, look how swanky they are.

This is all to do with extending state control over the way the state creates 'communities'. That and section 106 agreements.

Once upon a time council housing was for those who had fallen on hard times - not in the last 10 years.

Oh no, it's been one of the many radical limbs of social engineering people are just waking up to.

Why the hell are we subsidising this woman for anything?

Derek Wicks

May 6th, 2009 12:17am Report this comment

Helen J. I think you must be referring to Janis Joplin.

THX1138. Smashing photo of Stanage Edge, a site I'm unfamiliar with. A long time ago, I had a very happy holiday walking to various peaks and then sliding down via the screes. I assume the latter practice has now been banned by our nannies, possibly on the grounds of endangering the lizard?

Paul B

May 6th, 2009 7:31am Report this comment

THX, good to hear about the swallow. Saw my first of the year in North Oxfordshire/South Warwickshire approx 10 days ago now. Saw a cuckoo a couple of days ago and last week narrowly avoided running three tiny fox cub sitting in the middle of the road at dusk. There are Buzzards everywhere nowadays,which demonstrates a healthy population. Owls can be commonly seen and heard at the right time day & night. Red Kites have emigrated from the M40 and are now a common sight here. Reports of Swifts being seen, but I cannot confirm that, they are noisy and you usually hear them. Contray to EGH, I think the countryside is looking exceptionally beautiful this spring, may have something to do with the heavy snows we had in Feb`. Must remember to put a camera in my car and snap thes e things when I caome across them.

May I ask THX and other city dweller on here, we have had several fine pictures of the English countryside, may we have some of London and other cities, how about up on the Heath THX ?

Pity the Arse` THX :-) watch the Chels go tonight. Super Frank.

epidermoid

May 6th, 2009 8:58am Report this comment

@Maximilian

"Has Harry's Place been sabotaged?"
Me too, I get the same message. Anyone understand what this means?

Brett

May 6th, 2009 9:17am Report this comment

"Has Harry's Place been sabotaged?"

No, alas, our hosting company has had some sort of system crash. Efforts to restore services are ongoing and ought to be completed later today... so they say.

Sarah

May 6th, 2009 9:50am Report this comment

@Maximilian - I'm having the same problem re Harry's Place - it's odd there's nothing more about this on the blogosphere.

Kevyn Bodman

May 6th, 2009 12:13pm Report this comment

A Test Match starting on a Wednesday,that's not right ,is it?Thank heavens they are still wearing whites,at least.
I'd only just got used to not having a rest day on the Sunday.
Then we had Friday starts.
That threw me too.
Now Wednesday.What's all that about? Hardly an improvement.

And at the weekend a rugby match was decided on a penalty shoot-out.

Change is not always improvement.

Paul B

May 6th, 2009 12:41pm Report this comment

Update re Swifts, heard and then saw my first small flock of them this year, whilst in the garden this mornin, building a runner bean frame.

Verity

May 6th, 2009 12:56pm Report this comment

Well said, Jenny!

This Uddin individual has no call on social housing. We know this because her family, a couple of days ago ran and put a mat on the doorstep and a couple of pieces of furniture inside her real home - which had been left unfurnished for some years! So she doesn't need a charity home after all!

Why are the British taxpayers paying for this pretend "peer" (we will have to sweep them all out and take away their pretend honorifics when we get in) to live the life of her dreams as an immigrant who has contributed nothing to our country? Perhaps she could be a reverse immigrant to Bangladesh and contribute some of her talents to her own country? Perhaps they could give her a pretend title?

Anyway, everything the socialists have created as a "peer" has to be sluiced down the public drains of London. BTW, that colour of hijab thingy doesn't work. It's too harsh for her age emphasises the lines in her hard face.

THX1138

May 6th, 2009 1:25pm Report this comment

Paul B good luck tonight. I'm still smarting although our dear moderator is a very happy bunny today I'm sure. Congrats Pete!

I have seen those red kites on the M40 and they are a magnificent site. We always look out for the first swallow of the summer bit of a THX family tradition they were two days earlier this year. Summer is coming.

Will take some pics from the top of Kite Hill on the Heath over the weekend to remind you what your missing now your a country bumpkin -:)

Paul B

May 6th, 2009 2:29pm Report this comment

Agree with Kevyn on Wednesday starts for test matches.Also far to early in the season for test matches. Why are hosting the West Indies anyway, nothing against them, but we have only just return from the Caribbean, and this years is an Ashes year. The Aussies should be here, warming up against the counties and the then have the first Test beginning of June, with the lat at Oval sometime in August. ECB have sold their soul and flushed it down the sewer when they signed with Stanford.

RE the Rugby, the penalty kick off was a farce, although I was pleased The Tigers beat Cardiff. Always nice to see the English putting one over the Taffs. :-) Having said that ,it was watching Gareth Edwards and Barry John and having a Welsh PE teacher the first inspired me to play Rugby. For that I am forever in their debt, as Rugby has given me a life time of pleasure. Edwards is still my favourite all time player. Geek made a big mistake not selecting Croft imo- immense player.

Rhoda Klapp

May 6th, 2009 2:50pm Report this comment

My first swallow was on 1st April. He/She was alone for about two weeks. Living as I do near the red kite release point, I see lots of them. They are quite gregarious and will gather into groups of 20+ just wheeling and swooping, seemingly for fun. We get a few Buzzards too, but they are not such beautiful flyers. Kites have a higher aspect ratio and eschew dihedral for stability, like a buzzard, relying on active rudder control from their tail, often used sideways. There is no shortag of larks here, never has been, they aren't worried by modern crop practices or the M40.

Verity

May 6th, 2009 3:53pm Report this comment

I have several kite-like birds who fly over my house - and indeed, the whole neighbourhood, way, way up high. They seem to fly in couples, and swoop around each other. They are beautiful.

We also get parrots in our trees. Yackety yackety yack.

Paul B

May 6th, 2009 6:56pm Report this comment

Do you know what the birds are that are way up Verity? They are obviously birds of prey of some type, using the thermals to gain height. Not knowing where you live, I would hazard a guess they are Eagles or a Vultures.

You may not believe me, but I kid you not, Green Parrots are to be found all over London, especially South West London,where they are becoming something of a nuisance, and a cull is being talked of. They established after an escape, and with micro climate and plenty of food and no predator to speak of,soon took hold.

Lots of wildlife in London now, I especially wanted to see a Peregrine Falcon, the quickestd animal there is, achieving speeds upwards of 150mph in a dive. I know for a fact there was a pair nesting on a ledge on Marylebone Police station, which is (or was) Seymour Street,W1, just behind Marble Arch.They were interfering with Police comms, and the Met had to find an alternative method to broadcast radio signal as they were not allowed to touch the nest-quite right to. I also believe the Falcons were using the huge canes at the shopping centre development at Shepherds Bush to perch and spot their prey-pigeons. Sadly, I have never spotted one.

Jenny

May 6th, 2009 10:24pm Report this comment

Give us a guest article by Michael Savage.

I hope he tears Jacqui Smith to pieces in the courts.

Verity

May 6th, 2009 11:52pm Report this comment

Jenny - ZOWIE!!!!!! Wheeee! Give us a guest article by Michael Savage! I too hope he rips her guts out in court. Thought Fascist, SS, Jackboot Jacqui. Banned Geert Wilders, an ELECTED MP of a democratic country of excellent standing in the EU and the world because "Lord" Ahmad threatened to come by the HoL wif 10,000 Muslim bovver boys.

Paul B - Thank you! They fly up very high, usually in pairs - most certainly coasting on thermals - very elegant; very beautiful. They are much smaller than eagles ... perhaps the size of a raven ... cannot judge. Of course, I don't know, because they don't wear name badges, but I think they pretty much stick to one (large) patch of territory, and I think they mate for life. They are black. And have very large, beautiful wings.

Shock Jock

May 7th, 2009 12:06am Report this comment

Oi! Jackboots Jacqui! How did your sister feel about the neighbours shopping you to the police for sleeping in the spare room? Looks like they don't like you! Could you give us your qualifications for holding high office, please? - given that these are not apparent to the naked eye. Could you tell us why you have your hair in stripes? Is this some thought-Nazi cult thing?

Verity

May 7th, 2009 2:31am Report this comment

Just listened to Savage on talk radio in the US (Google it), and he is articulate, intelligent, quick-witted and an apostle of free speech. Meaning: Free. Speech.

Jacqui, if you have a computer in your sister's spare room, take note, dear.

I listened to a call-in show and Jackboots Jacqui is an absolute joke. They'd never heard of her over there, but they have now. Look for her to be a joke feature on weekend TV in the US.

Banning a US citizen who hadn't even thought about visiting the Citizens' Republic of the EUSSR Federal Area of Britain?

donald fraser

May 7th, 2009 4:32am Report this comment

A political commitment to permit currency exchange rates to float freely is a vital part of the Neo-Classical (Monetarist) model. The argument is that as a country falls into recession its currency is naturally worth less (devalues). Recovery will then naturally begin because exports become cheaper (more price competitive) to prosperous countries with stronger currencies.

Scientific models will always have flaws in them. Sometimes flaws just mean that further theoretical work on the model is required. Occasionally the flaws are so great that the old model is thrown out and one replaces it. The scale of the current global economic crisis, coupled with concerns about climate change and a resurgent Islamic theology mean the current Neo-Classical model is under extreme duress.

Before Monetarism won acceptance at the end of the 1970s it had to answer the main case against the “free-market” classical model. Namely after the destruction wrought by two world wars an argument was won (by Maynard Keynes and others) that free-markets were not self-regulating and were prone to catastrophic collapse.

The UK is now in a unique position to be the barometer for the survival or throwing out of the current model. That is because it retained an independent currency when most of the European neighbours did not. The UK’s joining of the Euro is unlikely to now be determined by devaluation pressures. Devaluation of the pound is the mechanism by which recovery will be led. How successful will depend on how well government can manage social policy (assuage the anger as imported goods rise in price) and harness domestic production (investing in capacity as exported goods valued in foreign currencies increase).

There are however two caveats to this. Firstly the assumption that the Neo-Classical model is itself not so badly flawed that it is going to be thrown-out completely and replaced by something else. This does not involve the UK directly but is something that will be determined by Sino-American relations, both economic and military. Secondly the assumption that no extraneous factor in the economic outlook of the UK that will prevent the pound’s devaluation leading to recovery. The UK’s extraneous factor is the need to make a budgetary commitment for the upgrade of the Trident submarine defence system.

Quantitative easing and devaluation of the pound secures the immediate economic benefits of a rise in tourism (a form of export) already evident. The danger is that there is a greater potential for poor management of the UK economy. Anything that exacerbates the existing poor economies of scale to be found in UK manufacturing and the lower added value in the financial sector supply chain because of new mistrust or quality concerns. Without policy corrections, such conditions might provoke a sustained period of a low price elasticity of supply (in exports) and therefore create a “run on the pound” associated with a balance of payments crisis.

However a “run on the pound” is very unlikely to lead to Britain’s membership of the Euro. That is because the existing members of the Euro currency are not likely to be in a position of sufficient economic strength themselves to consider taking significant political risks. Also once the immediate crisis a “run on the pound” will create is over, the devaluation of the pound will start to work in the UK’s favour. A sustained low exchange rate will become the mechanism by which the recovery will be led in the UK just as the self-regulating markets theory of the Neo-classical model predicts.

However in the long term an advantageous low exchange rate (in terms of recovery) cannot be maintained without America challenging Britain’s future outside of the Euro. As it is unlikely Anglo-American military defence policy will be change significantly at the strategic level, Britain must eventually accommodate a forward budgetary plan to pay for its required Trident upgrade. It is this extraneous factor which will force Britain to join the Euro because America is not going to want a budget drawn up in pounds for reasons superfluous to the argument about currency devaluation. The reasons are everything to do with the size of the debt obligations (national debt) the UK government now underwrites as a consequence of rescuing the banks during the 2008 crisis.

In conclusion, Britain’s immediate economic recovery will depend on a sustained devaluation of the pound and the government’s ability to increase the price elasticity of supply to export pressures. Subsequently the recovery is likely to stall as the UK is forced to join the Euro as a condition of the budgetary deal with America to upgrade its nuclear defence capability. Under such a scenario the terms of membership of the Euro will be favourable to the UK. However the entry deal struck will require sharing some financial burden for a type of “Marshall Plan for Eastern Europe”. So the economic recovery of the UK will probably stall in the aftermath of joining the Euro. However the upgrade of our Trident defence will have been successfully secured for future generations.

Raffles

May 7th, 2009 10:23am Report this comment

Reading around - Ladies and Gentlemen, despite being ideologically at home reading the likes of the Spectator i do like to see a breadth of comment on the issues of the day and am occasionally pleasantly surprised by what can be found. Today however, i found myself reading Seamus Milne in the Guardian. I feel a bit dirty now. If you have the stomach i urge you to read his extraordinary pice on Lady T's legacy. My immediate anger has now been replaced by a sadness that a presumably educated individual could come up with such nonsense. Apparently the 1970's were in fact nowhere near as bad as portrayed by Thatcher supporters and she then ripped the country apart blah blah Billy Elliot blah.

Forlornehope

May 7th, 2009 10:36am Report this comment

Donald Fraser, wow! A most impressive analysis. The only problem is that the cost of the Trident missiles, is a relatively small component of the whole systems cost. The submarines themselves are far and away the dominant component of the project. Taken as part of the total transatlantic arms trade the missiles are almost insignificant. The F35 is a much bigger project with a significant UK share, that will probably more than balance the UK purchases. This is particulary true if you consider repatriation of profits by UK suppliers operating in the US.

THX1138

May 7th, 2009 10:53am Report this comment

Raffles C'mon it wasn't that bad & I'm sure some of his stats were right - Oh and Mrs T should be proud of Billy Elliot it's a great British success story picking up a record 15 Tony award nominations in NY this week.

THX1138

May 7th, 2009 11:30am Report this comment

donald fraser yep great analysis except for the annoying fact that in the real world the GBP keeps rising against the USD now at a 1.50 up from a low of 1.37. I'm long of the USD against the GBP and the trade is killing me. Rumors abound that Soros has shorted the £ so maybe the GBP will fall.

Maximilian

May 7th, 2009 3:04pm Report this comment

@donald fraser

Let us assume that devaluation of the £ proceeds as you expect until one day it falls to parity with the euro. That, it seems to be, would be an irresistible temptation for the government of the day, whether Labour or Tory, to step across the gap without even getting its feet wet. It would be an almost effortless way to slide into the euro without providing what would otherwise be the most obvious target for the opposition, namely the recalculation of all wages and prices. Just change the pound sign to the euro sign and hey presto! we're in!

Ashoka Sen

May 7th, 2009 3:24pm Report this comment

I didn't understand why Susan Hill failed to see what Eliot meant to say by calling April "the cruellest month". I have written a short story with the title "April is the cruellest month". I was deeply moved when I first read the poem and was inspired to write the story. Eliot has answered it clearly, but not all readers have have the time and patience to get into the deep level of a poem. Most people are just satisfied with the surface meaning, but I expected Susan Hill to have a better level of understanding and the power of getting beyond the surface meaning. Apris is the cruellest month, because it mixes memory with desire. When a dead root of lilac is bursting with desire to come back to life, it is haunted by the memory of the life of the last year. I wish the editor of "Spectator" publishes my story, which deserves to be published and brought out to the notice and appreciation of many intelligent readers.

Verity

May 7th, 2009 6:56pm Report this comment

A Thursday evening nostalgic giggle ...
http://tinyurl.com/cwufkz

donald fraser

May 7th, 2009 10:32pm Report this comment

Gordon Brown’s future depends on some evidence of an economic recovery before calling a General Election. The American economy is predicted to recover before the UK’s and there is reasonable hope America’s recovery will start before the British Elections. So Brown’s best strategy is to position his team to focus on Anglo-American relations in a way that maximises Labour’s re-election chances. It will be enough to ensure any sight of an American economic recovery is seen as presaging a guaranteed British one.

However America’s “start of recovery” is a double-edged sword because a “run on the pound” is likely to immediately follow. That is because the currently unprecedented global co-operation between governmental monetary bodies to intervene in markets will swiftly end. The worst scenario for Gordon Brown would be a prosperous Christmas for America (celebrating the feel-good-factor around a new president) and a dismal one for the UK. In such a situation January 2010 might begin with a “run on the pound”, just ahead of the elections.

In 2007 Tony Blair won a parliamentary vote to upgrade Trident and that is enough to make it current government policy. That is a remarkable turnaround in Labour history, an advantage the military establishment on both sides of the Atlantic will not wish to squander. Britain has re-committed itself to the principle of nuclear defence and has done so under a parliamentary term of the Labour Party.

However the economic crisis after the vote menaces a long-term political victory with a budgetary revolt. Only limited time remains for the Labour government to make a serious financial offer to the USA. So what room, if any, has the Labour government to budget for new nuclear procurement policy and reach an agreement with the USA which will shape the special relationship over the next 30 years?

Above all, it is politically unacceptable for the new American president, Barack Obama, to secure Pound Sterling’s future as part of the deal. Since preliminary top-level discussion on “ballpark figures” for a Trident upgrade will be held in private, beginning negotiations in Euros not Pounds would be a good start and more user-friendly to Americans. This tactic is feasible if European bankers are in talks about the possibility of Britain’s entry into the Euro, however preliminary. Linking the financial agreement to upgrade Trident with Britain’s entry in the Euro would require America to provide financial guarantees to the German banking system and to offer the UK an affordable upgrade path to Trident within current fiscal projections.

The political gamble for the Labour Party would be that a clear statement of intent to join the Euro would then be required in the forthcoming election manifesto. Without it Barack Obama cannot ask Germany to propose favourable membership terms to the British economy. Without a favourable offer on the table the small business community would be less keen to support the Labour party’s re-election. However a favourable offer would ensure the stability of the pound until at least after the elections because of the speculative forces interested in what the actual “favourable conversion terms” might be.

Paul B

May 8th, 2009 9:22am Report this comment

Donald imo the electorate will not accept entry at any price into the Euro, no matter how it is dressed up & sold to us. Some businesses may want exchange stability, but there are plenty of others who do not, who are now starting to enjoy the low pound.

It should also be stated, that it is of no business of Obama or any other US President, about which currency we use in this country as it is of no business to us which currency the US uses. To be frank if we had to merge with foreign currency, I would rather it be the US dollar, than the mish mash political stitch up that is the Euro, which is inevitably heading for crash & burn

I believe we need a nuclear deterrent, can we afford it? Can afford not to have it? When Iran is fast nearing the point it will join the club. When a nuclear armed Taliban and Al Queda is not beyond the realms of imagination. Will having atomic weapons save us from attack from A bombed armed Islamic fanatics, honestly, it may not. It warms my heart though,that we will be able to extract avenge if ever they did try.

Does our deterrent have to be a Trident upgrade? On that, I'm not so sure. Can we not have nuclear armed tomahawks fired from hunter killer subs- or air launched bombs - say from a specially adapted C130 given adequate air defence

Forlornehope

May 8th, 2009 9:28am Report this comment

Donald, it's a fascinating speculation but as the great American physicist Richard Feynman used to say:

"Do the math."

Trident missiles simply don't generate a big enough number to affect the kind of policy decisions you are writing about.

Unless you get to the numbers on a subject, as the great Lord Kelvin wrote:

"when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind"

Paul B

May 8th, 2009 9:34am Report this comment

Verity, thanks for the link. Williams was a great favourite of mine, who never failed to bring a smile to my face. From the Carry On films, to all his various appearances on television. Willo the Wisp, Jackanory, all the talk shows, the man was brilliant.

I do recommend BBC4s (which incidentally is worth every penny of license fee money) Fantabulosa,which is a drama based on Williams diaries, with Michael Sheen playing the lead. If you haven`t seen it and you like Williams, the try and get hold of a DVD.

Paul B

May 8th, 2009 9:45am Report this comment

First Test, probably all over the 3rd session on Friday, at best it will be 20 or 30 runs to knock off by lunch on Saturday. What about all the people who have brought tickets for Saturday, you know, the day when most people don`t work and have time for sporting events?
Starting on Wednesday, yeah, good idea that one.

Mark Rampraskash, first county game of the season, just a mere 133 this time. Forget about the future, this is an Ashes year, surely Ramps must at least be crossing the selectors minds, if Vaughan is,why not Ramps?

Donna

May 8th, 2009 10:27am Report this comment

just been looking for our european manifesto on the conservatives website. If it's on there I can't find it. Do we even have one? The elections are only a month away - but you wouldn't know that by looking at the party's website!

Kevyn Bodman

May 8th, 2009 12:09pm Report this comment

I've just seen Sir Stuart Bell on Sky News.
He says that there was a plan to publish all MPs' expenses in July.
When are the Euro and local elections?
Thank heavens that, as Joey Jones has just said in another report on SkyNews, the damage has already been done.

Kevyn Bodman

May 8th, 2009 12:15pm Report this comment

I never watch football matches, the ball is a funny shape.

But I do see news reports.
What about the behaviour of Michael Ballack and Didier Drogba?
If I was running FIFA,or EUFA ,or the FA they'd be banned for life.
And if I owned Chelsea they'd never play for Chelsea again, even if the football authorities didn't punish them.

Paul B

May 8th, 2009 1:08pm Report this comment

I`m Chelsea supporter, and yes , I profoundly ashamed of Mr Drogbas & Ballacks re-actions. I understand their frustration, but their reactions are completely indefensible. Yes, I wouldn`t let them pull on the blue shirt again.

Wily Trout

May 8th, 2009 1:15pm Report this comment

April was certainly the cruellest month for the wren in my garden. It was eaten by the neighbour's cat.

Verity

May 8th, 2009 1:26pm Report this comment

Paul B - one thing I read, several times, about Williams, was, he refused to let anyone use his loo. If one of his guests wanted to use the loo, he directed them to the tube station across the street.

Kevyn Bodman

May 8th, 2009 3:38pm Report this comment

David Winnick has been on SkyNews complaining about the Telegraph's publication of the MPs' expenses.
Echoing Sir Stuart Bell he said that since the details were going to be published in July anyway they shouldn't have been published now.
Nonsense.
Whose money is it, Mr. Winnick?
It's taxpayers' money.

I despise politicians.

Verity

May 10th, 2009 1:20am Report this comment

Kevyn B - who the hell doesn't?

THX1138

May 10th, 2009 10:33am Report this comment

Me!

Forlornehope

May 10th, 2009 5:37pm Report this comment

I have always been inclined to trust people until they proved me wrong. It seems difficult to maintain this position when looking at our elected representatives.

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