Pakistan: The greatest danger is nuclear insider trading
James Forsyth 6:46pm
The New York Times has an excellent symposium up on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. This point from Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former CIA officer who headed up the office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the Department of Energy under President Bush, is particularly concerning:
The dangers that the nuclear weapons of a supposedly friendly state pose, should remind us all why we should be so keen to prevent nuclear proliferation. If Pakistan's nukes are this concerning, how much more worrying would a nuclear Iran be?“Twice since the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. taken action to break up networks inside Pakistan’s nuclear establishment who were collaborating with outsiders in efforts to help them build bombs. In both cases, rogue senior officials and their cohorts in the nuclear establishment were not caught by Pakistan’s military, security and intelligence establishment.The network run by the father of the Pakistani bomb, Abdul Qadeer Khan, channeled sensitive nuclear technologies to Libya, North Korea and Iran for years under the noses of the Pakistani establishment, before it was taken down in 2003.
The second case involved the Umma-Tameer-E-Nau, which was founded by Pakistani nuclear scientists with close ties to Al Qaeda and the Taliban. It was headed by Bashiruddin Mahmood, a retired senior Pakistan Atomic Energy Agency official who had headed Pakistan’s Khushab Atomic Reactor. He discussed Al Qaeda’s nuclear aspirations with Osama bin Laden.In assuring the security of nuclear weapons in Pakistan, we should remind ourselves that the insider threat is the key wild card. The record is troubling, especially when one considers the probable outcome had the U.S. not intervened as it did to neutralize threats as they became known. The next time a nuclear threat emerges, will Pakistani authorities catch it in time?”
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Walsingham's Ghost
May 6th, 2009 8:22pm Report this comment"The next time a nuclear threat emerges, will Pakistani authorities catch it in time?”
No, because the Security and Military hierarchy in Pakistan is now so corrupt and compromised that it is beyond any kind of redemption.
With the Insurgent forces moving with frightening speed and efficiency down from the Swat Valley area towards Islamabad and the lamentably weak resistance being put-up by the Government forces, it is clear that the Pakistan Military has no stomach for this fight, since deep down, most of them don't entirely disagree with the aims of their opponents,
The endgame here is a brutal but inevitable one - since the US (let alone India) cannot possibly allow the insurgent forces to overrun Pakistan's nuclear weapons facilities and target them at will, they will have to launch a pre-emptive strike against those self-same facilities.
When you get right down to it, the thinking in the US and India will be that if there HAS to be a nuclear wasteland somewhere, then rather it be in the area formally known as Islamabad, than Delhi or Manhattan...
Cogito Ergosum
May 6th, 2009 8:49pm Report this commentDeterrence meant little between powers that were reluctant to use nukes. But in the future ... ?
Gil
May 6th, 2009 9:16pm Report this commentDon't worry about Iran, James. Israel will pull the chestnuts out of the fire for everyone. Sigh. Cue, condemnations from the Left, Islamists (The Saudis and Gulf will be delighted though) and the UN.
JohnAnt
May 7th, 2009 12:25am Report this commentIf the US does want to strike against the nuclear facilities in Islamabad, they'd also need to capture the chief scientists, before they pass on - willingly or as unwilling hostages of the insurgents - weapons core to the Taliban. I'd give it a week, tops.
Austin Barry
May 7th, 2009 7:54am Report this commentIf the insurgents reach and take control of Islamabad then the US and India will need to consider immediate action to remove any possibility of Pakistan's nuclear weapons being used by the Taliban/Al Queda axis of Islamist madness. Quite how the swaggering suit of self-regard that is Obama will reconcile a brutal but necessary intervention with his current 'outreach' programme will be instructive. I suspect that he will bottle it and let India do the heavy lifting.
Bill Corr
May 7th, 2009 9:13am Report this commentIf and when - and it is more likely to be when than to be if, as we all know, Pakistan goes down the toilet, how many tragic 'refugees' will present themselves at Heathrow demanding to be admitted?
Just wondering.
Graeme Stewart
May 7th, 2009 4:02pm Report this commentThose members within the Pakistani SIS and their nuclear establishment helping AQ should be dealt with as enemies i.e. killed.
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