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Sunday, 24th May 2009

Blair confidant: Tony knew Gordon wasn't good enough to beat Cameron

James Forsyth 1:12pm

The Independent on Sunday reports that Tony Blair has been into Downing Street to advise Gordon Brown. One can only imagine what Blair makes of the mess that the man who spent so long before plotting to take his job is now making of it. But judging by what John Burton, Blair’s constituency agent, writes in the Mail on Sunday, Blair can’t be entirely surprised by the situation:

“After his farewell speech at Trimdon Labour Club in May, 2007, Tony told me he knew he would have been able to deal with Conservative leader David Cameron at the next General Election, but he didn't believe Gordon would have it in him.”
The article, an extract from Burton’s forthcoming book, also provides yet another example of how tense relations were between Blair and Brown at times:
Once, Gordon had to be physically restrained when he got into a temper over an election campaign issue.”
As Burton says, one of the biggest mistakes Blair made was not to move Brown when he had the chance to do so. By choosing to accept Brown as PM to his president, Blair severely limited his and his administration’s effectiveness. 

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Slim Jim

May 24th, 2009 1:36pm Report this comment

I wonder what advice Bliar gave to Brown? ''Just lie to them Gordon, it worked for me''...

Andy Leeds

May 24th, 2009 1:46pm Report this comment

Yes well, it is all Blairs fault. He gave us this idiot; he allowed this idiot to wreck the States finances. And of course he sodded off into the sunset with his index-linked pension and fat fees on the lecture circuit.

David

May 24th, 2009 1:59pm Report this comment

Wasn't Cameron leading Blair by around 10-12 points by the time he left office? I have no doubt that Blair would have been able to counter some of Cameron's advantages and skills with his own abilities - unlike Brown - but Blair was seen as both tired and weak by the time he left office - even if still more personable and human than Brown.

Verity

May 24th, 2009 2:05pm Report this comment

Well, Blair was right about one thing: he would have been able to wipe the floor with the Cameron.

However, events, dear boy, in the form of the global economic collapse, have intervened and it's not politics as usual, so Blair's certainty that Brown couldn't prevail over Cameron was then, and this is now.

So far, the people who are advising Brown, and Brown's own inclination to touchy secrecy, are prevailing in the troughing debacle. Despite the Labourites being overwhelmingly ahead in guilt, they are winning the fight to christen this whole dishonourable episode "Tory Sleaze".

TrevorsDen

May 24th, 2009 3:01pm Report this comment

Blaior effectivel;y buggered Broitain by not sacking Brown.

Now he want to see Britain continuing to be buggered by offering his 'help'. Blair has helped Britain to enough misery thank you.

Shows all Blair is interested in is Labour survival not Britain.

Dave

May 24th, 2009 3:30pm Report this comment

This shows what a devious low life pair blair and brown are and that we should be very worried what brown will do in his pursuit of clinging onto power. Don’t be at all surprised if he carries on with his “no election during the recession” stance, I bet he’s already checking the laws on states of emergency and postponing elections in time of crisis.

strapworld

May 24th, 2009 3:34pm Report this comment

Another soldier killed today. How many of our armed services have lost their lives on campaigns started by Blair?

As important how many have suffered terrible injuries?

We should bring our troops home. They are not properly protected, they have not got the proper equipment and it is a war we cannot win.

TIME TO BRING THEM HOME I hope Cameron says he will.

Alan Douglas

May 24th, 2009 3:40pm Report this comment

Blair should be arraigned for treason. The glib smiley face masking the slasher at work in the shadows.

Those Tory Demon Eyes posters were spot on.

Alan Douglas

Verity

May 24th, 2009 4:21pm Report this comment

TrevorsDen - No. All Blair has ever been interested in is Blair and his own advancement. By whatever means fit the bill at the time.

strapworld

May 24th, 2009 5:02pm Report this comment

Blair should face charges, after a full investigation reports into the Iraq war. Alongwith Brown and all Blair's cabinet!

War criminals the lot of them.

That might hold Cameron back, should he feel the need to send in our troops.

Suki

May 24th, 2009 5:11pm Report this comment

The same John Burton piece also destroys the myth of the 'Granita pact' between Blair and Brown, which only goes to show how biased the cultural elite is.

Remember the Channel 4 drama The Deal? You know the one. Labour are the good guys but they'd be even gooder if Gordon Brown was PM, but this film explains why he can't be PM for while at least.

Total cobblers. Yet it was repeated ad nauseum by journalists who let Campbell and co spin them every which way.

How on earth could they make a film of it, for heaven's sake? What a fascinating propaganda document it now looks. The message of the film was the more Left wing you are the better PM you'd be.

And where is all this cultural mythologising of Left wing politicians being repeated?

Why, with Barack O'Teleprompter.

Oscar

May 24th, 2009 5:18pm Report this comment

David - I don't think Blair was that far behind in the polls. On average it was more like 5 or 6 points behind. The Brownites talked up the Tory poll lead as a catastrophe in their efforts to displace Blair, but it was never consistently in double figures as it has been under Brown. And Verity - Cameron would have wiped the floor with Blair. Cameron's interview today with Marr shows he is a man of real substance and steel.

Steve

May 24th, 2009 5:30pm Report this comment

How arrogant of Blair to think he could beat Cameron in a 2009/10 election when he scored less votes in England than Michael Howard in 2005. The British public were seriously fed up with with New labour and Blair by 2005 but they still won the election because of an electoral system heavily biased in their favour and the national media campaigned for them on the simple message that the Tories are worse. Our present economic collapse stems from many decisions which took place when Brown was in the Treasury and Blair failed to stand up to him at No. 10. History will judge Balir harshly for this, and it would have certainly lost him the next election if he had stayed.

Kalvis Jansons

May 24th, 2009 6:14pm Report this comment

This is my advice:

http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/please-go/

Edward

May 24th, 2009 6:33pm Report this comment

Relax !

The Independent on Sunday was misinformed.

My reliable source advises that Blair was summoned to Downing Street to explain why his expenses were shredded.

My source also advised that Tony told Gordon that he was only following Cherie's orders.

Oscar

May 24th, 2009 7:09pm Report this comment

Suki - that Deal bollocks was one of the biggest myths spun by Brown and his cohorts. Even tho' the poll figures from the time show irrefutably Brown had absolutely no chance of beating Blair for the leadership, the leftist political class, C4, BBC et al spun it and spun and spun it until everyone took it for gospel. Brown's circles certainly learnt the lesson of Goebbels. Just make the lie a whopper and keep on repeating it.

Geoff Herbert alias Trebher

May 24th, 2009 7:20pm Report this comment

I am fascinated by the many mis-spellings of the name of a once immaculate Labour leader appearing in this column. Of the psychological undertones. Of the yet untapped potential.

Slim Jim has "Bliar". Suggesting a departure from the absolute truth.
Trevorsden has "Blaior". An ancient warrior from the middle Earth, then known as "Broitan", perhaps with a Welsh grandfather.

There remain such interesting possibilities as Bilar, Blari, Brila,Abril,Libra,Rabli,Ilarb,
Brail,Albri, and,of course, Lairb.

This may be part of the process of deconstructing the erstwhile galant but also sensitive prime minister.

As for Brown, we may expect Born, Wronb, Norb and Rownb, suggestive of an honest but ponderous spirit the victim of his own circumstance.

Symbiosis reigns!

JONNY

May 24th, 2009 7:35pm Report this comment

'Despite the Labourites being overwhelmingly ahead in guilt, they are winning the fight to christen this whole dishonourable episode "Tory Sleaze'

If this is true, and I very much doubt if it is, it will because the 'Real Conservatives' of Verity's fond imagination, seem to have been misbehaving themselves in rather memorable and picturesque ways.
If the Tory vote is holding up comparatively, it is solely because of Cameron.
Not that he gets any thanks from the Looney Right.
So let's come clean and swallow the bitter pill. Without Cameron the Tory Party would be heading for yet another terrible election result.

Tiberius

May 24th, 2009 8:21pm Report this comment

Verity: you're still looking down the wrong end of the telescope.

It would have taken Cameron to beat Blair. The politically naive remainder of the Tory Party, which you dream of seeing back in situ, had their chance and would have failed again.

John Redwood, for example, would have difficulty beating Brown. He wouldn't have had a prayer against Blair.

Verity

May 25th, 2009 12:10am Report this comment

Jonny - I can't be bothered to refute your points. Sometimes you post challenging thoughts, but not this time.

Tiberius, I'm not looking down a telescope at all.

Cameron could not have beaten Blair. Cameron is a weak man with no hint of leadership about him, although he carries more than a hint of committees in his wake. But there is no Leader to follow.

Michael Howard beat Blair in England. Cameron could have done no better. The rest were going to vote for the second-hand Jaguar salesman regardless.

Why bring John Redwood into it? Michael Howard beat Blair in England. Michael Howard beat Blair. Repeat this 12 times.

Your historical memory, especially for someone who styles himself Tiberius, is faulty. Michael Howard beat Blair.

Kirsty

May 25th, 2009 8:11am Report this comment

He would certainly have done better against Cameron than Brown. But I'm not sure if he could beat Cameron. Having been the PM for 10 years, he had a lot baggage. Had he stayed on as PM, the Blairite-Brownite war would have got even worse, and further damaged nulabour. TBH, he's always looked pretty clueless on the economy, I don't think he would have inspired more confidence in a recession than Brown.

Blair clearly recognised Cameron's political skills very early on, unlike Brown who genuinely believes DC has no substance. How can he beat Cameron when he doesn't even understand Cameron is actually quite good?

Oscar

May 25th, 2009 8:48am Report this comment

"As for Brown, we may expect Born, Wronb, Norb and Rownb, suggestive of an honest but ponderous spirit the victim of his own circumstance."

Please spare us this elegantly, erudite twaddle Geoff Herbert. The idea that Brown is either honest or a victim of circumstances will be torn to shreds by historians. Along with 'the Deal' it's just part of the myth machine that has invented the entirety of Brown's persona. Absolutely none of it is true.

Jonny and Tiberius - absolutely agree.

Oscar

May 25th, 2009 8:51am Report this comment

Cameron is a weak man with no hint of leadership about him, although he carries more than a hint of committees in his wake. But there is no Leader to follow.

Just replace that 'Cameron' with 'Brown' Verity and I would wholly agree with you. But with respect to Cameron it is complete and utter nonsense.

King Prawn

May 25th, 2009 9:44am Report this comment

Why are people getting excited about the fact that Michael Howard secured more votes in England than Blair at the last election.

Remember that a lot of core Labour voters in their northern strongholds did not vote because of Iraq War. Iraq ia not such a toxic subject now.

Also the Lib-Dems tried a de-capitation campaign at the last election trying to destroy the Tory Shadow Cabinet. Howard, himself, had a majority of only around 2,000 in his constituency. The Tories did everything they could to get the vote out in these constituencies.

It is for these two reasons that the Tories secured more votes than Labour in 2005.

The difference between Blair and Brown is that Blair had a genuine narrative for the future of this country.

Interestingly, if Blair could have survived another eighteen months then Northern Rock and the destruction of Brown's tripartite system for overseeing the banking system could have given him the excuse to finally remove Brown from the Treasury.

EC

May 25th, 2009 10:35am Report this comment

The 2005 results for England can be found here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/vote2005/html/england.stm

The Tories polled more votes and won 92 fewer seats!

The 1st past the post system will always throw up a few anomalies, but 92?!!!

The 2005 election was a fraud and Labour's antisemitic campaign against Michael Howard was a disgrace.

Cameron is right about one thing only. Our nation desperately needs far fewer career politicians in parliament. He and Osborne should start by freeing up their own seats.

JONNY

May 25th, 2009 10:58am Report this comment

Jonny - I can't be bothered to refute your points. Sometimes you post challenging thoughts, but not this time.

So you don't agree, despite all the diagnostic evidence, that Cameron is running streets ahead of his party in popular approval?
That's my head-in-the-sand Verity.

Tiberius

May 25th, 2009 12:26pm Report this comment

Oh, Verity. Don't you see how silly it is for you to make the bald assertion thet Howard beat Blair?

My faulty memory seems to suggest to me that Michael Howard sadly never was Prime Minister.

Verity

May 25th, 2009 4:18pm Report this comment

Tiberius - Did you fail English Comprehension? I wrote that Michael Howard beat Blair in England.

Jonny writes, with gross over-familiarity: "That's my head-in-the-sand Verity." Do not presume, you crude oaf.

EC - I was astonished at how Blair and company got away with the gross anti-Semitism employed against Mr Howard. These are people who find "racism" in every nook and cranny of British life, yet commit offences with impunity that would get anyone else put on some kind of register. The campaign was absolutely disgraceful, and if anything could have impelled me to feel greater hatred for Blair, that would have been it. Unfortunately, I am at the human limits of hatred for Blair and nothing could have made my loathing any more intense.

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