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Saturday, 30th May 2009

Labour trailing behind the Lib Dems in ICM poll

Peter Hoskin 8:56pm

Well, well, well - it just goes from bad to worse for Labour.  A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has them behind the Lib Dems when it comes to general election voting intentions.  The Tories are well ahead on 40 percent (up 1), then it's Clegg & Co. on 25 percent (up 5), and then Labour trailing in third, on 22 percent (down 6).  I stress: this is in answer to the question "Who would you support in a general election?" - it's nothing to do with European or local elections.

Of course, all the usual caveats apply.  This could well be a rogue, and - even if it's not - the Lib Dem support could, theoretically, plummet once the spotlight stops shining on Nick Clegg.  But, even so, this remains devastating for Brown, and can only fuel the raging debate about his future.  Coupled with the finding this morning that Brown is the party leader most damaged by the expenses scandal, the option of ditching him will be more and more tempting for Labour MPs.  This is going to be a fascinating, and potentially bloody, few weeks in politics.

P.S. The ICM poll also has Euro voting intention figures, which make for more grim reading for Labour.  Here they are:

Conservatives: 29 percent (-1) 
Lib Dems: 20 percent (+2)
Labour: 17 percent (-7) 
Greens: 11 percent (+2)
UKIP: 10 percent (n/c)
BNP: 5 percent (+4)

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Comments Post comment

Silent Hunter

May 30th, 2009 9:17pm Report this comment

Happy days are here again...
The skies above are clear again...
Let's have that General Elec-tion now...
Happy days - are - here - again.

Mitch

May 30th, 2009 9:21pm Report this comment

Ahh the power of the "big clunking fist"
Its a good job that gordon doesnt do elections cos this might be a problem.
Dont forget the legions of postal voter though hehehe!

Wilhelm

May 30th, 2009 9:30pm Report this comment

Hopefully Gordon Broon will stay as leader , he is the architect of the destruction of the liebour party, and that is what we all want , isnt it ? the liebour party sent into oblivion for 20 years.

Peter Wilson

May 30th, 2009 9:39pm Report this comment

ICM is the most reliable pollster since 1992, it's the only one that is comparable with 1997 which at the time showed 13 points for Labour, so 20 points for the Tories is just terrible for Labour

Silent Hunter

May 30th, 2009 9:57pm Report this comment

Wilhelm:

Only 20 years?

Let's call it a nice round 200 years. LOL

Nicholas

May 30th, 2009 10:02pm Report this comment

There'll be bluebirds over
The white cliffs of Dover,
Tomorrow
Just you wait and see.

There'll be joy and laughter
And peace ever after,
Tomorrow
When England is free.

Gawain

May 30th, 2009 10:05pm Report this comment

The queen is going to have to call an election. If she doesn't this could all get quite silly.

jason arneil

May 30th, 2009 10:12pm Report this comment

"so 20 points for the Tories is just terrible for Labour", err, so Labour had a 13 point lead over the 2nd place party in the poll in 1997, and the Tories have a 9 point lead in this one, so which one is worse again?

logdon

May 30th, 2009 10:20pm Report this comment

And it's getting to him. Surely by now he must know.

His idiotic mistakes in thinking the same old, same old hogwash will work as he always, without fail tries to gain political advantage out of a situation which has our population in a righteous rage has a total reverse effect.

Each clumsy word designed for positional gain whilst jerking and grinning insanely only confirms the worst we ever thought of him. And his clodhopping compadres.

Britain needs a complete clean sweep to clear this midden away.

From education which doesn't educate to the way our councils operate we have to get rid of the slow creep of marxist politically correct ideology which has infected our public services and political classes.

The expenses fiasco has been the last straw out of a whole haystack and we, at last are telling them it's over.

Both UKIP and the BNP will do well next week but they are mere protest votes by an electorate pushed into a corner, at it's wits end and just aching to see the back of this thieving and destructive apology of a government.

Cameron has a golden opportunity which arrives once in a while in our political landscape. It’s all there, laid out for him with voters just beseeching him to step up to the plate, establish a return to moral authority and reality , then do what must be done.

No more silly eco stunts, we’re beyond that posturing. No more heir to Blair soundbites, nothing angers us more. Major’s back to basics was sound politics, it’s just that he was the wrong man, in the wrong place at the wrong time. Cameron needs to establish such an aura, linking with his broken Britain message.

Then do something about it. How simple is that, yet how far from our current politicians mental grasp?

No doubt the public service workers will be whipped into a howling frenzy as the dead wood is ruthlessly removed but Britain, right now cannot afford the luxury of these sponging parasitic passengers who always metaphorically travel, first class. And apart from the obvious dedicated core of vital service workers do what, precisely?

Will it happen? I guess that’s the eternal paradox of life, always not quite right. But anything, anything post this bunch of kleptocratic numpties has to some kind of improvement.

James J

May 30th, 2009 10:22pm Report this comment

As people can lose their jobs for being supporters of the BNP I would have thought they would be a bit reluctant to have their support recorded by a polling company. So add a few percent to their total.
When we believed in individual liberty and democracy the figures would have been a more accurate reflection of voting intentions.

Mark C

May 30th, 2009 10:23pm Report this comment

OT but have you seen the reaction to the Mr Fraser's favourite cabinet minister's latest offering on the Guardian at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/29/parliament-reform-a-new-politics

Comment is now disabled. As is the loathsome Mr Purnell's leadership campaign.

He always was a phoney and now he has been rumbled.

Dirty Euro

May 30th, 2009 10:37pm Report this comment

I think the PM has to change the subject somehow.
He has to get back to being the man of experience, talking about the economy.
He needs to spark the interest in the economy again. How about another bank bailout. The expenses stuff is just bad for labour no matter what!
Even if tories are found with their hand in trough it is labour who get the blame. I noticed this with that tory guy who got found out a year ago some people genuinely seemed to think the guy was labour. No one seems to care if the crooked mps are tory or labour labour get the blame.
My ideas would be simply change the subject.
They have to do what ever they can to change the subject.;

TrevorsDen

May 30th, 2009 10:46pm Report this comment

'Mitch' --- "big clunking fist", Blair was in fact the victim of an overexcited spoonerism when he said this. what he meat to say was Brown is "a big f***ing cyst"

I suspect we will be in for a whole series of interesting memoires in a year or so as various cabinet ministers dish the dirt on each other and Blair and Brown in particular. What these latter two say about each other (with the added enticement of newspaper serial rights) out to be interesting as well.

David Ossitt

May 30th, 2009 10:50pm Report this comment

Silent Hunter

Wilhelm

For ever and ever amen.

Victor NW Kent

May 30th, 2009 11:19pm Report this comment

I hear about jobs, Europe, car factories, Mandelson, Deripaska. I thought we had done all of that over the LDV factory.

Mandelson and Deripaska seem to have 6 degrees, not of separation but of connection. Last I heard the Russian was broke and asking Mandy for 3-million to bail out LDV.

Callie

May 30th, 2009 11:27pm Report this comment

TORIES SHOULDN'T BE CROWING, YOU WILL SOON BE IN THRID POSITION IN THE POLLS AFTER THE MAIL ON SUNDAY INVESTIGATION INTO DAVID CAMERON AND HIS SECOND HOME!!!!!!!!

Morus

May 30th, 2009 11:45pm Report this comment

Peter - I hate to correct you, but the last time Labour was in third wasn't 22 years ago.

24 Sept 2004, C(31), LD(29), Lab(28) with Populus in the News of the World, according to the ever excellent UK Polling Report

Not that such an anomaly makes this any less remarkable!

Mark S

May 31st, 2009 6:49am Report this comment

The plain fact is that the rest of the world, and especially the anti-conservative politicians, look to Labour Britain for inspiration.

Denis MacShane MP Yorkshire Post 12 April 2006

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/Register.aspx?ReturnURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yorkshirepost.co.uk%2Fcolumnists%2FBlair39s-Britain-is-a-European.1437311.jp

London Calling

May 31st, 2009 8:03am Report this comment

Amen...

Dorothy Wilson

May 31st, 2009 8:48am Report this comment

Dirty Euro:
"I think the PM has to change the subject somehow.
He has to get back to being the man of experience"

Over the years I've interviewed a good many people who have boasted 20 years experience. When probbed it turns out they have actually had one years experience repeated twenty times. They think they deserve credit for being stuck in a rut, repeating the same old thing over and over again. Meanwhile the world has moved on and they simply cannot cope with the reality of it. They are a bit sad.

Remind anyone of Brown?

And as for Mark S quoting MacShane, why on earth would anyone believe anything that silly, self-promoting man would say?

Alf Tupper C.R.O.F.

May 31st, 2009 8:58am Report this comment

Photo: Brown drowning in Guinness.

Mitch

May 31st, 2009 9:20am Report this comment

perhaps He said "big clucking fistula"..
Either way gordon is the biggest let down since.....well ever really,12 yrs of foreplay and ......nothing.

Julianlzb87

May 31st, 2009 9:31am Report this comment

Just watching the snot gobbler
prattling about a presbytarian conscience. At least one of us is seriously ill.

EC

May 31st, 2009 9:39am Report this comment

Callie,

I think that ZaNuLab and the Old Etonians are going to be fighting it out for THRID 'n FROUTH place on Thursday.

"So what." ( ee Balls)

EC

May 31st, 2009 9:55am Report this comment

Gawain @ 10:05pm

She would be within her rights to do so. I would love this to happen.

Unfortunately there it might be some public order considerations and NuLab have ensured that most of our underfunded, ill-equipped Army is either pinned down overseas or has resigned in disgust.

Ian Walker

May 31st, 2009 10:02am Report this comment

I wonder if all the people who still think first-past-the-post is a fair system would like to comment on how those figures would give (according to electoralcalculus.co.uk) Labour 160 seats and the Lib Dems 80?

The Lib Dems and the Tories should get together on an electoral reform ticket - they both win at Labour's expense.

Hawkeye

May 31st, 2009 11:00am Report this comment

Mark S quoted Denis MacShane saying: "The plain fact is that the rest of the world, and especially the anti-conservative politicians, look to Labour Britain for inspiration."

In that case, can we expect a worldwide admission of the failure that is socialism and its consigning to the history books? Even banana republics are better run than we are at present. The LDV/GM trucks debacle is a case in point. Why did we not solve two problems in one go by acquiring GM Trucks and merging it with LDV? I'm sure a consortium could have been put together and it would give the UK a firm base in automotives again.

But no, Mandy could not even be bothered to get on an aeroplane and turn up.

Andy

May 31st, 2009 8:17pm Report this comment

"The plain fact is that the rest of the world, and especially the anti-conservative politicians, look to Labour Britain for inspiration." What for? Tips on how to bankrupt a nation?

Richard Manns

May 31st, 2009 9:47pm Report this comment

(apologies to Carlsberg)

"Brown doesn't do elections.
But if he did, they'd probably be the best elections in 30 years..."

Paul B

June 1st, 2009 10:36am Report this comment

Very good Richard Manns.

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