Labour behind UKIP in final pre European election poll

Oscar

Thanks for that helpful expectations management on behalf of the Conservatives James. Not.

Peter Buss

Not sure about your last statement. What with the expenses scandal and Tebbits call not to vote Tory, to do as wll as last time wouldn't be too bad.

Vulture

Dave has the solution in his own hands. Merely declare that he will give us the LIsbon Treaty referendum whatever the circumstances, and he will see UKIP votes slide his way. By not doing so he lends weight to the suspicion that he is a slave to the EUSSR. Public opinion has turned inexorably against the EU tyranny.

William Blakes Ghost

Peter Kellner (of Yougov) has confirmed on Pb.com that the Con 37 Lab 21 LD 19 UKIP 8 figures are in fact Westminster headline figures.

The Telegraph have made a real dog's breakfast of their article.

Am Balach

No, the 37,21,19,8 figures are for a general election. Read the badly written Telegraph article again.

David Cameron, please note..........

I'm voting UKIP for certain.

Sorry David, but your EU policy is simply not good enough for me. I want Labour out, passionately, but if all the Conservatives are going to do is implement the same, ongoing flood of European directives and 75% of Britains laws come from the EU then wants the point.

"We will not let matters rest there" is not inspiring enough for me.

Unless the other EU members agree unanimously to give Britain powers back via Treaty changes then there is no way this undemocratic horror story will change.

Mr Cameron, this issue is the difference between a big majority and two terms and a small but manageable majority.

Dan Hannan and Douglas Carswell "get it". I genuinely hope, that in time, you "get it" too Mr Cameron.

Charlie T

Just goes to show UKIP is the really really really stupid wing of the stupid party.

The only saving grace for Blair in 2004 was UKIP depressing the Tory vote. So mitigating Labours own poor showing. Looks like we are in for a rerun in 2009.Then as now a vote for UKIP is the surest wasted vote of the lot.

Most UKIPers are ex Tories. If they had stayed within the Conservative Party they could have influenced the debate to their advantage and gained some traction. Instead they split off to drain away Conservative support. And in the general election they were worth 20 odd seats to Labour without doing themselves or their cause any good.

Sunday night could have seen the Tories around 40% and Labour less than 20%. Instead the Tory lead wont look that great thus giving some modicum of cheer to Labour. And more grist to the mill of Cameron's right wing and press critics.

The same dying gutterpress who are puffing up UKIP would usually savage them as reactionary, xenophobic, Tory backwoodsmen. But they know that splitting the conservative vote and directing the anti EU element down an ineffective blind alley is all to their good. It also has the added advantage of blocking the other party they hate more than UKIP (and the Conservative Party).

If you cant vote Labour then vote UKIP that's what Labour hacks want. But hey come Sunday night/Monday the Carry On characters who speak for UKIP (and some of the more simple minded posters on this board) will delude themselves that they have won a great victory and are influential. All they will really do is subdivide the anti EU cause into even smaller boxes and give Labour a very small lifeline. Meanwhile the Eurocrats will carry on unabashed Like I say really really really stupid.

Trevorsden

Apparently Bin Laden has released a new video offering to be Home Secretary.

Andrew Cadman

Tory support is very soft. There is no real enthusiasm for the party out there. I think with Alan Jonhson in charge Labour could well get a hung parliament in an election, given that one must never remember that the Tories need at least an 8% clear lead to get a simple majority.

tenpin

Do these polls account for electoral fraud? (Glenrothes and apparently this time round Blackburn). I would not be surprised comethe election Labore get in with a huge majority despite a low turnout (wink, wink...)

AlphaRomeoMike

James,

For clarification, Peter Kellner has stated on PB.com that the 37/21/19 figs are Westminster voting intention.

David

"then there will be some disquiet in Conservative circles."

There shouldn't be. The expenses scandal throws everything out of the window.

Moraymint

Too right there should be disquiet in Conservative circles; they continue to dick about on the subject of Europe.

As with the unfolding nightmare of the wonders of Westminster, can the Tories not see that the EU is bad for Britain; simple as that?

The EU is undemocratic; it is corrupt; it is a black hole for UK taxpayers' hard-earned spondoolicks; its costs - economic and social - far, far exceed its benefits to this nation. That's the long and the short of it, and anything else said in favour of the EU is just b*llsh*t.

As we here in the UK enter an era (probably a generation) of the equivalent of wartime austerity, the last thing we need is a (Tory) Government that is not 100% committed to getting us the hell out of the EU.

That's why I've voted UKIP, much to the spleen-venting anger of some of my fellow posters on this fine blog.

Over to you 'hysteria'.

Alfred T Mahan

Charlie T, I have tried influencing the Tory party from the inside and I've got nowhere. There has been no appetite whatsoever on the part of the leadership to become more Euro-sceptic - they've been too scared of the damage that Patten, Heseltine and others of their gang would do, despite the clear evidence that the majority of the party disagree with them. Or perhaps the leadership taken as a whole aren't representative of the membership.

If your voice isn't heard, there isn't much else to do but leave, is there? Provided you feel strongly enough, of course. UKIPs seem to.

Andy Leeds

Lets face it: the EU is yesterday's solution to the problem of the day before. We should never have joined and we should now be grown up enough to realize we should leave.

mac

While Toynbee and Ashley have pointedly abandoned Brown (well, until they change their minds again) their erstwhile Scott Trust sister Riddell ramps up her 'Gordon is God' delusion. Evidently she is suffering from terminal Brownbunker fever (or is Trilby to some McBridean Svengali).

Either way, she's demented.

See:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5437869/Gordon-Brown-will-fight-to-the-death.html

What a strange rag the Telegraph has
become . . . .

Dirty Euro

Blears Toynbee, the moron rebel MPs and the guardian go have killed the labour party. We will be lucky to get 12% tommorow. I am going for indepencnce from the UK. I do not want to be in the UK when the left wing establishment are so dumb they damage the chances of the UK being left wing.

Hysteria

I agree

the zeitgeist has changed - and Dave and the boys don't get it - unless they are a LOT cleverer than we give them credit for.

Marco

At this moment, despite the expenses scandal, the Tory Party should have a huge majority over Labour. The assorted right-wing Euro nutters on this page, combined with such as Tebbit and Wheeler, provide confidence to Labour that not only will the Tories never again form a majority government, but all our future governments will be some combination of Labour and Liberal Democrats. Thanks to the Euro nutters, this country will become a province of the future European superstate.

Manfredo

90% of UKIP voters in the Euro elections will vote Tory in the General.

Alex

Andrew Cadman = Labour Lister

Tiberius

Charlie T: that is a superbly argued contribution.

I would merely depict UKIP voters as Redneck Tories.

TrevorsDen

This has been a great election campaign for the tories they have not had to talk about Europe and the labour party has imploded.

Charlie T has written a rare insightful post (not for him, just the general blogosphere) on the lunacy of the UKIP voter.

Cameron and the Tories HAVE promised a referendum on the treaty. But the next election is still 11 months away! Labour still have a majority of 60.

Moraymint - the main electorate do not care about Europe and an era of austerity is likely to make them even more afraid of leaving.

Me, I want out as well, but unlike people who vote UKIP - I have a brain. The immediate issue should be repatriation of powers, it should be an end to gold plating it should be accountability it should be transparency.

All good conservative ideals.

TGF UKIP

"Tory support is very soft." Quite correct, Andrew Cadman, and who could reasonably expect it to be otherwise when its Leader articulates not only no conservative convictions but no convictions of any sort other than extremist green ones.

Given the substantial degree of public scepticism on green propaganda articulated widely and vigorously on this website, it really would be amazing if the Tory poll lead was anything other than cotton wool soft.

Barks

I am voting UKIP woop woop !

J H Holloway

'one must never remember that the Tories need at least an 8% clear lead to get a simple majority'

Cadman, you are wrong. That 'line' is based on the myth of the consistent, countrywide swing.

The Tories only need an extra 1000 votes or so, in the 33 key seats with small majorities, to wipe out Labour's 66 seat lead.

That's just 33,000 individual votes....

I had decided to forgo a protest vote tomorrow, and these figures confirm it for me.

Nick Kaplan

Charlie T; I agree that it is irrational and damaging to vote for UKIP in a general election for precisely the reasons you set out.

However I don’t think the same applies for EU elections. Whoever wins seats in Europe there is no hope that any change will be made, the EU is too large, too distant , too unaccountable, too corrupt, too corrupting and too much in the control of the Federalists for that. A vote for the Conservatives or for UKIP in the EU elections is not therefore a vote for change in the EU.

Instead, a vote for UKIP is a vote for change in Conservative party policy. The only way of ever dealing with the EU problem is to pull out of the EU, and the only way to convince the Tories to pull out is to vote for UKIP.

That is why I will be voting UKIP tomorrow, and I think it is perfectly reasonable to do so.

Jon

TGF UKIP - why don't you keep your comment in a file, and just copy/paste it every time there is a new article here in The Spectator. You'll save yourself lots of time.

.... oh, maybe that's what you do already

Greg Heathcliffe.

Neither William Hague nor David Cameron ever answers a question, they just say "wait and see" what we will do. What form of answer is that to place the future of our nation on? Since neither of them have said for certain that they will negotiate our way from the EU, meaning more of what we've had for the last 36 years, I can't trust the Tories to put Britain first, only their political careers.
Labour are currently unelectable while the Lib-Dems and Greens are too wishy-washy to be considered as serious contenders in today's vote.
We can discount the "also ran" parties (YD, BNP etc) who will be lucky to pick up a seat between them.
That leaves UKIP as the only sensible choice in my book, and where my vote is going when I arrive at the polling station in just over an hour!

Fergus Pickering

I am a redneck Tory. I shall vote UKIP tomorrow and Tory in the general election. It is a pity that all the UKIP MEPs except for Farage are fools and crooks, but, hell, isn't that the way politicians are. Marta Andriessen (I'll bet I've spelt her name wrong)is a UKIP candidate in my area. That's the brave lady who said the EU apparatchiks are all on the take and was sacked by that corrupt rich socialist bastard Kinnock. Justimagine. She will be back in the EU as an MEP. Won't that get up all their snouts. Do remember, the whole EU machine is corrupt. They are all on the take. MEPs earn £350,000 a year before they take all their expenses. Any MEP who isn't a millionaire in three years really isn't trying. And we pay for it. We PAY for it.

David

Amazing the number of Michael Foot supporters here. His policy of withdrawal from the EU as it was a capitalist conspiracy nuts in the 80s and it's nuts now.

trent

thelondondailynews poll at 6am,
somewhat different to this.
Out of 1,454 votes results:
bnp 50.69%
con 18.64%
lab 7.08%
ukip 6.12%
green 6.05%
lib 5.09%

Vulture

I'm a Conservative. That means, among other things, that I wish to remain a citizen of a free and independent nation whose elected Parliament makes the laws under which we live. That has become incompatible with the ongoing EU project to create an undemocratic European federal superstate. Unless and until the Conservative party commits itself to withdrawing Britain from the EU, I and millions of other Britons will deny them our votes. Its as simple as that, really. If wanting to live outside a bureaucratic dictatorship makes me a Euro nutter, then so be it.

Common Place

Mayhem, Deadlock and Drift.

Not a Dickensian legal firm, but the choice presented to voters.

Andrew Shanks

Fergus,
Its extremely rich to claim "all UKIP MEPs are fools and crooks.. the only proven crook was Adrian Mole - and he never took his seat as a UKIP MEP. As for Tom Wise - he it seems is guilty until proven innocent.. because the EU Fraud Squad say he is. I know many of the UKIP MEPs, and believe me, what you say is 100% wrong - they are neither fools nor crooks.

Andre

I shall vote Libertas and revert to the Tories at the next election purely to overturn the Hunting Act

Lord Boyders

A vote for UKIP is a waste.

Josh

At least the Greens aren't making any progress. I'd rather the BNP got in than the ecofascists.

Paul B

I have voted and it was Conservative for me. I saw Danny Hannons name on the ballot sheet and it was game set and match. Although I do understand the point Nick Kaplan makes above

David Ossitt

David

"Amazing the number of Michael Foot supporters here"

Do not be so silly; those who wish to be out of the EU, are sick and tired of seeing billions of pounds poured into the coffers of the corrupt non democratic entity that is the EU.

In the main; we who oppose, are patriotic democrats, we are also able to see that the EU is a left wing conspiracy.

It will eventually fail; simply because it does not listen to the people.

Tiberius

Fergus: you are the exception that proves the rule about redneck Tories.

But voting UKIP helps Labour in much the same way as backing the Irish government's policy of neutrality would have helped the Axis in WWII.

Fergus Pickering

To anybody who says voting UKIP is nuts say what are you going to do about EU corruption which extends from the top to the bottom. WHAT are you going to do about it? And after the Lisbon Treaty what CAN you do about it? The EU was made for the French and the Germans and it still is. And all the MEPs except for a very few are corrupt, far more corrupt than our lot. FAR more corrupt than our lot.

Publius

David. You commit the oldest logical fallacy in the book. Foot was against the EU. I am against the EU. Therefore I am a Foot supporter. What nonsense!

Nick Kaplan above puts the position succinctly: "A vote for UKIP is a vote for change in Conservative party policy."

Nothing more, nothing less.

RobC

Manfredo - you read my mind and that is exactly what I will do.
Publius - Got it in one.

Denis Cooper

Why should I vote for a party whose leadership does not share my views on the single most important, over-arching, political issue, the EU?

Well, if we were electing MPs today I might think "It's first past the post, and I'd rather have this mildly europhile Tory come first than that eurofanatic Liberal Democrat."

But we're electing MEPs, not MPs, and it's PR not first past the post, so the calculation is entirely different.

However if some Tories can't see that, and they start hurling insults around, there's less of a chance that they'll get my vote even at the next general election.

David Parker

It should not be for Parliament to decide whether or not Britain remains a member of the EU (and agrees to be governed by their laws) but for the British people.

Despite their protestations of innocence and mock contrition over the expenses scandal, the arrogance of the modern political class continues unabated.

An overwhelming majority of the British people, both pro and anti EU membership, feel very strongly that they should be consulted over this vital issue. But still these arrogant politicians, who cannot even add up their own expense sheets correctly, insist that we, the public, are too stupid to decide our own destiny.

Minnie Ovens

David Cameron, please note..........

I agree. I will be voting UKIP because I think Mr Cameron is not to be trusted until he states, quite simply, there will be a Lisbon treaty referendum

George Earle

Denis Cooper, I hope your 0956 post means that you really are going to vote UKIP today, despite past doubts!

Minie Ovens

On these pages there seem to be many who will vote for UKIP instead of Conservative.
There are also many who are angered at this back stabbing of the Conservatives because it hands votes to Labour.
To be quite clear. It only would take a simple statement, by Cameron, that a referendum would be held if they were returned to power, to make me vote Tory.
Cameron refuses to make that statement. Obviously there are others who are more important to him than the anti-EC voters.
I will not vote for people who seem to be controlled by Focus groups and who seem to have no real opinions of their own. Or any real hard Manifesto. Who scorn core voters for the indeterminates.
Unfortunately it is UKIP for me.

Ian C

The big Tory fear is that the expenses scandal has done enough general damage so as to disable their ability to get a clear majority at a general election - something that is now looking probable in the autumn (you read it here first although I failed to back it with a bet; the odds are now at 'evens').

By protest voting you are enhancing the prospects that this could ensure GB's survival beyond that time.

So my planned protest is not going to happen. We will get that chance 3 years into a Tory Gov't if we need it.

David Good

I'm a pensioner and the labour government has stolen,yes STOLEN 15% of my small pension. What is the UKIP AND CONSERVATIVE party's going to do about this stealing of our pensions?

David Good

What do all these M.P.s think they are doing? The public put them in and we can vote them out.Sleeze and scandal,Stealing Bad decisions. If I walked into Sainsburys and stole a bottle of gin and walked out without paying and said I'm sorry here is the money back I made a mistake what would the judge say.

Phoenix One UK

I already voted UKIP, and the reason I chose did so was UKIP is the only party committed to withdrawing the UK from EU, a fact that is entrenched in UKIPs constitution.

Brian

How can one vote for those fraudulent sleaze bags in the main political parties led by schoolboys in long trousers! Lets have some grown men leading this country again.

Damon

I voted UKIP today having always voted Conservative before.

Tactically its the right decision - the way the EU Parliament votes work, then in the South East, the No.1 Conservative, Dan Hannan will definitely get elected - a good thing. What my vote might actually determine is whether some middle of the list likely Europhile Tory gets elected or No.2 on the UKIP list, Marta Andreasen, a very capable and brave woman whose views on the EU mirror my own.

Denis Cooper

Sir George, I still haven't decided.

But here Green = Caroline Lucas, who only got the 9th seat out of 10 last time, and I'm tempted to lend her my vote.

I don't agree with the Green's environmental nonsense, and I don't agree with most of their other policies including their general support for the EU project, but I do have some respect for Lucas's apparently sincere concern about the destruction of democracy by the EU.

So I would be voting for her as a person, simply because I think that the EU Parliament would be a worse place, and the anti-EU cause in this country would actually be significantly weakened, if she didn't scrape back in this time.

What I definitely won't be doing is "voting for Daniel Hannan", a good chap but one who is guaranteed re-election, because my vote could be used to re-elect a known federalist who's been wangled into the fourth place on the Tory list.

I note that none of the main party leaders has said that we should move to an open list system, so that voters could pick and choose between individual candidates.

Anthony

UKIP is, regretabley, the best option within the EU election, it is clear that as the top political brass (uk and European)aren't listening to their constituents they need a full frontal poke in the face.

Just a point to those who can't be bothered / not interested in voting in these elections. Unless you want the BNP (and some of you might) you are by default playing right in to the hands of these extremists. The higher the vote the lower their % and fewer MEPS, but the lower the vote........

If you fail to vote don't criticise the outcome.

oldtimer

John Redwood, hardly a Europhile, made some interesting comments on his blog the other day, see here:
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/05/28/power-to-the-people/

He made the point that withdrawal would be extremely complicated:
"Those who think it best to call for immediate withdrawal need to tell us what kind of arrangements they would want on tariffs, market access, transport links and rights, competition policy and other areas requiring agreement across borders and how these can best be secured."

He went on to make an excellent suggestion:
"I think it best to have a renegotiation, and then to put the results to the people. It is high time the people could express a view on the value of our relationship with the EU. We might get that on Lisbon, if it remains unratified and there is a change of government. If not, let’s have a referendum on any renegotiation. That will concentrate Brussels minds on the need to give us real power back, if the people are going to judge the outcome. As a minimum we need full control of our social and employment policies, taxation, foreign and defence policy, and of Home afairs."

Ryan Riggs

At 18 this was my first time voting (gasp) and I vote UKIP.

Saying it is a wasted vote is not true...simply as it is NOT first past the post. For the general elections I may vote Conservatives as this is a very tight constituency that I live in (like 40 votes in it...) and I would do anything to keep Labour out. The thing is though...there isn't much to suggest Conservatives will be any different other than their name.

George Earle

Dr.Denis Cooper, You know I am sure that this election is not so much about what candidates can achieve in the European Parliament because it is virtually nothing. It is about pressurising Parliament and David Cameron as to what the public really want, No to EU and only a vote for UKIP will do that. We can stand in his path to no. 10 until he takes on our policy of withdrawal if we get a big enough backing now. In any case a UKIP vote will ensure Marta Andreasen gets in amongst the budgetary scoundrels in Brussels. Infinitely better than backing the socialistic eco-fascists, I should think.

Tom Collins

No one has bashed NuLabour !
Is that because they're down, and out ?
The Tories get a slight bashing because they are devious over the Referendum !
AND UKIP get bashed, just because they speak the Truth. Funny old world !

Gadfly

To David Good: UKIP is pledged to increase the state retirement pension by £25 a week.

Marcher Baron

I've voted in the Euro and local elections today. Neither vote went to the party I would traditionally support (Conservative). Why? I don't trust Cameron on Europe and I want to be out. If he'd unconditionally pledged to hold a referendum on Lisbon and drawn up plans for looser ties, he'd have got my vote. The local Conservative councillor who was defending his seat treated me arrogantly over a council matter. I voted for somebody I trust to listen to my side of the argument and not tell me the council can do as it likes and if I want to receive the service I am obliged to pay for, I have to comply with their diktat.

Mike_M

I am a genuine floating voter and pretty average middle class family man. I have been reading your blogs today and I think that you along with almost all mp's don't really get it. Everybody I know ( most of whom are not usually interested in politics but always vote conservative ) are so outraged at ALL MPs that the consensus is that we get them all out. Any goodwill I had towards david cameron is constantly being wiped out by his obvious attempt to blame the expenses scandal on the labour party when all are culpable. Almost everybody I have spoken to is voting independent, mostly UKIP. It's not because they particularly feel any affinity with the UKIP but because the want none of the usual suspects and they are the most reconisable party after the top 3. The conservatives should be thankful that this is not a General Election as I think a coaliyion government is all they would get at the moment. P.S Some of you seem affiliated with the conservative party directly, could you get david cameron to come up with a plan for dealing with the economic crisis, for as much as I want labour out, I would like whoever replaces them to have some sort of plan. Also, stop using media spin, everyones tired of it, its obvious and if you just sit quiet you can watch labour and its spin machine implode.

clive daly

YOU CAN NOT VOTE FOR ANY OTHER PARTY BUT UKIP. JUST LOOK AT THIS COUNTRY UNDER LABOUR OR CONSERVATIVE.UKIP IS OUR LAST CHANCE.