Look to the reshuffle to see whether Brown's enemies have any bottle

David

You are right. If David Milliband had any bottle he wouldn't be fighting to stay Foreign Secretary: he would be resigning at 10.00pm tonight. Alan Johnson seems keener on keeping his hands clean than achieving anything.
This has to be the weakest Cabinet ever, a direct consequence of Brown's poisonous policy of undermining and removing any threat over the last 10 years. People go on about Thatcher but a better analogy is Stalin's Russia. Everyone is too scared to do anything until he is really really dead.

Diana

So many times we have heard about threats to Brown's leadership and yet nothing ever happens.
However, this time I do think it is different. This time the media have taken against him, and I think that will prove to be lethal to Labour.

richardj

What you state is exactly why this unelected man is so unpopular - he is only interested in posturing and positioning and not running the country's affairs in a correct and business like manner.

He has destroyed the excellent financial position of the UK since 1997 and continues to believe he is right and everyone else is wrong. Instead of doing what was correct for the country he has preferred to make gestures such as not wearing black or white tie until becoming PM by stealth and also in the process neutering the electoral process. He has ignored the labour party's manifesto policy of giving a referundum on the new EU constitution.

The day he goes the country will start to repair the damage.

Occasional Ostrich

How about Queen Elizabeth the first? Until then England had never been ruled by a Scot. O, poetic justice, (if anybody has the balls to make it happen!)

michael m

I can see quite well the following scenario:-
Brown is forced out
Johnson is either elected or crowned
Johnson goes on television- pleas with viewers to give him time and support whilst he sorts out things-he is a new boy and has to learn to be PM
He promises election in autumn
He then gets substantial bounce in polls that gathers momentum as autumn nears
Unlike Brown he does not bottle election
If he can get support for Labour back up to 34/35% then Labour will remain largest party
The public are prepared to give him extra time as he is very personable and genuine- no taint of expenses on him etc. He is a very calming and reassuring person and that is probably what voters want
The Labour Party comes back from the dead and Conservative Party has to wait another 4 years
People are fed up with Brown - not Labour- they will be so glad to see the back of him anyone that is a change they will vote for!!
We would be ill advised to count our chickens- Johnson is a very dark horse and could pull it off!

Sir Graphus

But the election results will also be poor for the Tories. This will give Brown some respite.

Vulture

Agree with David. But one sure thing is that Postman Pat has really screwed his leadership chances. Asked on live TV yesty whether he could do a better job than Bruin as PM he replied with refreshing honesty: 'No'.
Think what the Tories could do with that in an election campaign. I knew PP was dim, but not that he was that dense.
'Make me leader 'cos I'll be even worse than Gordo' : now there's a slogan to rally the troops. Dave should put the Bolly on ice - the Downing St keys are in his pocket.

David Ossitt

David.

What ever do you mean "People go on about Thatcher"; you should not write the dear lady's name in the same post as the reprobates Milliband and Johnson.

She was the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill a true honest and valiant leader.

Todays leaders are but hollow men by comparison.

john miller

Great articles by Matt Norman and Deborah Orr in the Indy.

It set me up for the day

Nicholas

Something strange is in the air. Labour cabinet are looking smug and pleased with themselves as though they know something we don't. Brown even more smug and pleased with himself, if that is possible.

Delusion, dementia or a really devious plan coming to fruition?

wound-up

As somebody said earlier this week, the only members of the parliamentary labour party with any balls are their women.

Unspeakable cowardice to employ 'anonymous email' tactics against Brown. I imagine Labour supporters are looking for a display of courage, character and leadership from their MP's, not this gutless spineless email nonsense.

What a shower.

David L

reshuffle predictions are always fun and I agree with David at the top - Miliband the elder should resign tonight and take the other responsible members of the Cabinet with him, I am referring to John Hutton, James Purnell, Capt Darling, etc.

MK

These are dangerous times for the Conservatives.

Johnson, if he did get in, would have just about enough capital to get some electoral reform on to the ballot, enough to be a poison pill for the next government.

Unless the results are truly catastrophic, Brown could make it through the weekend unscathed.

Anything less than catastrophic will be interpreted positively after the events of last couple of days.

It's truly a testament to how talentless the cabinet currently is that they can't nobble the guy no matter how low he sinks.

Oscar

I was amused by this description in Paul Routledge's book on Brown of his response to moving home:

"Gordon did not want to go. He sat on the pavement and refused to budge, recollects his mother. He didn't like changes when he was little".

I can just imagine him sitting on the pavement outside No.10 refusing to budge!

Ian C

Vulture - glad you spotted that. I thought so too when I saw it.

The question most Labour MP's will be asking themselves is this:

'Do I want my parachute payments for losing my seat this autumn or next summer?' The answer is enhanced by the expenses situation:

'better getting it now as I can't claim anything on expenses for the next year'.

Autumn Election coming up. Preferably with Brown as leader - clinging on with hanging and chewed finger nails.

Denis Cooper

What Brown needs is something else like the G20, so that he can get fellow world leaders to come here and tell us how wonderful he is, and how lucky we are to have him as Prime Minister.

The Spanish Prime Minister had an article along those lines in the Guardian yesterday, headed:

"Brown has led the way"

"As G20 leader the British prime minister proved his ability to deal with post-crisis policy both globally and in Europe"

But clearly much more than that would be needed.

Another world conference on something or other of major importance, in the UK, widely publicised especially on TV, with Brown being hailed as a hero.

Merkel and Sarkozy might not be quite so willing to oblige as last time; but they need to keep Cameron out of Downing Street until after the Lisbon Treaty has come into force, and so they'll want to do whatever they can in that direction.

Tiberius

"These are dangerous times for the Conservatives".

With respect, MK, that has been the case since 16 September 1992.

Flemingcrag

When the last woman leaves Gordon's boyish club sometimes referred to as the Cabinet there will be no "balls" left to squeeze the next time the nokias are flying.
This re-shuffle is definitely a toughie for Gordon;
You had a special adviser who told you to take away the tax credit on private and company pension funds assuring you there would be no more "Boom & Bust" under New Labour the price of shares would always rise. You acted on this advice and the Worlds up till then best pension schemes became basket cases.
The same adviser told you to take control of the banks away from the Bank of England who had steadied the ship for over 200 years and give the controls to a newly set-up Quango called the FSA. You again acted this advice and every bank in the Country went bankrupt.
Do you now make this previous adviser currently the Minister for Children your new Chancellor of the Exchequer? Tough one to call, eh! Gordon.
Especially when so many in the City called him brilliant, that will be the ones who collected the bonuses.

Henry Rogers

Dennis Cooper asserts that Brown needs something else like the G20. That may be Brown's hope but, realistically, as the G20 made only a slight difference to what the UK electorate told pollsters they were thinking, nothing else along those lines would have much effect now. Each 'Brown Bounce' has been smaller than the last and even the first one didn't inspire enough confidence in Brown for him to do anything useful with it.

GrassyKnollington

As much as we may not wish to admit, Broon is certainly a resolute chap, any lesser (or saner?) man would have packed it in months ago.

I don't think the reshuffle will have a great deal of bearing on his future, replacing one usless lightwight nobody with another is unlikely to improve the overall ability, or perception of ability, of his cabinet.

I'm convinced Brown will see it out until June next year, mainly because it is not in Cameron's interests to continue putting the boot in (see PMQ yestarday), the most he appears willing to do is to insist on an election rather than taking Brown up on policy issues, although Brown struggles to master Cameron here with his perpetual repetition of his "taking decisions, doing the business" spiel. Given the inevitable low turn out in today's elections, it will be difficult to read too much into the result.