The best and the worst ways for all this to end for Labour and the Tories
James Forsyth 7:25pmAs we all await ten o’clock (and there’ll be full coverage on Coffee House if anything kicks off then) and the second editions of the paper to see where the plot stands, it is worth looking at the best and worst conclusions to the Labour leadership crisis for the two main parties:
Worst for Labour, best for the Tories: Brown stays as PM but bottles out of moving Darling. The result: a lame duck PM and a lame duck Chancellor. The Tories would love facing a Chancellor who clearly doesn’t have the confidence of the Prime Minister and a Prime Minister who was too weak to reshuffle as he wanted to.
Best for Labour, worst for the Tories: Brown is forced out as the Cabinet reshuffle collapses around him. Alan Johnson is crowned Labour leader and easily puts together a Cabinet with jobs for Balls and other prominent Brownites as well as returns for some of the talent on the Labour backbenches. The departure of Brown presents Labour with one last chance to reconnect with the electorate.
If we end up with Brown as PM and Balls as Chancellor, I think we’re on the same political trajectory as now: heading for a Labour defeat and a decent Tory majority. If we have the Lame Duck Ministry then we could be heading for a spectacular Tory win.
But if Johnson pulls it off, then the kaleidoscope will have been shaken and no one can be sure how things will look once the pieces have settled. I’d still expect the Tories to win, but there are lots of ways Labour could move to limit the Tory’s advantages. However, Johnson would have to exude competence, especially during any crisis. Having said he is not up to job so many times, it has to be obvious that he is.
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Liz Brown
June 4th, 2009 7:42pm Report this commentWhy all this praise for Johnson - i can't bear to see or listen to him
Additionally, he cnnot be forgiven for caving in to the unions increasing the burden of taxation on we the general public.
I cannot see that he will be any more successful at leading the Liebour party to a GE re-election than the present useless incumbent
David Ossitt
June 4th, 2009 7:43pm Report this commentJames; Gordon is going nowhere.
And so it's your best for Tories worst for Labour theory.
Gordon Brown
June 4th, 2009 7:54pm Report this commentThanks for your help
(to prove authenticity please kindly note lack of punctuation)
dorothy wilson
June 4th, 2009 7:57pm Report this commentFor goodness sake! Johnson is the man who caved into the unions over public sector pensions. He thus landed us with on-going liabilities totalling billions if not trillions. How on earth can he claim to have the credibility to sort out the economy given the mess Brown has landed us in?
Labour must either be desperate, which they probably are, or living in cloud cuckoo land, which they probably are too, to even consider him as leader and PM.
If Brown goes and do Labour elect Johnson the Conservatives should go for his jugular - and har!
Steve.W
June 4th, 2009 8:13pm Report this commentI'm not so sure that getting Postman Pat to take over from Mr McEyebags is all it takes, the Nulabour brand is, like Lada, forever damaged. When was the last time you saw one in a scrap yard, let alone on the road?
Alan Douglas
June 4th, 2009 8:19pm Report this commentHallelujah - I had to go back SIX whole posts to find your usual picture of raddled humanity, also known as the soon-to-be ex-PM.
If this is your new policy, it is a blessing, for which much thanks !
Alan Douglas
Simon
June 4th, 2009 8:20pm Report this commentPerhaps Johnson is engaged in long term expectations management.
By making it clear that he isn't up to the job, if he comes over as being vaguely competent, he can portray himself as a genius!
TrevorsDen
June 4th, 2009 8:37pm Report this commentIf elected will Johnson explain why he signed Browns nomination papers.
Why should Labour rush to another judgement to elect Johnson anyway.
Its hard to see why anybody from the party which let Brown ruin Britain for 12 years will know how to manage the economy.
Brown will not go anyway. Brown cannot admit defeat, does not know how to lose. He cannot comprehend why anyone should stand against him. They are wrong and delusional not HIM.
He will not go but just rationalise the new situation.
Hawkeye
June 4th, 2009 8:46pm Report this commentJohnson is a liabilty. He has said that he could not do the PM's jobs at least twice now and, let's face it, he'll be the Unions' man in Downing St. The TUC will be running the country through Postman Proxy.
There is plenty of material for the tories to work with.
DownTrodden
June 4th, 2009 8:48pm Report this commentWhere's the best for the country scenario?
If Labour are left in power for much longer what will the next lot inherit?
Postman Pat
June 4th, 2009 8:59pm Report this commentMind my cat (i carnt rite two well neither)
Ernie Bevin
June 4th, 2009 9:05pm Report this commentThere's no way having Darling as Chancellor could give the Tories a better victory than having Balls in the post. The 'nuclear option' would inevitably lead to the deposing of Brown.
Jeremy
June 4th, 2009 9:28pm Report this commentCan't fault you on this one, James. Clearly the longer Brown remains PM and the longer he seeks to hold back the waves (i.e. a General Election) the better for the Tories - because then there will be plenty of extended and exposed "soft underbelly" to repeatedly shoot the missiles into.
That Mr Johnson is a very disingenuous fellow - unlike Gordon Brown, who has always managed to convince himself that he is the Brain of Britain. Johnson could well be the more cunning and less self-deluding of the two.
But having said that, I thought Johnson's slighting remark about Martin Bell - that he "didn't do much" when in Parliament - showed a meanness of mind and spirit and a Michael Martin-like willingness to implicitly defend "spanish practices" in Parliament which could well count against him in the longer run.
At least Mr Bell - so far as I am aware - did not use his time in Parliament to amass a fortune by property speculation carried on through the expenses system.
David Barnett
June 4th, 2009 9:32pm Report this commentCometh the hour cometh the postman.
Sir Graphus
June 4th, 2009 9:46pm Report this commentThe 3rd way in British politics is for the Tories to take a bit of a beating because of the general antipathy towards all the main troughing parties.
This gives Brown a bit of wriggle room. Old doormat Darling decides his ministerial salary is worth being humiliated over, so accepts a cabinet demotion, maybe even the Home Office, so Brown can move Balls into no 11.
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