Independent poll: Johnson would deny the Tories an outright majority

James Burdett

All the poll is saying is that Johnson would get slightly less share of the vote than Foot wheras Brown is going to get considerably less than Foot did in 1983. Plus it is ComRes who aren't exactly the best pollster around.

Cottage Pie

So a massive 26 percent of the electorate would vote Labour with Alan Johnson as leader. David Cameron really should be quaking in his boots.

Tim B

I suspect that nobody has the faintest idea who he is, but they've heard he's a nice guy, popular and good communicator. I am sure many people couldn't identify him in a line up of photos. Didn't he give in to the public sector unions on retirement ages? Not a good sign.

The poll takes no account of how the switch from Brown to Johnson would happen. If there was a contested election (as there surely would have to be - we've seen the dangers of coronation already), how would it look if labour took 3 months off to do this?

Remember how everyone thought Brown would be better than Blair before he took over?

This is apparently a COMRES poll. Look a their last couple of polls - way off the mark.

All is not always as it appears.

George Laird

Dear All

Is it not nice to know that New Labour has been split into two parties?

The 'War on Brown' has started.

Viva La Resistance.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

Thrasymachus

Pull the other one!

Dirty Euro

Well he in the government so surely her would deny them a majority now.

Graeme Stewart

And what Labour party would Johnson be able to sell us? The only way Labour can garner support is by banging the "its safe in our hands" drum, by tweaking education and health, without actually having to spend any money on them, but at the same time avoiding reducing the bloated, inefficient public sectors they have created over the past 11 years. GB should be allowed to have his day at the polls... we could all do with a good laugh in these dark times

Susan Hill

I just don`t believe that. It isn`t only Brown the country is sick of it`s the lot of them and the new unelected members do not impress. Nobody`s fooled and Joh nson would be promoted way beyond his abilities.

Dirty Euro

I suppose this will be interesting to see the result. I wait a few weeks and then see if this is still the case.

Andrew Zalotocky

I'm not convinced that Johnson would do all that much better. If he became PM without a general election he would struggle to convince the public that he had any mandate to govern. It would probably be seen as yet another example of the arrogance and presumption of the political class, and of Labour's contempt for the public. He would soon become the focus of public anger.

If Johnson became party leader and immediately called a general election he would benefit from not being Gordon Brown, but there would still be a great deal of hostility towards Labour. It would be extremely difficult for Johnson to convince people that Labour suddenly had the right policies and personnel to fix all the problems that Labour created in the first place.

MartSharm

Even better. The Labour party have shown their true character today. Unable to choose country over party, and unable to choose party over despised leader. It doesn't matter how many meetings are held behind closed doors, Brown is widely despised and this will never change. If shockingly bad voting figures in black and white cannot persuade Labour to ditch Brown, nothing will.

My main concern is for the state of the country in the mean time. The word "paralysis" sums it up best for me. Every country needs to rally around a leader, for better or for worse, and we certainly do not have one of those. (Queen excepted of course.)

Steve.W

So why don't Nulabour call an election and take a chance?

egh

So why am I supposed to care about the Labour Party, its sufferings, or even its death throes?

I am sick to death of hearing about them, and my country is sick to death because of them.

Are we supposed to be enjoying this, or something? The play is ended. Go.

Cardinal Richelieu's mole

Per Tim B above, "I suspect that nobody has the faintest idea who he is, but they've heard he's a nice guy, popular and good communicator". Agreed -but also consider the possibility that people think it means Boris! ;-)

Nicholas

"I am sick to death of hearing about them, and my country is sick to death because of them."

Shabash!

John Moss

I wonder if a better way of "polling" on this would be to ask 100 leading investors in Government bonds whether they would buy UK govt debt with Brown, Cameron, Clegg, or, anybody from Labour, but Brown, as PM?

Given the FT reported that the bond market was jittery over Brown going, as it might reduce a Cameron government's ability to take the necessary steps to restore the public finances, it might be an intersting question.

Brown is leading us to a BBB rating. Johnson's roll over on public pensions suggests he will lead us there as well. Balls would just open the floodgates of public spending and leave us with junk-bond status, raising every mortgage and business loan to unsupportable levels.

It is perverse, but it is the Conservatives succesful management of the aftermath of the Lawson bust and the escape from the ERM which gives them the credibility in the markets to sort out Brown's bust.

seb

I bet many Labour supporters are this morning filled with renewed hope at the Zimbabwean prospect, however faint, of Johnson thrashing Cameron in a 26%-36% rout at the polls. Go, Alan, Go!

David Ossitt

Does Dirty Euro write his/her posts in some form of code?

boulay

the thing that scares me however is that even when it looks like the conservatives have a massive advantage in the popular vote it still seems to translate into only a small advantage in numbers of seats.

it seems like a race where the tories have to run 150 metres whilst labour run 100.

still not clear why there is an inbuilt advantage to labour and would love someone to explain how and why.

anyway the worry is that the conservatives could have a massive majority of votes and still not be able to operate a majority.

perhaps they will need to give an absolute guarantee for a referendum on the lisbon treaty (scary article in telegraph today on how Europe are going to fight the tories over lisbon - of course they do not want the will of the people to be consulted)and demand english mps only voting on english matters which would dilute any lack of majority on at least some parts of government.

John

More deckchair rearrangement while the Titanic is going down, down, down?
The country is sick of Labour. OK, they are even sicker of McBroon, the worst PM this country has had in 200 years, but that's only like comparing the relative virulence of two different fatal diseases. The electorate hate and despise the lot of them. Can't these people read voting figures, for crying out loud?
Just go, you have caused enough damage!

oldtimer

I see that, looked at objectively, this poll has been rubbished by Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report.

But it may have the effect of unsettling those Labour MPs who have retreated to the comfort zone of the Westminster ivory tower.

Andy Leeds

Ok he would make a slight difference, but from the comments I hear people really loath and hate the Labour Party as many did the Conservatives in the 1990s. The electoral system will mitigate this for Labour rather than doing the opposite as in the case of the Tories, but the people have had enough. So the message to Labour is simple: if you want to save the party go for a general election very very soon.

JONNY

This poll is not worth the newspaper it is printed on.

dorothy wilson

If Johnson became Labour leader he might make a slight difference initially. But that wouldn't last long.

For starters he is Old Labour whilst most of the current plotters are NuLabour so there is inherent conflict there.

Also, he is totally vulnerable on the economy. After all, he caved into the unions over the public sector pensions. With him in charge we would soon be back to the 1970s situation - with the unions' tail wagging Labour's dog.

In the current economic climate that's the last thing we want. The Conservatives need to point that out - and hard!

Mr Green

#Boulay...

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but it is all to do with boundaries and seats.

To win a seat you need to poll more votes then your rivals within a pre-determined boundary. The party with most seats wins.

To swing the odds in your favour you can manipulate the boundaries so that you scoop up a large number of opposition voters into one local-area and therefore no matter how many of them vote, they will only win a maximum of one seat.

If you repeat this process over an over again, you can have a situation where Labour's small number of votes will win the same number of seats as the oppositions' large number of votes.

PSJ

Doesn't anybody remember the disastrous record that hypothetical polls turned out to have when Brown took over from Blair? Face it, the only way to find out what the opinion polls will do if Johnson replaces Brown is to get on with it.