Osborne sets out the "risky choice" that is voting Labour
Peter Hoskin 5:59pm
So what's the story, George Osborne? Reading his speech today, there's plenty of sturdy talk about lowering the national debt burden and encouraging saving - but a few gaps that need filling if the policy is to live up to the rhetoric. Osborne seems to recognise this himself: for every reference to the Office of Budget Responsility or the IHT cut, there's an admission that the Tories will release more detailed proposals "in due course".
In which light, the most striking passage reads thus (my emphasis):
Indeed, the point that re-electing Labour is "risky" is repeated a couple of lines later, when Osborne says: "Re-electing the incumbent government is now the risky choice." To my mind, this seems like a crucial new attack, even if one that's been implicit in Tory speeches before now. In effect, it's a subversion of Brown's "no time for a novice" soundbite, with its own implication that a steady hand is needed at the tiller. More clearly than ever, the Tory response is now that they are that steady hand - Labour aren't."The markets are saying that Britain needs a Conservative Government with a working majority if we want to avoid the costs to the British people of the country's debts rising.
In other words re-electing this Labour Government is a risky choice for the British people and the British economy."
To some extent, this exemplifies an explicit split in the Tory dynamic. One one side, the economy, you've got them pushing their "stability" - and, well, conservative - credentials. Whereas in other areas - parliamentary reform, say - they're still striking a tone of Obamaesque Change. It's a fascinating balance, and one which Brown - who, of course, presided over the both the economic and political crises - may struggle to upset.
Previous
David Ossitt
June 9th, 2009 7:02pm Report this commentThere will not be a labour party to re-elect; if they use the next eleven months to good effect.
oldtimer
June 9th, 2009 7:24pm Report this commentI agree with the analysis and direction of travel set out by George Osborne. It makes much more sense than Brown`s mantra of ever more public spending.
He could easily have prayed in aid Martin Wolf`s latest blog over at the FT which points out that the UK government is planning to spend £4 for every £3 it raises - clearly unsustainable.
Another FT blogger, Willem Buiter, also provides space for a wordy guest Brazilian economist to point out fundamental shifts in the balance of power between countries like the USA/UK and emerging markets, and that excessive debt levels in the former are likely to result in protracted stagnation in the USA/UK.
If Brown is hoping for green shoots to win him the next election then he can expect not dreams but nightmares as UK unemployment continues to rise.
drakes drum
June 9th, 2009 7:26pm Report this commentNot sure, Mr Ossitt!
Economy upturns, Brown potrays himself as the great saviour of the Country -with the BBC and SKY trumpeting the nonsense. calls a quick election- Brown wins!
Gawd forbid!
THX1138
June 9th, 2009 7:30pm Report this comment"The markets are saying that Britain needs a Conservative Government"
No they aren't the FTSE is up 700 points since the beginning of March and the GBP has strengthened considerably against the USD and the Euro in the same period. As market are always priced forward you could argue that UK markets are anticipating a Tory government. I for one don't buy that story as stock markets all over the world are up I think that markets think that the Obama stimulus package is working and they simply don't want to go down.
I don't believe that markets care that much who is in government in the UK anymore and what is happening in US and Asian markets and economies have a much bigger effect on the FTSE than any tinkering around the edges that Little Osborne is going to do.
Hysteria
June 9th, 2009 7:41pm Report this commentRisky?
Risky?.....
I hope they are using a stronger word behind closed doors....
The Bellman
June 9th, 2009 7:55pm Report this commentAside from the details of the ways and means, this speech sounds like the expression of a simple, grown-up and responsible idea. This of course is no guarantee that the Labour-voting debt monkeys will accept it as an alternative to the infantile instant gratification/defered payment they have now been conditioned to demand.
It has the virtue also of being an idea that has more logic than 'spending our way out of debt', to say nothing of shrieking hysterically about 'Tory cuts' while concealing cuts of your own in the footnotes.
ClickMonster
June 9th, 2009 8:02pm Report this commentre: drakes drum
Should that happen, the markets will abandon the pound etc. and the UK is in real trouble.
As an ex-pat who has to buy sterling occasionaly, I watch with interest ...
Verity
June 9th, 2009 8:22pm Report this commentDrake's Drum - Even if Brown had a good record, he does not have the character or the personality necessary to win elections - either for the board of a golf club or the head of government of a country. In his arrogance, he also doesn't think he needs guile or an understanding of human nature. He thinks all he has to do is exist.
I believe the only elections he's ever won are in the tiny area of Scotland in which is family is so important that the vote comes with tied cottages. (I may be exaggerating, but you get the idea.) He has never had to persuade strangers of his worth and has never had to persuade anyone at all that he was interested in them or gave a stuff about their wellbeing.
Sir Graphus
June 9th, 2009 8:30pm Report this commentI thought Osborne did pretty well in the face of some pretty hostile questioning on Today a couple of days ago.
Suki
June 9th, 2009 8:31pm Report this commentTHX1138, you know nothing whatsoever about markets. Since when does the British government go to raise money from the stock market?
Do tell us all, since you're such an expert.
It is the international bond markets the British government relies on and they certainly do not like the state of Britain's debt.
Still, please fill us in on how the British government raises money on the stock market. It will be a revelation to us all.
Ian Walker
June 9th, 2009 8:59pm Report this commentNot strictly true, Verity, he once tried to convince the good people of Edinburgh that he was a better candidate than Michael Ancram.
They didn't believe him
dearieme
June 9th, 2009 9:00pm Report this commentThe recent election that Labour won in Brown's corner of Scotland may be thought to have involved voting fraud; that is, if our thinker is disposed to draw conclusions from the mysterious disappearance of the voting slips afterwards.
Billericay Dave
June 9th, 2009 9:04pm Report this commentOn the voting thing the BBC have reported that Gordo is looking at the AV system of voting !! and a tory spokes person has come out with this is just a synical labour ploy to keep seats. He really thinks the voting public are stupid and we wont see through such an idea so obviously thought up to keep HIM in power.
Alison
June 9th, 2009 9:06pm Report this commentTHX1138, while I welcome you spending more time trying to make yourself interesting, please don't lecture anyone on economics.
You talk of the stock market but this is not where the government is going to borrow all the monney for this huge national debt. That will have to be borrowed on the bond market - that is what is causing jitters in the City.
Athesius the Facilitator
June 9th, 2009 9:22pm Report this commentPeter-George Osborne can make as many speeches as he likes but only people like you are listening to them and then analysing them. Unless the Tory's start showing a bit of "spunk" they will get swallowed up by the do nothing party tag and once that is in the mind of the voter they will have struggle. He can make all the speeches he likes it won't make any difference. And for goodness sake if there is any Tory high rollers reading this please tell David Cameron to keep Philip Hammond and Eric Pickles off the television and get a few "fronters" who have a bit of spark in them. I am a die hard Tory voter but them pair are turning even me off.
drakes drum
June 9th, 2009 9:34pm Report this commentVerity. Apparantly our beloved leader, tomorrow, in his How to Fix The Constitution for Labour- will announce a referendum on the AV system of PR. So we will have the BNP and UKIP and all the other small parties in parliament. BUT it will mean that Cameron could never win a majority.
So, dear Verity, you will be quite happy.
As for me. PR will just take this country into the Italian league of general elections every eighteen months.
Brown is out to cripple this country once and for all.
He denies us one on the Lisbon Treaty now this. What a prize hypocrite!
Verity
June 9th, 2009 9:36pm Report this commentIan Walker, thanks for the correction and very comical it was! I am genuinely surprised he managed to suppress his sense of superiority to ask for anyone's vote though. I'm not surprised, on the other hand, that he lost.
Edward
June 9th, 2009 9:42pm Report this commentOsborne is stating the obvious with his use of the words "voting Labour" and "risky choice" within the same sentence.
Concerning the "...few gaps that need filling if the policy is to live up to the rhetoric..."
If the Tories would be kind enough to indulge in some straight talking concerning a specific post-GE Conservative government strategy, in words of less than (say) four syllables, the electorate might then be able to make their own accurate risk assessment, prior to any such election.
Now that the Labour government is discredited to the extent it is, any argument for keeping Tory counsel has perhaps had its day.
If the electorate are not in possession of all the "facts", such as they will be presented, how can they be expected to vote responsibly, while minimizing risk, when the time comes ?
Election manifesto is not required at this point.
But some clarification, for the time being, on intended policy regarding the Lisbon Treaty, for example, might assist risk assessment.
Jan Phillips
June 9th, 2009 9:47pm Report this commentMakes me nervous when ministers talk about 'a bold programme of reform'. The current 'non bold' policies have nearly bankrupt the country. What's going to happen when the 'bold' policies happen ?
Thomas Cussans
June 9th, 2009 9:55pm Report this commentIt's actually a cunning and, potentially, hugely effective line: that the Gordon McManiac, while thumping the table and jumping up and down, spittle flecking his lips, as he rants abut his global-saving economic magnificence, is taking a series of giant-sized risks.
I like this.
As a counter-point to the Gordo's clapped out but still just about effective Labour-investment-vs-Tory-cuts line, the similarly simple notion that in fact McCrazed is actually staking the country's future on a quadruple-or-quits throw of the dice has a clear resonance.
That said, as there is now nothing to choose between McNutter and Robert Mugabe, any such precise political calculation may well be irrelevant once we are all reduced to living in dustbin bags and scavenging for rats (on good days, that is).
THX1138
June 9th, 2009 9:57pm Report this commentSuki & Alison aren't you rude!
What evidence do you have that UK plc is failing to raise money on the bond markets and where are these "jitters" being played out? Certainly not on the FTSE or the much vaunted collapse in Sterling and UK bond yields are coming back to normal parameters as capital is flowing away from bonds back into stocks as panic subsides.
I'm not defending Brown I'm just not convinced that Osborne taking over in the treasury is going to make much difference to market sentiment and where else are the Asians Governments and banks going to invest the money of it's millions of savers.
Suki FYI I'm actually quite a big PA investor and worked as a market maker for a few years.
Alf Tupper C.R.O.F.
June 9th, 2009 10:01pm Report this comment'The Markets', and all those therein, have for the past 25 years been roved so far up their own arse, that they've forgotten they're merely a part of what we are and do, not the core of human existence.
Until we return to the Planet Earth reality that to survive and prosper, we need to make and sell real products - not some stitched together package of someone's fallible debt - we will carry on our slide into pauper status.
mbj
June 9th, 2009 10:03pm Report this comment"The Office of Budget Responsibility" ???? !!!! ????
[Presumably some euro-bureau]
Marian C
June 9th, 2009 10:58pm Report this commentSuki & Alison; Well said
TGF UKIP
June 9th, 2009 11:06pm Report this commentGlad to see you round again and entertaining us so THX 1138 after making yourself scarce for a while.
I had assumed you were busying yourself with an application to become a parliamentary candidate for Dave's SocDem Green Party. If my assumption is correct, I'm sure you'll be a shoo in, you tick so many of Dave and the Mekon's boxes.
A self-described N London liberal, obviously no older than early thirties, an avowed admirer of Blair, an habitual Labour voter who may just vote for Dave next time because you consider him one of your own and of course you are not just green but a headbanging proselytizing Green. You really are nearly perfect for Dave's replacement Tory Party. Of course, if you happen to be gay or of an ethnic minority, or better still both, you would be perfection personified especially if you worked for a "charity" or elsewhere in the public or "third sector."
Im sure the whole Coffee House will look forward to watching your progress and seeing where your parachute drops. Somewhere like Alan B'Stards old hunting ground should be perfect to demonstrate that the Conservative Party isn't really the Conservative Party any more.
TGF UKIP
June 9th, 2009 11:15pm Report this commentDoesn't quite have the simplicity or staying power though of "the do-nothing Tories" does it?
Quite apart from which don't most people regularly take risks of one dimension or another in their lives. And aren't we all supposed to be rebelling against this "risk averse" society?
This just reinforces just how absolutely crap Dave's lot are at political propaganda. And who takes a blind bit of notice of Boy George anyway?
Verity
June 9th, 2009 11:22pm Report this commentTHX - Yeah. Right. And I am Marie of Roumania.
KB
June 9th, 2009 11:39pm Report this commentThere are many good reasons for wanting a Tory government, and market sentiment is one of them, but doesn't anyone think pointing this out in 2009 is a bit, er, impolitic?
Verity
June 10th, 2009 4:10am Report this commentDrake's Drum writes: "BUT it will mean that Cameron could never win a majority.
"So, dear Verity, you will be quite happy."
Let's not get above ourselves, sweets. I am not "dear Verity" to you.
Would I be "happy", to use a stupid term, if David Cameron were never to be Prime Minister?
No. I'd be relieved.
drakes drum
June 10th, 2009 7:13am Report this commentMy dear Verity,
How sweet of you to refer to me as 'sweets' I was last addressed so, some sixty our years ago!
Thank you.
Colin
June 10th, 2009 7:38am Report this commentIf the government gets its way, by changing the voting system, we might be stuck with a labour government.
The tories haven't won it yet.
In my view, Cameron or the electorate need to force an election ASAP. Things have changed dramatically in the last week or so. I'm no longer of the opinion that the longer this goes, the worse it will get for brown and his henchmen. Quite the opposite, I fear...
C O Jones
June 10th, 2009 8:03am Report this commentPete,
The ad hominem attacks on this board are well below the standard should be required.
TomTom
June 10th, 2009 8:09am Report this commentOsborne is a great reason NOT to vote Conservative. He is lightweight and spends his time in negative campaigning against Labour.
Labour has support ranging from 8% - 16% and the Conservatives can manage 27%...hardly a ringing endorsement. There is little faith that the Conservatives can improve matters before they are ejected in 2015 and the EU Commission sends in a Turnaround Team to ensure bread and water are distributed.
Osborne could be apologising for a disastrous Conservative Administration within months...start to focus on that task rather than kicking dead dogs
Paul B
June 10th, 2009 9:21am Report this commentI cannot see how the present executive can force through a bill to change the voting system. It just doesn`t have the parliamentary time. Queens speech November. Election no later than the end of May- cannot be done. Its just a ploy on Browns behalf to try to pick up a few disaffected Liberal voters and those who squeal about fairness.
Incidentally, if Labour did poorly last week in the elections, how about the Libs, "its all gone quiet over there" Me thinks they need a rethink.
Tomtom, give mr lightweight Osbourne anyday, in preference to overweight, deadweight Brown.
C O Jones
June 10th, 2009 9:44am Report this commentThanks for 'THAT' Pete...
or rather not!
Didn't get one past you yesterday for some reason.
Tiberius
June 10th, 2009 11:43am Report this commentdrakes drum: leave my bird alone!
;)
TGF UKIP
June 10th, 2009 3:10pm Report this commentYou got no chance, Tiberius. It's her little "Numberplate" I think our Verity's got a thing for.
Verity
June 10th, 2009 3:59pm Report this commentC O Jones, we have to work with what we have. If the scalpel is too sharp, the sensitive souls in Queen Street won't run the comment. It's a fine line.
TGI UKIP, your perceptions are normally more acute.
THX1138
June 10th, 2009 9:25pm Report this commentTGF how sweet, did you think that you had lost your librul Aunt Sally? I know for some that their daily pop at "Numberplate" is the highlight of the day the abuse though is more bloody great mallet than "scalpel" I have to say.
No I'm still here, I've just been splitting my time and having fun with my new friends over on Conservative Cabbie and just like the Coffee House I'm not doing much influencing there either but the ambient level of abuse is much lower.
You're right about my politics except the green stuff I fly far too much but I can deliver on some of your prejudices I do drive a Prius the car of choice for well heeled N LDN Librul.
As for the rest you're well wide of the mark I'm white middle class and in my mid Forties although I do run a 43.30 10K and a 1.40 half marathon which is pretty quick. Sorry no charity or third sector work either after working in the city and then in B2B marketing I now run my own small marketing agency and Mrs THX is a big wig in the librul meeja establishment but she's not so convinced about Dave although Sam is very nice I understand. She still likes Gordo due to going round for dinner a No 11 a couple of times, Gordo is very friendly and witty face to face by all accounts I'm not buying but Mrs THX isn't budging .
I'm not thinking about joining Dave's New Model Tories In Parliament either we really couldn't afford to live on the measly 65K salary it's no wonder MP's fiddled their expenses how else could they afford to live :)
As for whether "Conservative Party isn't really the Conservative Party any more." Well it maybe not yours anymore but thanks to Dave it is my Party now and I put my first ever cross next to a Conservative name last week and you know what it felt good..
TGF UKIP
June 10th, 2009 11:38pm Report this commentWell thanks for that THX 1138, especially the bit about the automobile badge of your species - mind you I would have assumed given your caricature self-description you went by bike everywhere.
Thanks especially though for your unqualified espousal of Dave and his party. So long as Coffee Housers bear in mind that "By their friends shall ye know them" you have made my task of illuminating just what Dave and the Mekon are up to in their usurpation of the Tory Party and its transformation into the SocDem Green Party so very much easier. Thanks!
N Molesworth the edler
June 11th, 2009 9:14pm Report this commentTnkx - you are a very rich and sofisticatid perçon, as any fule kno!
Alf Tupper C.R.O.F.
June 11th, 2009 9:29pm Report this commentTHX
What is your favourite meal?
THX1138
June 12th, 2009 8:58pm Report this commentAlf Since you asked:
Dinner at Locanda Locatelli
No squirrel on the menu yet :)
N Molesworth, the Edler
June 13th, 2009 3:12am Report this commentAlf Tupper, don't be crool.
OTOH, why not? Sometimes a folk wants to relax with easy targets, as any fule no' ...
Yors sinceerely,
N Moleswroth the Edler
THX1138
June 13th, 2009 10:21am Report this commentMr Molesworth you may consider me an easy target but a pound to a penny I wouldn't swap my life for yours.
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