The sword still hangs above Gordon Brown's head
Peter Hoskin 11:26am
And so it continues. Gordon Brown may have prevented his own immediate demise over the past ten days, but the idea that he'll be toppled before the next election still won't go away.
The most intriguing of all the leadership stories in the Sundays is the News of the World's scoop that Ed Balls is, allegedly, planning to wield the knife should Brown fail to substantially improve Labour's position over the next few months. Balls - so long Brown's consigliere, but now perhaps losing status to the rejuvenated Peter Mandelson - is said to have announced the plan after the PLP meeting last Monday.
Whether there's anything to it, I'm not sure. And it's certainly getting hard to keep up with all the briefing, counter-briefing and other assorted speculation. But the NotW story does rather shine a light on the Damoclean sword hanging above Brown's head.
For starters, the Dear Leader will find it very difficult to force any positive message into a news agenda more concered with his beleagured premiership; which, in turn, limits his ability to stage a "fightback"; which, in turn, makes it more likely that the party will finally choose to ditch him.
And then there's the sense that, despite the reshuffle and the farcical "unity" of that PLP meeting, Brown is now but one blow away from political death. That blow could come from Balls, as the NotW suggests; it could come from Miliband; or it could come from the massed ranks of the Labour backbenches. Either way, the threat is there - and it must be encouraging more bitten fingernails on Downing Street than usual.
All the while, there'll be plenty of provocation for the plotters, in the form of by-election results and the regular tick-tock of opinion poll findings. Indeed, a poll in this morning's Sunday Times suggests that 51 percent of voters agree that “Gordon Brown’s continued presence as Prime Minister is damaging the country”, against 27 percent who disagree. While 60 percent think that Brown should step down before the next election. Yep, you can almost hear the knives being sharpened already...
(Painting: Sword of Damocles, by Richard Westall, 1812)



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Simon Stephenson
June 14th, 2009 11:48am Report this commentYou don't think that perhaps Labour has already decided that Brown must go, but they are giving themselves enough time to prepare the ground to give his replacement as much of a flying start as is possible?
This is absolutely standard practice in industry and commerce - every single piece of potentially bad news, plus a lot more ficticious ones besides, are "transparently" brought out into the open at the time of the incumbent's demise, with the result that the "new broom" couldn't fail to have some (apparent) initial success even if he had the brains of a donkey.
AEH
June 14th, 2009 12:09pm Report this commentWinston Churchill wrote "The British people can face peril or misfortune with fortitude and buoyancy, but they bitterly resent being deceived or finding that those responsible for their affairs are themselves dwelling in a fool's paradise".
colin
June 14th, 2009 12:13pm Report this commentAlthough I still think it highly unlikely he'll be forced from office before a general election, the only way the PLP will force him out is, if there's enough Labour backbenchers with unassailable majorities willing to band together.
Based on events of the last two weeks, it's clear that the basic instinct of your average regime henchman is for self preservation, not preserving the national interest. I reckon there are fewer that 175 Labour MPs with sears that could no be considered safe.
Has anyone else done the arithmetic on this?
Fred
June 14th, 2009 12:48pm Report this commentThe "one blow" idea is delusion. It covers up the cowardice of the Labour MPs who simply repeat "we are giving you one more chance - we mean it this time". But they never do.
John Page
June 14th, 2009 1:20pm Report this commentIsn't Balls one of the few people whose assurances on state spending would be less believable than Brown's?
Isn't this like Beckett standing for Speaker?
Sir Graphus
June 14th, 2009 1:36pm Report this commentBalls is the protege who has risen and will fall with his master unless he can emerge from his shadow.
Looking at it a different way, and assuming for a moment that Mr Balls isn't a particularly nice or loyal bloke; Brown is simply of no use to him anymore.
Andy Pandy
June 14th, 2009 3:21pm Report this commentI am reminded of a comment made in an earlier piece. It has never been Gorden's practice to stand for election. So my prediction is that it will not be the the Labour party that get's rid him, nor indeed the electorate but he himself will step down. My guess that this will be at around March 2010. In fact I might even put money on it.
Oscar
June 14th, 2009 4:52pm Report this commentSimon Stephenson - this is the view I came to after reading today's ST article about Mandelson's empire. It struck me that Brown was in effect removed from power last week. Mandy is our de facto caretaker PM preparing for an orderly sacking of Brown in the Autumn and high profile leadership election. This is the only real way to make sense of Mandelson and Miliband's 'unhelpful' intervention yesterday. The ST article is absolutely damning. It basically asserts that Brown is now a puppet leader with Mandelson pulling all the strings.
Rhoda Klapp
June 14th, 2009 5:00pm Report this commentIt's been running around my head that I don't really need to write a different post every time. I could just prepare a little phrase to paste in whenever I feel the need. It would read "They still don't get it, do they?"
They still don't get that we all haven't 'moved on' from expenses. Or immigration, or the EU. We have been, and continue to be, let down by our political class. We don't want the new agenda before those things are resolved.
Michael
June 14th, 2009 5:23pm Report this commentAndy Pandy,I am with you. Gordon does not do elections.I think he will arrange a job with the IMF before resigning before the next election. I am sure he is beavering away at it as we speak.
Ben
June 14th, 2009 6:47pm Report this commentMandy is waiting for the Irish referendum on the European Constitution and then the ratification of the Constitution. Brown will then fall at Mandy's instigation and it will be too late for the in coming Tory government to call a referendum.
That is why Mandy is talking about another plan to oust Brown later in the year.
The question is where do Mandy's allegiances lie - The Labour Party, the UK or the EU?
Edward
June 14th, 2009 6:57pm Report this commentRhoda Klapp 5:00pm
Agreed.
And I don't want expenses, immigration or EU "resolved" by this corrupt discredited devalued untrustworthy and dangerous Parliament.
Why allow these Luddites to tinker with the machinery they've trashed and/or given away ?
Bluebottle
June 14th, 2009 7:19pm Report this commentAndy Pandy & Michael, I've commented several times in the past that Brown is terrified of elections and won't face one he thinks he will lose. My guess is that he will stand down through "ill health", three months before an election is due if not at the party conference.
Oscar
June 14th, 2009 8:12pm Report this commentInteresting comments on the NoW article. They all want Brown to go NOW. He has no mandate - yet we are being forced to act as bystanders at a pernicious political charade. The mood of ordinary, non-political class people is loud and plain in those comments. If Brown really was listening he would quit tomorrow.
Simon Stephenson
June 14th, 2009 9:48pm Report this commentMichael
"Gordon does not do elections.I think he will arrange a job with the IMF before resigning before the next election."
But his ONLY skill is in political manoeuvring. He knows barely enough about economics to con people into thinking he's an expert.
Maybe the IMF have an opening for a people-hating enforcer of car-park etiquette, or some other such position complementary to the talents of the biggest little Hitler in the western world. I can't see what other use they'd have for him.
Although Blair as Middle-East peace envoy took some believing too.
Edward
June 14th, 2009 10:45pm Report this commentOscar 8:12pm
I would agree, but it's not up to Brown.
It's generally recognized that Lord Mandelson is now our Prime Minister.
Brown waste is piling up
June 15th, 2009 1:43am Report this commentNumber of Not in My Name drones who marched against the removal of a mass murdering dictator who threatened global stability - 1 million.
Number of people who marched against an unelected, undemocratic, dangerously incompetent Prime Minister who is putting us into debt that will keep us in penury for a generation while surrounding himself with other unelected parasites who are milking the system in good style, go Glenys go! - er, none.
david smith
June 15th, 2009 4:12pm Report this commentsurely any fule knows that Balls would be the last one to stick the knife in. Elicited one of the strongest denials ever. Never mind! all good copy!
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