Can Gordon recover?
James Forsyth 11:42am
With Labour down to 31% in the polls, talk has already started about whether the Brown premiership is salvageable or not. It is premature, if tempting, to declare that it is game over for Brown. This morning’s poll shows the Tories have yet to take advantage of the government’s plight and Labour are still a fairly united party unlike the post Black Wednesday Tories. As Martin Kettle writes, “Labour is united, albeit united at the moment in its misery. There is no equivalent of the self-destructive mood of the past.”
There is, though, a feeling that Brown isn’t quite good enough. Maybe, we have all been spoiled by Tony Blair—who was, whatever you thought of him, an extremely able politician—but Brown has shown himself unable to recover momentum once lost. Matthew Parris notes in his column today how the Prime Minister seems to attract trouble while Blair repelled it.
Parris makes a case for writing Brown off now. He ponders how the end game might begin: "I think somebody is going to resign. Maybe somebody quite big. Sooner or later a figure important to Mr Brown's credibility or authority will decide they've had enough and quit. This is as likely to be in a fit of pique as a mood of calculation.
Admiral Lord West, the PM's new big-tent security adviser, must have been tempted to walk out when carpeted and humiliated by Mr Brown last week. Mr Miliband must have had his red-mist moment when his speech was unspoken before he had spoken it. Lords Malloch-Brown and (Digby) Jones cannot surely stay the course for ever. The Governor of the Bank of England must have known private rage recently, as Brownite dweebs tried to undermine him.
This has all been within a few weeks. Can the PM get away with sheer bad manners indefinitely - especially if his stock falls farther, his inner circle narrows and the resources of the protection racket he runs begin to fail? So I'll nail my colours to the mast. Mr Brown could become the Steve McClaren of British politics. Something is going to happen, something quite nasty.” Only time will tell if Parris is right but it does seems inconceivable that things can go on as they are without someone confronting the Prime Minister. One warning sign for Labour is that there is now arguably more talent on the back benches—think John Reid, Charles Clarke, Alan Milburn, Stephen Byers, Jon Cruddas, David Blunkett—than in the cabinet.
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Comments
David Lindsay
November 24th, 2007 12:55pmApart from Cruddas, this list of "talents" is in fact a list of the Undead. How many of these people will even contest the next Election? Still, there will no doubt be a byelection soon enough, which the allegedly super-popular Tories will win with a massively reduced majority if it is in a Tory seat in the South East (where they already hold most of the seats anyway), but lose spectacularly if it is anywhere else at all (where they have to win seats), probably dropping to third or even fourth place, and quite conceivably losing their deposit. So, who will go first? Brown, or Cameron? Could they both be gone by Easter?
Bruce
November 24th, 2007 1:52pmBlunkett? Byers? Talent? Oh, come on!
Tiberius
November 24th, 2007 4:48pmDuring the last months of Blair's premiership, I answered a survey, one of whose questions was, "who do you think is the biggest threat to the Tories?" Some of the names James suggests were of course on the list - my answer then was the same as it is now: Alan Milburn.
Peter Fetherston
November 24th, 2007 5:03pm"John Reid, Charles Clarke, Alan Milburn, Stephen Byers, Jon Cruddas, David Blunkett—" That's not my definition of talent!
TGF UKIP
November 24th, 2007 5:34pmBefore the Tories get carried away they should separate out the Labour position from the Brown problem. I've long believed that all the "psychological flaws" would render Brown unable to cope with the the goldfish bowl life and the politically unique level of stress that comes with No.10. It should be interesting to see whether the first cracks are physical or mental. However, while Gordon may be long gone by the time of a 2010 election, the Tories should be anything but smug about their current position. Indeed, if I was a Labour supporter, I would be feeling quietly pleased that after all that gone on over the past two months, my party was still polling in the thirties while the Tories seem only to be able to touch but not hold the forties. The public may not be currently too enamoured with Real Labour but it's clearly none too fussed about Blue Labour either. But there again there's no good reasons why it should be, is there?
Trumpeter Lanfried
November 24th, 2007 7:38pmYou can flog the other ranks into submission but if you humiliate the officers, sooner or later one of them will turn against you. This was the lesson which Captain Bligh and Margaret Thatcher had to learn the hard way and Gordon Brown has forgotten.
Purple Scorpion
November 24th, 2007 7:42pmGood grief. Are they your idea of talent? Clarke showed himself a hopeless politician at the highest level, Blunkett was hugely over-promoted, Byers is just a discredited liar. Name me one person in the cabinet whose resignation would even be noticed - let alone be serious.
Henry Rogers
November 24th, 2007 8:25pm"....somebody quite big...." Is there anyone like that on the Labour benches, or is Matthew Parris just being polite?
Caroline
November 24th, 2007 10:46pmAmazing that anyone on this intelligent forum pays any heed to Matthew Parris. When he writes risible stuff like 'something is going to happen, something quite nasty' Goodness - really scary perceptive stuff, and presumably also 'feeling it in his water' and 'having a hunch' I thought his articles were intended to be jokey sketches (they aren't?) like the one I copied to an ill friend desperately in need of a chortle to cheer her up. It was in the Times a couple of weeks ago, something along the lines of the Tories real rage and fury, dogs pawing the ground and sniffing the air, boys own twaddle. I'm astounded that anyone here allows him an ounce of credibility. Phew. Have to say - only sensible comment here -Tiberious and Alan Millburn.