The Brown will go stories won't go away until he does
James Forsyth 12:28am
Simon Walters’ Mail on Sunday story about the possibility of Brown stepping down in January so as to avoid being voted out later in the year is going to set tongues wagging. Although there are no named sources in the piece, Walters knows the lay of the Westminster land so well that he wouldn’t be writing it up like this without cause.
What the story is really a reminder of, though, is that once Labour MPs believe that they can replace the leader without having to hold a snap election, then Brown’s position will be far more precarious. At that point, many Labour MPs will think why not roll the dice and see if a new leader can save some of their skins. (Oddly, Walters list of potential new leaders is Johnson, Balls and Purnell.) There is, though, a possibility that Brown's allies are putting about the story that he might go voluntarily so as to drain momentum from any September coup.
Interestingly, tonight’s ComRes poll suggests, as John Rentoul points out, that even if the economy picks up—the last great Brown hope—the Prime Minister won’t get much of a boost. If Labour are still behind the Tories by 10 points or more come the autumn and then New Year, one has to imagine that there will be another attempt to oust Brown and that this time it will garner more support among the Parliamentary Labour Party.



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Dan Freedman
June 21st, 2009 6:50am Report this commentSee Dan Hannan in the telegraph for a more sinister explanation for Brown's timetable.
And Mandelson's real motivation.
Russell
June 21st, 2009 7:43am Report this commentAs a story this is incredibly thin; unnamed "sources" (why unnamed?) speculating unattributably as to whether someone might (or might not) quit. Total non-story. Next?
I'd go with the notion that this is just more Brownian motion, another bit of spin to damp down the September Revolution.
This must be the most dishonest Government in history, moulded by the damaged personality of the guy at the top. Ever day another flood of lies, spin and misrepresentation, leaked to the subservient press.
It reminds me of the time, happily many years ago, when I lived with someone who (as I didn't realise for a long time) was mentally unstable. It is very disorientating; truth changes from hour to hour, nothing can be relied on, everything shifts and changes shape.
Most notable was the compulsive lying and the desperate need to say and do whatever would gain the listener's approval, regardless of blatant self-contradiction. Brown's behaviour reminds me of that person.
Grumpy Old Man
June 21st, 2009 8:46am Report this commentLabour have left it too late. They are stuck with Brown until the GE.
Colin
June 21st, 2009 9:09am Report this commentThe Hannan theory is plausible.
A more delicious scenario is one where Mandelson orchestrates the demise of Brown in the early spring, he then steps in as caretaker PM in the run up to a June election.
Stranger things have happened at sea. What odds on Mandelson for PM, even if only for six weeks or so?
teledu
June 21st, 2009 9:41am Report this commentDan Freedman is spot on and Daniel Hannan's article is well worth the read (and is what I have been saying on here for some time). The EU project comes first, second and third and the wishes of the British don't count.
Cameron would show he believed in democracy by stating that a referendum would be held EVEN if all EU member states had ratified it, if the Conservatives win the next election. Will he?
What do you think?
Yet surely it's a vote winner.
This matter is something that the Spectator should feature on its front page. It's tantamount to treason. Why are we sleepwalking towards this EU mightmare?
Link to Hannan's piece:-
//www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/5587735/We-cant-have-an-election-until-its-too-late.html
Ken from glos
June 21st, 2009 9:47am Report this commentI would suggest that readers take note of Dan Hannan,s article and of Dan Freedman. That is where the truth lies !!
Steve.W
June 21st, 2009 10:25am Report this commentDan Freedman - What Daniel Hannan says about Lord Mandy, his support for the EU but not the UK, also applies to ex-MEP Nick Clegg.
Boudicca
June 21st, 2009 11:42am Report this commentThe key to all this is Mandelson and I think Dan Hannan is right - he is propping up Brown just long enough for Lisbon to be Ratified. I reached the same conclusion myself when the recent coup failed because of Mandelson's determination to keep Brown at all costs, and blogged as such several times.
Once Lisbon is Ratified, within a few months Mandelson will engineer a suitable slot in the EU for Gordon and persuade him to resign with dignity "for the good of the Labour Party."
Someone will be installed as PM who is likely to improve Labour's polling so that some seats they will currently lose are retained and Labour will sit back and quietly lose the next General Election.
Labour know the Tories will have massive financial problems to deal with and are hoping they will become so massively unpopular that Labour will be returned at the next election.
Cameron will have to do something to shore up the Tory support and that thing should be our relationship with the EU. The majority of the country is Eurosceptic and that is where Labour are particularly out of touch. Cameron should hold the Referendum on Lisbon come what may - and use the result to negotiate a new relationship between the UK and the EU. The other nations can keep their Constitutional Treaty if that's what they want - but we should demand large areas of autonomy and repatriation of powers to the UK and with a massive NO vote behind him, the EU would know that if this wasn't agreed, the alternative might well be us leaving the Union.
Flemingcrag
June 21st, 2009 11:44am Report this commentIf you are a betting person then any money you can spare should be bet on Gordon Brown stepping down as Prime Minister before the next election.
Much ink ( the little leftover over from the expenses blackout) has been used to print the fact that like the leopard's inability to change its spots so it is with Gordon's character flaws.
It therefore follows that Macavity Brown will not fight an election, true to form at the very hint of a fight he will run away, always has in the past.
For the Labour party this will be a very revealing moment for their deluded minds, when they still get thrashed at the polls the penny will drop, that dislike for Labours' inept governance does not stop with Gordon. They put him there and they have kept him there.
mitch
June 21st, 2009 12:01pm Report this commentIf mandelson becomes PM even for 2 mins I will join the first riot who want to torch the palace of Westminster.
Over my dead body will that creep be PM.
dearieme
June 21st, 2009 12:37pm Report this comment"lie of the land", surely?
Verity
June 21st, 2009 2:06pm Report this commentDan Freedman and others, I too read Daniel Hannan's astute piece yesterday and as I was reading it, I knew he is correct. This is all about the European project and Mandelson will plan, scheme and manipulate to keep Brown in office until after Lisbon is ratified.
What none of the gentlemen above noticed in yesterday's Telegraph was, Janet Daley, on the same day, had an almost identical piece to Hannan's. She, too, had spotted all the clues and intelligently connected them to reach the same concusion as Hannan.
Quite extaordinary.
Now is not the time for a weak, liberal little deviser of public relations programmes as Tory leader. Against the Machiavellian cunning of Mandelson, he is not even a wet rag. (Indeed, I do not think he would be opposed to Mandelson's programme anyway.)
I thought we should wait until after the election, but since reading Daniel Hannan's outstanding piece yesterday, coincidentally endorsed by Janet Daley's piece, I believe Cameron has to be relieved of his duties now, and a real Tory and a patriot put in as Leader as a matter of urgency. As in, it should be done this coming week.
Verity
June 21st, 2009 2:41pm Report this commentRussell writes: "This must be the most dishonest Government in history, moulded by the damaged personality of the guy at the top."
Tony Blair began the deconstruction of Britain, but, like Brown, Blair was never the man at the top. That has always, I now realise, been Mandelson. The coherence of the two administrations is due to their both following the same script.
Verity
June 21st, 2009 4:25pm Report this commentIf there are no intervening comments, please excuse the hat trick, but among the 137 (so far) commenters on Daniel Hannan's Telelgraph piece is Oxbridge Prat, who writes this: "As usual, Mr Hannan, you are almost but not quite cynical enough. You forgot to ask one question: why is Cameron desperately trying to keep Brown in place until next year?"
Simon Stephenson
June 21st, 2009 4:50pm Report this commentVerity
Perhaps you have a different feed in North America, but the Janet Daley article in yesterday's Telegraph that I read was about a topic quite different from Hannan's.
Puzzled!
Verity
June 21st, 2009 5:31pm Report this commentSimon Stephenson, it was on her blog. I should have specified. Please forgive.
Verity
June 21st, 2009 5:48pm Report this commentPS, Simon S, I just went back and looked for it, intending to send the link, and I couldn't find it either! The piece I read by her was not on the same subject as Hannan's but she touched on some of the identical points and drew the same conclusions. I am baffled.
hadrian
June 21st, 2009 9:39pm Report this commentThe suggestion that Mandy might do a knife job on Broon, come the spring and step in as caretaker PM for a few weeks utterly beggars belief. Do you think the longsuffering British Public would put up with that for one minute? There'd be either revolution on the streets or a complete Labour wipe-out at the General Election. The man is without a shred of democratic authority and following on from another unelected PM would virtually force the Queen to dissolve the Parliament on the spot.
egh
June 22nd, 2009 4:19am Report this commentI agree with Hannan's suggestions and, like several people here, decided long ago that this is happening. I'd also highlight, once again, that part of the agenda must be to roll sterling over to the euro - before they go.
Of course, that's if they go. They seem so sure they're here to stay... Similarly - as someone on Hannan's blogroll observed - the eu seems insultingly certain that the Irish will give the 'right' answer this time.
I guess it's the euSSR's fault none of us can distinguish right from left, these days! Who is the puppeteer, though? Are we really subject to a Bildeberg/ Mafia oligarchy? Most info on that stuff is clearly trash - but who can help sensing that somebody, somewhere, is pulling wires for all the dollies at Westminster?
Also am v. interested in the article Simon S and Verity are discussing - which presumably has been recalled. Any connection between such manipulations and the blankness with which the media face the urgency? Teledu voices it well, above: "This matter is something that the Spectator should feature on its front page. It's tantamount to treason. Why are we sleepwalking towards this EU mightmare?"
Then there's always the question of what might be in the water...
I remember a business-person who seriously advocated such measures.
Verity
June 22nd, 2009 2:16pm Report this commentedg - Simon S and I (and several others) were discussing Daniel Hannan's piece (I see the comments on that blog are still rolling in) and I also mentioned a piece which drew similar conclusions, by Janet Daley.
I stupidly didn't copy the link or make a note of the title, and can't find it again. But she drew a conclusion that was very similar to Daniel Hannan's.
Re The Speaker, the Queen has to step in. If she doesn't she will have failed in the one rigorous decision she has had to make in 60 years.
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