Brown's big lie
Fraser Nelson 9:19am
How long can a Prime Minister in a democracy lie to his country and get away with it? Gordon Brown is trying to find out. His Big Lie - that his published plans do not involve a cut in public services - would not have withstood a Spending Review, which would have spelled out departmental budgets from April 2011-April 2014. So, it has been postponed.
Current sending is being run on budgets set out in the 2007 review (itself delayed) which lasts until 2010-11. Since it was drafted the forecast for 2010-11 tax revenue has fallen by some £150bn. So should not budgets be altered to reflect the (to put it politely) changed economic conditions? Of course. But Brown is delaying this, as it would expose his lie: that public spending will continue to rise under him. He has already factored in cuts: we saw that in the spending envelopes laid out in the last Budget. But a Spending Review would make brutally clear what would be cut. I suspect it would show that Labour would cut the NHS budget while the Tories would not. It would have proven what the Institute for Fiscal Studies has shown (see chart): that departmental spending would be cut by 7 percent in real terms over that three year period. It would have exploded the lie on which Brown hopes to base the next election campaign.
The Tories had believed (bless) that Brown would be honour bound to publish a Spending Review in March. Today's delay of this review was of course announced not by the Chancellor but by Peter Mandelson, who deployed his serpentine skills to full effect on Radio Four this morning while Evan Davis almost exploded with indignation. It's great that the BBC has a presenter who understands immediately what the delay of a Spending Review implies, and who instantly rejected Mandelson's claim that we have to wait and see how the economy does - because, as he knows, no economist has a rosier forecasts than that portrayed by HMT in the Budget.
But Davis should have said, rather calmly, "Can I put it to you, Lord Mandelson, that this unprecedented delay of the Spending Review is due to your inability to be honest with the British public about what your spending plans involve? You say the Tories would cut by 10 percent and want us to believe you would not do the same - but a Spending Review as planned under your system would, of course, force you to show your hand. Is your opinion of the public's intelligence really so low?"
We live in interesting times. Brown's claim that he'd increase public service spending year after year is not an exaggeration, it is a lie. I cannot think of any modern Prime Minister who has based his strategy on a demonstrable lie - but Brown thinks no one can add up enough to expose him. After all, he got away with it as Chancellor. Why not now? As I have said before I believe the internet will hound him. We have infinite space to print the tables, the data, the proof. The table above spells it out, and we will keepm reprinting it every time Brown repeats his lie. He is going for broke - in every way.
PS Under Brown's system, Spending Reviews cover three-year periods, but are updated every two years. We had one in 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004. But the next one - intended as Brown's pre-election manifesto - was then delayed to Oct 2007. It was getting out of synch: to make forecasts beyond April 2011 departments really needed to see a Spending Review last year. That was delayed, and now Mandelson (rather than Darling, of course) has announced we won't get one until after the election. So the whole point of Spending Reviews - giving departments greater visibility - has been junked so Brown can continue to spin his Big Lie hoping no one can do a calculation like the one above.



Previous



Thortung
June 29th, 2009 9:48am Report this commentThis government is more like a dictatorship every day.
Wily Trout
June 29th, 2009 9:58am Report this commentThere's an article in today's Times about cuts to the Police. But they are 'efficiency savings' of course. Labour efficiency savings, Tory cuts. They must think the voters are really, really stupid. Hope to god they aren't right. But nowadays 25% of the workforce, and therefore quite a big proportion of the voters, are of course in the public sector and on the receiving end of the cuts. So Labour's own client state will be taking the impact. Interesting.
Ivan D
June 29th, 2009 9:59am Report this commentGiven the numptie hysteria you've given vent to about immigratuion in the last 24 hours - fundamentally misunderstanding basic economics in the process - knock off the 'Brown lies!' cr*p. For while he does, he's not the only one. Unless, obviously, you sincerely want to stand by your absurd Screws claim to have "revealed" that "immigrants have taken (or created) all the new jobs in the British private sector". In which you're not, of course, a liar, merely a fool.
boulay
June 29th, 2009 10:02am Report this commenthi fraser,
it is all very well to expose the lie on the internet and in the spectator in print but those of us who read these articles already know the lie inside-out.
the key is getting the mainstream press (ok - except obviously the mirror) to reprint these figures in a way that any idiot can understand even if this means showing the scale-down in terms of beer consumption or designer shoes!
You seem to have great contacts in the mainstream media and should be pressing them to hammer these figures down the government's throats - even, if necessary, helping them to produce tables that demonstrate the lie simply.
unfortunately the mainstream media is still the source of news for the majority of voters and it is vital that someone can get the story repeated constantly.
(perhaps i should have lumped the beeb with the mirror as refuseniks as well!)
councilhousetory
June 29th, 2009 10:09am Report this commentBrilliant post, keep up the good work.
David
June 29th, 2009 10:12am Report this commentIt is good that the Today programme has finally got someone econcomically literate doing the interviews. There is also an interesting change of tone on the part of the BBC. As power seeps away we see a less deferential approach and a greater tendency to call the more obvious deceits. This has been particularly apparent on the Yesterday in Parliment programme. You provide essential base material for such interviews and challenges and undoubtedly assisted DC in PMQs last week. Thank you for your efforts.
richardj
June 29th, 2009 10:13am Report this commentOn the streets - refuse to pay tax and other sums due to the governemnt - any other suggestions.
DavefromLuton
June 29th, 2009 10:18am Report this commentHow long before Cameron calls Brown a liar in the House, refuses to withdraw and gets named by the Speaker?
Would be an interesting confrontation!
A Theologian
June 29th, 2009 10:39am Report this commentThortung
This government is more like a dictatorship every day.
No: it already is.
Slim Jim
June 29th, 2009 10:40am Report this commentIt's pretty clear that Team Brown are backing themselves down a cul-de-sac. The increasingly shrill, predictable, partisan pish they are spouting is getting quite tiresome. Of course the nasty Tories are proposing cuts to give their rich chums tax cuts. It's got nothing to do with repaying enormous national debts or 'living within our means' (a term I believe Mandelson used). Let's hope that the likes of Evan can keep up the pressure and expose the lies.
John
June 29th, 2009 10:44am Report this commentI am genuinely seething with rage.
john miller
June 29th, 2009 10:48am Report this commentHaha! I see Balls is starting to use the word "deft". Implying efficiency savings will enable higher expenditure but no tax increases. Coming from someone who worked in the same room as Brown and McBride I doubt Balls had come across the word until Mandy waved a Thesaurus under his nose.
And while I'm on, this lot are lying so blatantly now, not caring that we know that they know that we know, I beginning to think there will be a terrorist alert next year. I can see Brown now on the Beeb, telling us that the chaos of a general election would be fatal for the country.
James J
June 29th, 2009 10:48am Report this commentIt hardly matters what message the government puts out as the public now use a type of “Record Ukrainian Harvest” “Tractor production up again in Stalingrad” type filter.
Nothing the government puts out is believed. Crime figures, immigration, the reasons for war, E.U Referendum …nothing
Wily Trout
Even the public sector knows there will be cuts, like everyone else they just hope most will fall on other departments. Speak to anyone in the public or private sector and it is about how deep the cuts will be and whether we will ever be as relatively wealthy, as a country, again.
trevorsden
June 29th, 2009 10:54am Report this commentYour the numpty Ivan
David Leaver
June 29th, 2009 11:04am Report this commentIs the D in Ivan, Damian (McBride)?
Lee H
June 29th, 2009 11:14am Report this commentAs boulay says, unless you get it in the main stream press it doesn't mean anything. Madelson is already using the press to get an alternative message out there and swamp the media
Trumpeter Lanfried
June 29th, 2009 11:51am Report this commentWhy does an intelligent man like Mandleson assume that the typical listener to Radio 4's flagship current affairs programme is stupid?
Ivan Dunnow
June 29th, 2009 12:09pm Report this commentYeah, the D is as in Damian McBride. *Everyone* who objects to tame tribal lying, even when it's on our side, is a secret agent of Broonism. You loon.
davidke
June 29th, 2009 12:18pm Report this commentthe bigger the lie the better. he may well get away with it.
Denis Cooper
June 29th, 2009 12:25pm Report this commentUndoubtedly correct, but too complicated for mass consumption; and in any case, it could be misinterpreted as a criticism of Brown for planning to spend less than he says ... and I thought you wanted him to spend less? :-)
I think it's time for the opposition to start asking a very simple, very blunt question every time the government moots some increase in spending:
"Where are you going to get the money for that?"
and then immediately follow up with:
"You're already having to borrow a quarter of everything you spend; you're already having to borrow a billion pounds every working day ..."
MisterE
June 29th, 2009 12:40pm Report this commentDavefromLuton - good point.
If Cameron stood up at PMQs, called Brown a liar, and refused to withdraw it would make headline news... every paper & tv news bulletin would run the story, and would have to explain why Cameron called Brown a liar in the first place...
Irene
June 29th, 2009 12:44pm Report this commentCameron's news conference earlier this morning was brilliant - he just fell short of calling Brown an outright liar, but Joey Jones on Sky said he is sure it will come soon - Cameron also offered to give up one of the opposition days to facilitate Lord Mandelson with regard to the Post Office, Mandelson said there wasn't time to get it through before the Summer recess, Cameron kicked the ball firmly in Mandelson's court - interesting to see if Cameron mentions this again at PMQ's.
Keep up the good work Fraser.
Tiberius
June 29th, 2009 12:57pm Report this commentYou're playing a blinder, Fraser.
The bad-tempered posts are testimony to that.
Gawain
June 29th, 2009 1:07pm Report this commentThe real issue this raises is the complete impotence of Parliament. An unelected minister is used to make a major policy announcement to a patsy newspaper. What is the point of all the select committees, question times and debates? What is the point of having a Chancellor of the Exchequer? What is the point of the Speaker of the Commons asking for statements to be made to the elected House of Commons? Above all, who is the Treasury working for, the Labour Party? I don't know why Brown isn't just honest and announce that the election will be cancelled.
Simon Stephenson
June 29th, 2009 2:58pm Report this commentIvan D : 12.09pm
I'll second this. Distorting your case for effect is not lying, but it might as well be for the damage it does to your reputation if discovered.
For heaven's sake, there's enough power in the truth to sink this government ten times over. Don't throw away the opportunity by getting tarred with the same brush as they are.
TGF UKIP
June 29th, 2009 7:29pm Report this commentFraser, unfortunately you don't do interviews on the telly, your fellow jockocrat Marr does and never of course does he press his pal Gordon.
Don't the party leaders do a Marr interview, though, before they break up for the Summer recess? If so why don't you put Marr publicly on the spot by using your NoW and Fanzine columns prior to the interview to formulate the questions and the wriggling/lying prevention follow ups, tell your readers you are e-mailing them to your pal Andrew and invite them to judge whether or not he appeared to really want to get a proper answer from Gordon.
No use relying on Dave - he don't/can't do figures and as for your mate Boy George a quote from a Tory backbencher " We could really do with a full scale Commons debate on the economy but we daren't have one because Osborne would just make a bloody fool of himself again."
Herbert Thornton
June 29th, 2009 11:24pm Report this comment"Brown's claim that he'd increase public service spending year after year is not an exaggeration, it is a lie."
But is it a lie? My fear is that is is the truth -and that in order to increase spending Brown will simply print as much as he feels is required.
First there was the Weimar inflation. Much more recently there was the Mugabe inflation. Now Brown is steering Britain in the same direction.
What will happen then - to whom will people turn as their money becomes quickly worthless? And in what way will the presence of Britain's large Islamic community affect the outcome?
Julie Hauserman
June 30th, 2009 2:34pm Report this commentI have just asked for epetition to 10 asking for the Gov Department Spending Review to be published March 2010 - see what happens and see it is gets allowed on the site!
Thomas Rossetti
June 30th, 2009 7:18pm Report this commentGood article, Fraser. I agree with you that the internet will expose Brown's lies. I hope that you (and the other good journalists out there) keep hounding him.
Daveyone
June 30th, 2009 11:09pm Report this commentGordon Brown has not been elected as Prime Minister he was not even voted for as Labour leader by his party, he did not put a Labour candidate up against David Davis last year so how can someone with such a disregard for democracy have any further ligitamacy in office?
In addition to the financial mistakes this guy, who spent 10 years at the top of the treasury, has left us with he has also brought words into our vocabluary such as Starlinist Brown, Orwellian and Soviet Britain so he has well passed his sell by date and needs to go to the country TODAY!
Hutch
July 1st, 2009 8:42am Report this commentThe incompetance and duplicity of the Prime Minister is such that he will be found out. How will he be punished for his arrogance. Bring back impeachment and the stocks.
Joe Wright
July 1st, 2009 8:53am Report this commentNot only should David Cameron call Brown a liar in the House but all the Tory MPs should accompany him on his dismissal. Confronting the PM with a rational argument is a waste of time.
paul holdstock
July 1st, 2009 7:22pm Report this commentpicture the scene,
john prescot returns to be the 'fat controller' of the east coast line.
his first action, to commission a new steam locomotive, with browns' face on the front, as in 'thomas the tank engine'.
he names the loco,
" The Lying Scotsman".
Shakassoc
July 1st, 2009 9:35pm Report this comment@ Trumpeter Lanfried
'Why does an intelligent man like Mandleson assume that the typical listener to Radio 4's flagship current affairs programme is stupid?'
He is using precisely the same strategy as Goebbels: If you repeat a lie loud enough and often enough, eventually people will believe it. Mandelson is intelligent just as Goebbels was.
TomTom
July 2nd, 2009 5:24am Report this comment'Why does an intelligent man like Mandleson assume that the typical listener to Radio 4's flagship current affairs programme is stupid?
because he was a TV producer with John Birt at LTV and has the smug supercilious attitude that is the hallmark of the modern Briton as they mask shallowness with haughty condescension
Lola Olukotun
July 17th, 2009 12:12pm Report this commentHi, i was wondering if u could read my poem and tell me what you thought about it and maybe help me to get it published in the times?
The child screams in pain,
But no one seems to hear,
The whole world continues,
As the child screams again.
The woman is crying,
the tears flowing down her cheeks,
the whole world continues,
but she hasnt eaten in weeks.
The well has dirty water,
the taste bad and toxic,
the whole world continues,
as a child of 3 drinks it.
the guns are shot continuously,
each bang! takes a life,
the whole world continues,
gangs keep carrying knives.
the bombs keep exploding,
the soldiers are dying
the whole world continues,
as their wives start crying.
the bank is empty,
no money is there
the whole world continues,
though theres no money to spare
the MPs are spending cash,
they are abusing their roles,
the whole world continues,
so in OUR pockes are holes
the whole world continues,
the whole world continues,
while everything bad happens,
the whole world continues.
if we keep going, will the whole world continue?
-Child Poverty
-Famine
-Dirty Water in poor countries
-Gang violence
-Wars around the world
-The recession
-MP unjust expenses
Maybe if the whole world STOPS; we will come to our sense.
CHANGE THE WORLD
Jacob
August 8th, 2009 7:40am Report this commentSorry but why is inexorably rising public spending a good thing anyway? I think, on balance, the public would now prefer to see cuts as they know the money is usually spent inefficiently and/or on generous final salary pension schemes (which can be taken at age 60).
Back to top