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Friday, 3rd July 2009

Can Brown's inner circle be broken?

Peter Hoskin 11:28am

Given the speculation that's whirling around Westminster about plots to oust Brown in the autumn, it's worth noting this passage from Steve Richards' article for the latest New Statesman:

"The most significant change since the hopelessly disparate attempted coup last month is how the rest of the cabinet relate to Brown, Mandelson and Balls, the trio who are working closely together. Recently a friend asked one cabinet minister on the so-called Blairite wing whether he thought Mandelson would tell Brown that the game was up if polls suggested Labour was heading for electoral oblivion. The minister replied that he could no longer have such a conversation with Mandelson; it would be seen as disloyal to Brown to present such a hypothesis. In his view, Mandelson now works first and foremost for Brown, and that is the end of the matter. Similarly, a cabinet minister regarded as a Brown supporter feels less engaged now that the Prime Minister has in effect formalised an inner circle with Mandelson and Balls at its heart. It is cabinet ministers outside the inner circle who dare to wonder about where all this is heading.

But they wonder shapelessly. In theory, they are strong. Brown cannot afford any more resignations. Ministers have more space to breathe than at any time since Labour came to power, when nearly all of them were stifled by the Blair/Brown duopoly, followed by the Brown coronation. The most potent example is the position of the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, who is now unsackable, having been almost sacked at the last reshuffle. Darling is aware of his peculiar security and is becoming more assertive in his determination to convey a more prudent message about future spending prospects.

However, there is little sign, as yet, that any minister in the 'outer circle' has a better election strategy than the one being advanced by Brown, Balls and Mandelson. This includes Darling, who hasn’t found a compelling political message to accompany his more authoritative handling of the economy. As a senior government insider put it: 'Alistair has to decide whether he wants to be like Roy Jenkins – an austere chancellor who delivered a Budget that contributed to Labour losing the election in 1970 – or a genuinely Labour chancellor who wants us to win.' The suggestion that it is up to Darling to decide which course he will take is a testament to the power that suddenly resides in the Treasury.

For now, the signs are that Brown, Balls and Mandelson are more focused than the disparate insurrectionists and bewildered internal critics."

One question this does leave open is what should happen if the mutual loyalty of the "inner circle" breaks down.  Balls has, allegedly, already said that he'll wield the knife if Brown fails to improve Labour's standing over the next few months.  And Mandelson's motives remain perpetually mysterious.  If one of them were to turn on Brown - and that's a Big If - then you suspect it could be fatal to his premiership.

Filed under: Downing Street (11 more articles) , Gordon Brown (222 more articles) , Government (111 more articles) , Labour (338 more articles) , Peter Mandelson (14 more articles) , UK politics (538 more articles)

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TrevorsDen

July 3rd, 2009 12:09pm Report this comment

The equation which counts is 'govt spending minus tax receipts equalls x'

Darling says 'x' is £180 billion this year. The start of the year is not encouraging. The higher the 'x' figure gets the more untenable Browns policy becomes.

Niccolò M

July 3rd, 2009 12:16pm Report this comment

One amongst the trio must be thinking that a change of front man is needed. But when will he act? And when he does it must be utter destruction, for injury will only lead to retaliation.

Ivan

July 3rd, 2009 12:16pm Report this comment

This is so much fiddle playing while Rome is burning. The country neither requires nor needs this kind of political machinations while the economy sputters, foreign wars continue, and social problems mount. A Government that is more focused on its internal comportment than helping the nation is by definition obnoxious. They need to go.

Jackie M Miller

July 3rd, 2009 12:26pm Report this comment

It looks to me as though the 'senior government insider' sees Darling as having to choose whether he's working for the country or the party. That, in a nutshell, is exactly what is wrong with this administration. It thinks loyalty to party morally superior to loyalty to country. And that is why we have to get rid of it as soon as possible before the damage to the country becomes irrevocable.

Julianlzb87

July 3rd, 2009 12:42pm Report this comment

It wouldn't be fair to the voters
to remove Ratsputin Brown before
an election. The voters deserve
the right and joyful pleasure
of driving a wooden stake
through his heart.

A Williams

July 3rd, 2009 12:43pm Report this comment

Mandelson's motive is to keep Brown in position and so delay a General election until the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, hence all the speculation about an Brown being replaced in Autumn, after the Irish Referendum which is expected to be passed this time.

The Bellman

July 3rd, 2009 12:45pm Report this comment

Isn't this one of the flaws of such a 'wiki-coup'? It's all very well dispersing and maintaining contact by Twitter, anonymous cellphones and the like, but that provides only the conditions for action. It does not allow you to develop the essential means, which is trust - and that can only be achieved by human interaction, preferably sustained over a prolonged period of intimate co-operation. You can concentrate physically, in a location, but you cannot ensure a concentration of will, still less direct it towards a unified end.

Frankly, with such a collection of self-serving spineless venal bullying cowards as the parliamentary Labour party, it's no wonder, bereft of the chance for a firm handshake and eye-to-eye soul-searching, that none of them trusted the others sufficiently to follow Purnell over the top.

And that's when the stakes are mere political survival. Imagine trying to use Twitter to organise a coup against Hitler, Stalin or even Chavez, where there's considerably more at stake than the opinion of a few Westminster hacks.

That, I venture to suggest, is why the so-called 'Twitter revolution' in Moldova, and the similar spectacles in Georgia and Iran, have been relatively easily faced down and marginalised. They cannot not live up to the hopes they've been made to carry by technocrats, because it's a means in pursuit of an end. A crowd is superficially intimidating, but only practically so if it has leadership to direct it. Peer-to-peer networking doesn't substitute for that. Twitter provides the illusion of mass movement; but, although you might seem to have more information and more support, with little practical opportunity to discriminate between the reliable and the hysterical, and the ability to apply that unity of effort to a common end, you're still a mass of sheep. Just sheep with shiny phones.

dave, surrey

July 3rd, 2009 12:54pm Report this comment

'The most potent example is the position of the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, who is now unsackable,' oh the irony, didn't Tony Blair suffer from an unsackable chancellor

Short the UK

July 3rd, 2009 1:31pm Report this comment

The madness of 10 Downing Street:

~Gordon Brown = Dr. Evil

~Ed Balls = Mini-Me

~Peter Mandelson = Number Two

~Harriet Harman = Frau Farbissina

logdon

July 3rd, 2009 1:36pm Report this comment

Sorry but the very title unleashed my inner Guido which involves an old gay joke on how to widen the circle of your friends.

Those scurrilous knaves would be playing around with the smeary semantics of Anusol and Preparation H to their hearts content.

Let’s face it, their merry jesting is probably the only way to treat this lot whose inner machinations are centred around the most dishonest and reviled trio in political history.

So inept, so devious, so beneath serious contempt, isn’t the Guido brand of humour our only liferaft?

Simon Stephenson

July 3rd, 2009 1:36pm Report this comment

If I were you, I shouldn't attach too much credence to what Steve Richards writes. He'll, more than anyone, write what the Labour hierarchy want him to write. For Richards, getting Labour elected is the be-all and end-all of his jounalistic ambition, and if it's desired for him to write that the sun rotates round the earth then that's what he'll write.

Sorry to be so dismissive of a well-known name in the national press, but I'm afraid that every op-ed column of Richards' that I've ever read has had as it's underlying message "Labour Good, Anything else Bad". This is the starting point from which every argument is made. Never from the validity or truthfulness of the policy or assertion being considered.

Verity

July 3rd, 2009 1:42pm Report this comment

Daniel Hannan said it first: Mandelson's mission is to keep Brown in office until after the Lisbon Treaty has been ratified, after which the county of Great Britain is history. Mandelson's next project would be the euro, after which he and Tony can skip hand in hand through the lavender fields of the Langudoc and the vineyards of France and Germany happy, happy, happy.

cuffleyburgers

July 3rd, 2009 2:09pm Report this comment

"Mandelson's motives remain perpetually mysterious" - NOT.

It has been increasingly clear that Mandelson is on a Brussels-backed mission to prop up the govt until after the presumed irish "yes" vote.

With Lisbon in the bag Brown will be defenestrated tout de suite, in the hope of limiting the Tories' gains so as to limit the risk of resistance to further integration against the will of the people of this country.

No need to be so coy, Hoskin.

Paul

July 3rd, 2009 2:16pm Report this comment

Ivan, I totally agree with you.

Fellow posters, let us not encourage the journalists here to join in with the fiddling. We have a conduit through them, and the message I would like to send is that this Government was already finished a long time ago. As it is, we are speculating about the positions of deck chairs aboard the Titanic. A concerted effort should be made to remove Labour from office because the longer they stay in, the more lives they ruin.

Paul

July 3rd, 2009 2:21pm Report this comment

logdon, I don't find Guido funny at all, and most times hardly relevant.

I agree with you Bellman

Paul

July 3rd, 2009 2:24pm Report this comment

What Mandelsohn hasn't factored into his calculations is that if they keep trying to make us European citizens without asking us if we would like to be, then sometime down the line there will be a war, and he will end his days hanging from a lamp post.

Lanarkian

July 3rd, 2009 2:30pm Report this comment

I cannot help but feel that there is something Machiavelian about Lord Mandelson at present. His advice to Tony Blair always seemed surefooted but now he is with Gordon Brown, the PM does not seem to make one coorect move. Revenge is a dish best served cold, maybe?

Verity

July 3rd, 2009 2:50pm Report this comment

Paul - Mmmmmm ... lamp post ... wire ... what The Devil's Kitchen refers to so winsomely as "air tap dancing".

David Ossitt

July 3rd, 2009 3:56pm Report this comment

Paul

"What Mandelsohn hasn't factored into his calculations is that if they keep trying to make us European citizens without asking us if we would like to be, then sometime down the line there will be a war"

I agree; but we sceptics tend to think of this only from an English or UK perspective.

There are many in the other EU countries who hold similar opinions, what is needed is a leader to harness this opinion-base into some kind of positive action.

Martin C

July 3rd, 2009 4:11pm Report this comment

Daniel Hannan has it bang to rights. The whole rotten ediface will be propped up, irrespective of cost, until the Lisbon Treaty is ratified. Then and only then it can all be left to go to ratsh!it.
Prediction for you: Mandelson will simply step aside within a week or two of the Lisbon Treaty becoming irrevocable. Labour will collapse shortly thereafter - but it wont matter much then. You saw it here first.

howard

July 3rd, 2009 6:38pm Report this comment

Let's hope Klaus, the Czech Prez will chew on Lisbon for another year, it might be sent back to their parliament due to concessions to Ireland. Also, the Polish parliament has been combing it, no approval yet + Prez not keen either. There is still hope, guys.

logdon

July 3rd, 2009 7:26pm Report this comment

Paul
July 3rd, 2009 2:21pm

"logdon, I don't find Guido funny at all, and most times hardly relevant."

Is 'Paul' a pseudonym for Damian McBride by any chance?

Jim

July 3rd, 2009 7:51pm Report this comment

It will be broken on the rocks of the coming fiscal crisis, as indeed will most of the rest of the establishment.
People don't seem to want to grasp the full horror of it yet, ostriches have got nothing on us.

Andy

July 4th, 2009 8:19pm Report this comment

"'Alistair has to decide whether he wants to be like Roy Jenkins – an austere chancellor who delivered a Budget that contributed to Labour losing the election in 1970 – or a genuinely Labour chancellor who wants us to win.'" Says it all, really - nowhere is there any consideration of what action is best for the country. I agree with the Mandelson/Irish 2nd vote theories. PM's plan is to get us subject to the constitution whether we like it or not.

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