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Friday, 4th January 2008

Obama is now the most likely Democratic nominee

James Forsyth 5:06am

Barack Obama must now be regarded as the favourite to win the Democratic nomination. He has absolutely thumped Hillary Clinton in Iowa, 38% to 29% with 99% of precincts reporting. Barring an unforeseen event, one has to assume that the momentum from this win will carry him to victory in New Hampshire five days from now. If Hillary finds herself 0 for 2 heading to South Carolina with Obama having proved to black voters that he can win in heavily white states then she is in real trouble. Another bonus for Obama is that the way he won tonight--bringing in independents, disillusioned Republicans and first time voters—bolsters his message that he is the candidate who can bring America together.

When Obama addressed his victory rally he looked and sounded like a man who believed that he will be president—and the crowd acted like they believed it too. With his voice recovered, Obama’s delivery was more powerful than yesterday and his speech was cleverly written to provide plenty of powerful moments for the news networks to extract. 

We’re about to see a tidal wave of positive press coverage for Obama with a whole variety of storylines for the media to chose from—the historic possibility of a first black president, the derailing of the Clinton inevitability train, Obama’s phenomenal ability to bring new people into the Democratic fold—and Obama will have huge momentum in the run up to the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. It is remarkable to think that someone who addressed the 2004 Democratic convention as a state senator is now likely to be doing so as the party’s presidential nominee in 2008. 

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Dolores DiBartolo

January 4th, 2008 6:10am Report this comment

Senator Obama has been my candidate of choice since the very beginning. I congratulate him and his beautiful family. This was a night one can only dream could be true. Thankfully it was just that and so much more. His speach was one that provoked so much emotion and confidence, I am confident he is to be our leader. My prayers and best wishes go out to him as he paves his way to the White House.

Lee Jakeman

January 4th, 2008 9:35am Report this comment

In the sincerity stakes, Obama beats all of the other contenders. The big question is: can he come up with equally convincing policies? Perhaps he's one of those who will mature in office and become a great president.

Max Kaye

January 4th, 2008 10:12am Report this comment

He's a nice boy and a good 'anyone but Hilary' candidate. I hope he makes the distance and thus assures a Republican presidency.

Nills Haroldsen

January 4th, 2008 11:10am Report this comment

I am a former Iowan. Iowa is not the rest of the USA and its importance is really overblown. It has two types of people, rather extreme liberals, and extreme bible thumping conservatives. The smart centrist people are also there but they usually are too cold to go out and partake in the silly caucuses which they realize won´t add up to much. Before anybody gives too much significance to Iowa, ask yourself, what kind of people live there. It is mostly people who have failed to get away to someplace warmer and are stuck there dreaming of a warmer winter and a more pleasant summer. Iowa is awful both times of year. And spring is also bad for the allergies with all the pollen. It is flat and boring and people there drink too much to forget they are stuck in Iowa, or they spend a lot of time being saved (also part of the 12 step drying out plan) so lots of towns have many bars and many churches, the people vaccillate from one state to the other. The only similar area is the pacific northwest which has the added kicker of lots of high tech jobs and money, in addition to outstanding marijuana and other drugs. Iowans have to grow their own marijuana. Anyway they do not resemble the people in the rest of the country very much. So no one should make any presuppositions based on this vote which is representative of a tiny weird demographic.

pat

January 4th, 2008 2:52pm Report this comment

Nills Haroldsen-
Sour grapes!you sound like a prophet of doom were your jealous not so evident. I don't want to drum the tired story on the virtues of Obama ( BTW i support Edwards).Has your candidate won, you would have said this victory is important. Do you think your judgement is better than that of all the Americans who voted for Barack?

Tariq

January 4th, 2008 3:23pm Report this comment

In a way this is the worst possible result for Edwards, who now finds himself squeezed between two major headlines: Obama First, Clinton Third. Hard for him to attract attention when all eyes are on those two.

David Lindsay

January 4th, 2008 6:01pm Report this comment

Obama (although he deserves better than for the New York Times to run a front page picture of Clinton) would be slaughtered in a televised debate with a former Governor or a former Mayor of New York, and in any case 2008 is not shaping up to an American year of plenty like 1960, when a charismatic idealist could be chosen, first as candidate and then as President, over a hardheaded realist. Perhaps the East Coast and London media should stop mentioning that Obama is black, since it didn't seem to bother anyone in Iowa. Or did it? His attraction might well be that he is not African-American in the sense that Jesse Jackson meant when he coined the term. And that might well anger a lot of people who are (a lot of whom don't like the products of twentieth-century, legal and more-or-less socially respectable, race-mixing). Imagine if the Republican nominee had a black running mate? A ticket which appeals only to the core of one's own core is electoral suicide. Clinton-Obama? Obama-Clinton (which she'd turn down)? You simply cannot be serious. The Republicans could run a pair of pumpkin pies and beat that. So, all in all, a very good night for John Edwards. Which is a very good night in itself.

Omadhaun

January 4th, 2008 9:01pm Report this comment

You have to realize that the Iowa caucuses are an electoral aberration. In the caucuses a mob of party "activists" group together and rant for awhile before going to a corner and are counted for their candidate. There are no booths, curtains nor really any adult supervision. The media gerbils take this "rally" for serious politics- it isn't. Obama is probably the most refreshing candidate in this sorry lot. Refreshing- is dangerous-the US has elected many refreshing candidates in the last 50 years only to find that they were essentially incompetent. eg Jimmy Carter and, of course our dear Mr. Bush- whose only advantage is that he was marginally better than either of the cretins who opposed him.

Oylok

January 5th, 2008 9:36am Report this comment

I am not sure how good a president Obama would make, but in any case he should be better than raving femnist Hilary, whose moral probity is rather suspect.

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