Friday, 4th January 2008

Where now for the Republicans?

James Forsyth 8:38am

After Iowa, the Republican race remains remarkably fluid. Indeed, it is hard to identify anyone as the frontrunner.

The result was clearly awful for Mitt Romney but Rudy Giuliani was also embarrassed, he only got 4% support comfortably behind Ron Paul, a candidate who Rudy has derided as a bit of a crank, who is at 10% with 95% of precincts reporting. Giuliani’s poor performance here illustrates just how hard it will be for him with his socially liberal, pro-choice positions and operatic private life to appeal to hard core social conservatives. If Giuliani doesn’t come in the medal positions in New Hampshire, a state where he has competed relatively seriously, he is in big trouble and could see his national numbers—which have already dropped significantly—could fall even further.

Romney’s defeat gives John McCain, who has edged ahead of Romney in thelatest New Hampshire polls, a great chance to effectively knock Romney out of the contest by beating him there. McCain is, most polls suggest, the Republican who would have the best chance in a general election and is leading in the latest national polls. So tonight he is probably, by a short head, the Republican frontrunner. But he still has a large obstacle to overcome if he is to get the nomination: the Republican base’s anger at his position on immigration. We can expect Romney to hammer him on this issue for the next five days. The good news for McCain, though, is that Giuliani and Mike Huckabee have their own problems with the base on immigration and have not shown the same willingness as Romney to demagogue this issue. So, if McCain can see off Romney the worst of the immigration issue should be behind him.

Huckabee won big tonight and will be formidable in the South Carolina primary later this month. Yet, he still is a sectional candidate; one can’t see him winning the California or New York primaries. Another problem for Huckabee is that the press think he is not ready to be president. Now, that he’s won Iowa he is going to face even more scrutiny than before and every little slip will be front page news. Also expect a slew of stories about the questionable aspects of his Arkansas record.

One other factor to consider in all this is McCain’s age. If elected in 2008, McCain would be the oldest person ever to take the presidential oath of office for the first time. Up to now, this has been seen as a problem for him but it is worth remembering the adage that young cardinals vote for old popes.

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Bruce

January 4th, 2008 2:09pm Report this comment

Mr. Forsyth, if you knew anything about how Republican voters feel, you'd know that the anti-McCain feeling is due to their opposing ILLEGAL immigration, NOT (as you and the NY Times put it) "immigration". McCain's willingness to "amnesty" the millions of illegals goes against the beliefs of the vast majority of voters of all parties, and especially GOP voters.

David Lindsay

January 4th, 2008 6:04pm Report this comment

Huckabee's victory is a cause of unalloyed joy, because he is really a Democrat. He is a Democrat who believes in the six-day creation, but there used to be a lot of them, and there probably still are under the surface. (Bush is also a creationist, of course.) He is a Democrat who opposes abortion, who defends marriage as only ever between one man and one woman, and who upholds Second Amendment rights. But when many or even most Democrats were like that, there were generations of Democratic dominance, making possible exactly the sorts of things that really do mark out Huckabee, incontrovertibly, as a Democrat: creating jobs, relieving poverty, extending and defending workers' rights, that sort of thing. Since turning into shibboleths abortion, the homosexualist agenda, and the restriction of gun ownership to government functionaries and criminals, the Democrats have driven away great swathes of exactly the people who made them the party of Main Street rather than Wall Street. That Huckabee is running as a Republican demonstrates this more starkly than anything else yet. Huckabee is not, by the way, a "former Baptist minister", as the BBC would have it. He is still a Baptist minister, and I for one rather like the idea that he might nevertheless occupy the reserved presidential pew in Saint John's Episcopal Church, Lafayette Square. It would be rude of them not to invite him to preach occasionally, which would be nothing if not memorable for all concerned. (He is a "former" Governor of Arkansas, but that is never mentioned. Funny how Bill Clinton wasn't treated like that.) Of course, he would destroy his own base, and possibly even bring an Independent into the race, if his running mate were either a social liberal or a Mormon. If his running mate were from the black churches, on the other hand... Huckabee also believes that it is not for America to try and export her political institutions around the world. What's not to like? Which brings us to Ron Paul, with enough money to run as an Independent if necessary, kill off the neocon war agenda for ever as both main candidates tried to appeal to is supporters, and possibly even send the whole election to the floor of Congress. Imagine that.