New polls show Obama with a double digit lead in New Hampshire
James Forsyth 4:39am
The latest New Hampshire polls suggest that Obama is going to blow Clinton away here. He leads by 13 in the Gallup poll and is 10 ahead in the CNN/WMUR poll. These polls match the mood on the ground where the buzz around the Obama events is the talk of the trail. (The photo gives you a sense of the line at the Obama event I blogged about on Saturday)
If the polls are right, one would have to expect Obama to win South Carolina where he was level-pegging even before his Iowa victory. At this point, Hillary would face a choice. She can either gracefully withdraw, return to the Senate and become the new legislative liberal lion much as Ted Kennedy did after failing to win the Democratic nomination in 1980 or, she can wage a brutal campaign to try and take Obama down before February fifth when twenty states vote on one day. The third way, which it would be appropriate for a Clinton to take, would be to stay in the race and be competitive but avoid savaging him. The Clinton campaign, though, are clearly irked by the Obama campaign and it is hard to imagine them walking away from a fight.
Mitt Romney must be delighted by the surge in support for Obama in New Hampshire. Not only does it mean that more independent voters, a key source of McCain strength, will vote in the Democratic primary but it also means that even if McCain beats Romney here it won’t be by a devastating margin. The Politico reports that the Romney campaign is already spinning that a decent second here would be enough for them to carry on as a leading campaign.
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Comments
Anthony Adams
January 7th, 2008 11:44amAm I alone in being underwhelmed by Obama? The mantra of saying "I am change" is not going to last much longer... Plus I just don't get why they are giving the nomination to someone from the liberal wing of the Democrats.... look at his voting record on abortion and gun control.... those are easy targets for the Republicans.. it makes no sense to choose someone that has little to offer and allows easy attacks.
Simon
January 7th, 2008 11:48amI have been away so missed much of this fascinating contest. To be honest I dont know whether I am enjoying Hilary's political death even more than I am Brown's. Great coverage James. Keep it coming.
timothy evans
January 7th, 2008 1:22pmA wise American friend friend of mine sees it this way. Obama is the new generation. Our generation messed it all up. Mc Cain is ours. Romney is ours. Hillary is ours.
But Obama is not. Obama is not Vietnam.
I see him being unstoppable. He is even compared to Bobby Kennedy. And there lies the cautionary note.
My American chum worries that someone might shoot Obama.
Verity
January 7th, 2008 2:54pmAnthony Adams - Believe me, you are not alone. I've commented on exactly this point on other blogs. The guy's experience is two years as a senator, during which meagre time, he neglected his constituents in order to put down the groundwork for running for president. This is insane. He's an unpleasant egomaniac, to which add his 100% lack of executive experience, his lack of experience in DC, his lack of knowledge about anywhere in the world except those two great centres of influence, Kenya and Indonesia. In other words, I want him to be the Democratic candidate because he will scare the Don't Knows over to the Reps. I loathe the guy. He's a Blair-like huckster. Timothy Evans, the last thing you would want your candidate to be associated with is the corrupt Kennedy family.
Verity
January 7th, 2008 3:00pmTimothy Evans, did your "wise American friend" detail exactly what the previous generation "messed up"? The Soviet Union has been defeated, Viet Nam's economy is going like gangbusters, the Chinese are slowly, slowly inching towards capital and are slowly, slowly not only joining the rest of the world, but in a fairly friendly way. The powerhouse of India is set to become one of the two or three major economies of the world within as little as 20 years. Most of Latin America - save Venezuela - has ditched dictators. Mexico has its second conservative president (when his term is up, there will be children who don't remember any other way). Socialism staggers on only in the EU, which is nothing to do with the US president. So perhaps your "wise friend" would let us know what has been "messed up" and what Obama, who is 100% lacking in political experience, is going to fix?
TGF UKIP
January 7th, 2008 7:00pmAs I posted yesterday, the pollster Frank Luntz on Saturday was still viewing Hillary's nomination as virtually inevitable based on her 20% lead nationally and her position in the big states on Super Tuesday. New York is a Clinton state and the Clinton Hollywood gang will deliver California for Hillary. The Clintons have been building their machine for years for Super Tuesday and they will have formidable organizations in the rest of the bigger states that vote on that day. Even if Obama does overcome the odds, I would agree with Anthony Adams and Verity that he is eminently beatable. Not only will his undoubted egotism begin to grate on the electorate but his meagre and ultra liberal record will be laid out bare. However, what we mustn't forget is that if he is the Democrat Candidate, he is going to be lionized and even deified by the three major TV Networks plus CNN. We might want to know more specifics, the Republicans may demand "where's the beef", but will the guy on the omnibus in Peoria give a toss when Obama and his halo is never off his TV screen?
Verity
January 8th, 2008 2:34amTGF-UKIP - I agree that Obama's egoism and aggressive self-regard is a 'nul points' for him. He has momentum, but so does a downhill skier. This guy has zero experience. He is a self-adoring maniac. He has lied about his past so many times. He presents himself as black despite being 50% white, so perhaps white people may be offended by this.
David Lindsay
January 8th, 2008 4:47pmI have been thinking about this "qualified" business. Clinton is no more "qualified" than Obama, unless these things are venereal, in which case the seeds of her husband's alleged greatness have been spread very far and wide indeed. But there have been few more "qualified" President than the first George Bush, and he was not much better than his son, arguably the worst President ever, and easily the least "qualified". Obama's real problem is that he does not appear to hold any political opinion whatever.