Twenty hours in America
James Forsyth 1:57pm
Voting in New Hampshire starts in 21 hours time and unless something dramatic happens between now and then Barack Obama will win big. If he does, the nomination will be his barring a game-changing error from him or some event—say a confrontation between US and Iranian ships in the Straits of Hormuz turning hot—redefining the election.
On the Republican side things are tighter. The polls suggest that John McCain should win but by a relatively small margin. After Saturday’s night debate where all the candidates heavily criticised Romney his campaign could have imploded, but a strong Sunday performance in a televised candidate forum has stopped the bleeding. Indeed, there are whispers this morning that Romney’s emphasis on immigration is bearing more fruit than the polls suggest and with him spending big money on an ad buy for his closing message things could be very tight.
As long as Romney doesn’t lose by double-digits, he’ll have a chance to make a last ditch stand in Michigan where his father was governor. Crucial to that contest could be whether the Huckabee McCain “brotherhood” continues there.
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Voltaire
January 7th, 2008 4:31pmTime to stop worrying about Romney- he needed a good showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire to get off the ground. His numbers are just not competitive nationally and Huckabee is taking away his constituency on the conservative right of the party. A decent second in New Hampshire is not enough for Mitt. Its win or bust. What is impressive is the way that Giuliani has played down expectations so well in the early states. This contrasts with the failures of the Clinton camp to do so. Giuliani is still the most likely nominee. This bandwagon may start as early as Michigan...