If you want to win big, you've got to think big
James Forsyth 3:39pm
The post-mortems are already beginning on the Clinton campaign as everyone here is expecting a big Obama win tonight; the spin from her side is that if they can keep the margin in single figures then it will be a good night for them. In trying to understand why Hillary’s star has fallen so far so fast, it is worth considering why she was running in the first place, the essential essence of their candidacy is what a politician can return to when things gets tough. But as Chuck Todd, the political director of NBC News, points out, Hillary never really laid out why she was running. Her slogan was “In it, to win it”, which raises the question of why she is in it now that she’s not winning.
Another lesson to be learnt from the Clinton campaign woes is that the big idea still matters. Mark Penn, Hillary’s chief strategist who is getting most of the blame for her problems, is an expert at spotting so-called micro-trends, read this interview that Matt did with him on the subject. He thought that Hillary could stitch together a winning coalition. But what Obama is proving is that there is nothing more powerful than tapping into a macro-trend, in this case the desire for a restoration of hope. Indeed, the whole Obama wave can be seen as a rejection of the slicing and dicing of the electorate that has been seen as the key to political success since the 1990s.
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Comments
Bayesian
January 8th, 2008 5:00pmThe introduction of optimism into British politics should be the best contribution from the Obama campaign. The circumstances here are not as propitious as in the US, where no one from the current administration is in the race, and all candidates are distancing themselves from it. Here, the Labour government, flailing about for any form of coherent message, cannot sensibly lay claim to an optimistic message, but Cameron can. Pitching it just right, and at the right time, is the key, and probably more difficult here than in the US, with a more organised (sometimes it doesn't seem like it) election system. This is the challenge for the Conservatives, and only the Conservatives. I hope they can manage it.
TGF UKIP
January 8th, 2008 5:30pmSorry Bayesian, Mrs T was the Conservative Wave with Big Ideas to sell. The present Tory Party and leadership, though, are no more than focus group driven slicers and dicers. Thats why even if, God forbid, they do win in 09/10 they'll only win small.
Austin Barry
January 8th, 2008 7:00pmHillary's campaign was doomed from the start as it was clearly based exclusively on a naked ambition to be President whatever the cost, and that she would adopt any policy, flip flop any position, say and do anything to achieve that end while being entirely without substance, intellect, vision or charm. It has been ugly to watch, particularly now that the smug self-assurance has burst, and the we're left with a rather pathetic aging harridan in a pantsuit.
K,Hesketh
January 9th, 2008 7:40amAustin Barry throwing the toys out of his pram? Obama simply has a crock of 'hope'at the end of his rainbow.No solid policy.Chicken count should be reserved
Austin Barry
January 9th, 2008 7:43amGood old Hillary! She has put the nay-sayers and doom-merchants back in their box and is the charming, gifted front-runner of substance we all thought she was. Go girl.