How did we all get this so wrong?

Not George

Who lost tonight? Yes the media who probably got a bit to giddy on the obama surge. Yes the pollsters who after "predicting" a dead even Iowa "predicted" obama to hit or nearly hit a double digit win in NH and Yes all the other experts who predicted Obama would win based on crowds, momentum, clinton campaign choas... But looks to me like the voters are in a bubble bursting mood they didnt like Clinton being the enivitable frontrunner in Iowa so backed Obama but didnt want obama surging either so lets call it even 2 states down and 2 frontrunners brought back down to Earth...Roll on Election cause I "Predict" its gonna be interesting.

Trumpeter Lanfried

People tell pollsters fibs.

gop in singapore

Please, please please. Let tonight's results guide you to the conclusion that: Obama is not the second coming. Really, your coverage of him on this blog has been nothing sort of ridiculous. Get a grip. And grow up.

Dave

also, what gop said!

Austin Barry

Muskie tears in 1972 = disaster. Clinton tears in 2007 = success. Clearly we are in the age of Oprah-inspired emotionalism and touchy-feely tosh. Have stoicism and the stiff-upper-lip vanished in a limp-wristed, enervated world of nonsense?

gop in singapore

Also, what I find to be astonishing is that you guys, of all people, should see Obama for what he is.

Not the second coming of Christ on earth, but the second coming of Tony Blair.

That same sickening arrogant attitude, the same "whiter than white" claim in ethics, the same dangerous "I will bring everyone together" outlook.

I mean really, you guys spent ten years under a Brit version of Obama (and not for the better)...

You would think that of all blogs, this one would be a little more reserved and skeptical about Obama.

john

gop is right

Stephen Rothbart

Obama Barack is just a Johnny one note. His only mantra is 'change' and that attracted many people sick of the usual lies. But perhaps the thousands of new potential voters that flocked to his side finally realised that after he used the word 'Change' there was very little that he had to offer in the ways of actual policy. Clearly a very good man, but perhaps people realize that a President of a super-power needs to be more than a good man.

serious-thought

We are witnessing the flighty dynamics of polls and talking heads...in the heat of 24/7 coverage the media latch on to the newest nuance that seems different and ance it up to hights beyond all reason. First woman President? Ill give you one bettr, no two...a Black man with a bit of muslim blood...wow...yet...the people go into those secret booths and tell their truth....they want some sense of safety, of calm...hands that will be safe in an unsafe world, and heck a woman as well....let the game proceed

Tiberius

Why the accusation that the blog has not been grown up in its coverage of Obama? The characterization of him as Blair may be true, but it is the result of the Iowa caucus that represents hard fact (and which produced an unpredicted outcome), and so the coverage is perfectly jusifiable.

TGF UKIP

Completely agree with Tiberius. James' coverage from Iowa and NH has been superb. Everyone I have read, heard or watched was reaching the same conclusions on Obama including the real hardbitten conservatives on Fox like Bill Kristol and Fred Barnes.

Caroline

Stephen Rothbart January 9th, 2008 9:52am Try this instead: David Cameron is just a Johnny one note. His only mantra is 'change' and that attracted many people sick of the usual lies. But perhaps the thousands of new potential voters that flocked to his side finally realised that after he used the word 'Change' there was very little that he had to offer in the ways of actual policy. Clearly (now exposed as) a very right wing man, but perhaps people realize that a Prime Minister needs to be more than a harsh and spiteful in both language and behaviour. The public will shortly be reminded in detail of Peter Lilley and the 'little list' against single parents, and not forgetting the Child Support Agency - a terrible vindictive botched policy that resulted in men taking their lives. No change - just the same old Tories.

Mark L

A Clinton comeback was likely. Maybe not a victory, but it was certainly going to be close. Every time one of the big two has established a sense of inevitability there has been a bounce for the other candidate. Examples: when Obama entered the race he was hot on the heels of Clinton, and many felt that he would overtake her comfortably; then Clinton pulled away mid last year; Obama surges back late last year; and now that sense of coronation has prompted voters to look at Clinton again. No one seems to have steadily gained momentum (maybe Clinton last summer, but that was too far ahead of the primaries to be sustained), which is really the key to avoid being shot down. Obama's big problems are that he's being compared to JFK and his camp want him to be seen as Bobby. They're forever young and forever perfect: Obama cannot compete with their myths. Then there's the Edwards factor: he's taking votes from Obama. If I were Clinton I'd be doing everything I can to keep Edwards in the race. If I were Obama I'd be flattering Edwards with promises of a cabinet post at Justice, in exchange for getting out of my way.

Mark L

Just briefly on the media's love affair with Obama. While I don't generally agree, did anyone watch CNN's coverage this morning? Clinton was consistently polling 39-40% from the very first votes to the time that 47% of the results were in (when I trundled off to bed), and Obama was never better than about 2.5% behind, yet they refused to predict an outcome (albeit there were college results to come in). I think there was certainly a belief that the Obama magic simply had to come through in the end.

Joey Hayden

James, just to say that your coverage has been superb - a lesser blogger would have pretended nothing happened. And reading the UK press this morning, you are in good company. And I'd like to see how many of the above commentators put their colours to the mast and predicted Hillary would win NH. I suspect none of them.

Sam Oakley

Fantastic coverage as usual James, your entusiasm for this race has certainly rubbed off on me. I just think how refreshing it is to see democracy being this exciting. I know the US has a completely different system to ours but does anyone else think that this type of process might help to stop the ever growing apathy surrounding our own elections? I don't know if anyone knows how but any ideas for an AS essay i'm writing would be greatly appreciated!

john problem

When one reads about all the people in the US who book expensive seats to listen to Tony Blair, one tends to wonder if the right person will get to be President.