What role did race play in Obama's loss?
James Forsyth 5:10pm
The debate over whether the reluctance of white voters to support a black candidate once in the privacy of the voting booth is what explains Obama’s loss is raging here in New Hampshire. First Read lays out the case, “we can only think of three races in which the public polls and the final result were SO off, and they all involved African-American candidates: Bradley's '82 gubernatorial campaign in California, Doug Wilder's surprisingly narrow '89 victory for Virginia governor, and Harvey Gantt's surprise loss for North Carolina Senate. There is no poll question we can find that can truly measure this phenomenon. But African-Americans are thinking this, and the difference between Iowa and New Hampshire is a voting curtain: Democrats didn't have one in Iowa; they had one in New Hampshire.”
I’m still unconvinced. As Marc Ambinder points out, “The exit polls suggest a simpler explanation: there is no reason why the Bradley effect would be present among older white women (Clinton's base) and not older white men (who voted for Obama). There is no reason unrelated to gender that would cause a demographic split like the ones shown in the exit polls, which, incidentally, turned out to be fairly accurate.”
Having slept on it, my take is that there is something more subtle at work. In Iowa caucusing is a very public affair and a social activity. At the one I went to many people had come with their neighbours, arranged to meet up with friends there and the like: this helped Obama drive turnout among both first-time caucus goers and youngsters. The public nature of it also deterred people from having second-thoughts; meaning that Obama’s support in Iowa was more locked down than in New Hampshire. Finally, there was the fact that you could see who was supporting which candidate. This definitely helped Obama at the Caucus I was at as people wanted to be where the energy was, call it the cool kids factor.
After last night, there’s one purely anecdotal point that strikes me as interesting. In Iowa, folk would bring up the race question and discuss whether a black man was really electable. Here, I never heard it mentioned. I presumed that was because Iowa, which is overwhelmingly white, had appeared to settle that question. But looking back I wonder whether it is not due to the more strained racial history in this part of the States.
PS One of the events that people are citing to explain Hillary’s win is the sexist abuse she received at a rally on election eve. If the roles had been reversed and it had been Obama being racially abused, I expect that he would have won in the predicted landslide.



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Greg Noonan
January 9th, 2008 5:59pm Report this commentJames-- I note that your links don't concern New Hampshire, but instead Massachusetts (more specifically, Boston). Strained racial relations or not, Massachusetts (1) has a black Democratic governor at the moment and (2) had the first black Senator elected by popular vote (Edward Brooke, 1966 (R)). Moreover, you should avoid conflating Massachusetts/Boston with New Hampshire-- the demographics, history, and culture are quite different.
David Lindsay
January 9th, 2008 6:05pm Report this commentObama's attraction to those who experience it in Iowa or New Hampshire (and in the East Coast and London media) might well be that he is not African-American in the sense that Jesse Jackson meant when he coined the term. And that might well anger a lot of people who are (a lot of whom don't like the products of twentieth-century, legal and more-or-less socially respectable, race-mixing). Imagine if the Republican nominee had a black running mate? Imagine of John Edwards announced a black, female running mate before Super Tuesday?
James Forsyth
January 9th, 2008 6:05pm Report this commentGreg, Considering that Hillary's margin came from the southern New Hampshire towns that have seen such an influx of Mass residents in recent years it seems that Mass's racial history is relevant here. While support for the Red Sox certainly runs strong up here. Personally, I'm not sold on the race argument but it seems worth thinking about. Best, James
Rebecca M.
January 9th, 2008 6:21pm Report this commentWhat I find ridiculous is that this is not a race for the best individual to represent the United States of America; it is a race of black against woman. And, as seen here, any time Obama does not win against the woman it will be blamed on racism. You don't see woman claiming sexism or the glass ceiling. Get off your soap box and accept that there might actually be people out there that are going to pop up when it makes a difference for what they believe rather than a poll. A poll is a waste of time. A front runner in the last election was castrated for an unexpected yell; he was top of the charts, till he hollered. Now a PERSON who does not support the NATIONAL ANTHEM didn't get the win in one state and it's all about the racist white woman and everyone behind closed doors. My greatest fear is that some other less than competent person will be voted into office because the right celebrity supported someone or because they bought enough big business, or worse yet, that this will turn into enough of a race/sex race that the voting will be split and a total fool will get the vote, someone no one really intended... Wouldn't that just be a kick…
Stan, Uk
January 9th, 2008 6:33pm Report this commentHillary's 'sexiest abuse incident', oh please totally staged just like the tears for effect incident when she thought she was fighting for her political life!
Greg Noonan
January 9th, 2008 6:42pm Report this commentPoint taken re Nashua and Manchester, but I seriously doubt that the residents who've moved to south New Hampshire are the former residents of South Boston, Dorchester, etc. who vehemently opposed busing. If anything, I suspect southern NH has a lot of tech industry worker spillover, which would seem to be less likely racist. Moreover, her margins were sufficiently impressive in those areas to minimize a racist vote I'd think. As for the Sox point, please remember that the team ownership was Southern white at the time, and, unlike the early 80s Celtics, the team is not really any sort of "Great White Hope" sports phenomenon. You're surely right that race should be considered, though, and I'm surely being overly protective of my hometown. Great coverage throughout-- enjoying it very much.
Verity
January 9th, 2008 7:13pm Report this commentI think in Obama's case, race is not relevant and I wondered how long it would be before someone tried to blame his loss on his "race". He lost in NH because people didn't like him enough and didn't trust him enough and were alarmed by the inadquacy of his experience in Washington. Obama's 50% black and 50% white. Calling him black takes us back to the old African-American definition, when if a person had a drop of black blood, they were automatically classed as "black". He's not part of the heritage of those centuries. He's handsome, very presentable and articulate. However, I'm hopeful that Americans are beginning to get the sense of hucksterism about this individual. His similarities to Tony Blair are alarming.
Gary Gimson
January 9th, 2008 8:55pm Report this commentWhy is a candidate that's exactly half white and half black always labelled as just black? I wonder what Obama's white mother must think - especially as his black father disappeared from his life at a very young age. Let's grow up a bit here and disucss candidates on their merit and not on the colour of their skin (apologies for paraphrasing M.L. King here).
HILLARY CLINTON MAKES HISTORY FOR ALL WOMAN OF EVERY RACE
January 9th, 2008 9:48pm Report this commentHILLARY CLINTON MAKES HISTORY FOR ALL WOMAN OF EVERY RACE. A TRUE EXAMPLE OF UNITING PEOPLE AND NOT DIVIDING THEM BY RACE. Obama camp needs to start taking lessons from the experienced candidates! Hillary Clinton makes History the First Woman to Win New Hampshire Primary Black men were given the vote a half-century before women of any race were allowed to mark a ballot, and generally have ascended to positions of power, from the military to the boardroom, before any women .Why is the sex barrier not taken as seriously as the racial one? The reasons are as pervasive as the air we breathe: because sexism is still confused with nature as racism once was; because anything that affects males is seen as more serious than anything that affects "only" the female half of the human race; because children are still raised mostly by women so men especially tend to feel they are regressing to childhood when dealing with a powerful woman; because racism stereotyped black men as more "masculine" for so long that some white men find their presence to be masculinity-affirming (as long as there aren't too many of them); and because there is still no "right" way to be a woman in public power without being considered a you-know-what. I'm supporting Senator Clinton because like Senator Obama she has community organizing experience, but she also has more years in the Senate, an unprecedented eight years of on-the-job training in the White House, no masculinity to prove, the potential to tap a huge reservoir of this country's talent by her example, and now even the courage to break the no-tears rule. If you look at votes during their two-year overlap in the Senate, they were the same more than 90 percent of the time. Besides, to clean up the mess left by President Bush, we may need two terms of President Clinton and two of President Obama. But what worries me is that he is seen as unifying by his race while she is seen as divisive by her sex. What worries me is that she is accused of "playing the gender card" when citing the old boys' club, while he is seen as unifying by citing civil rights confrontations. What worries me is that male Iowa voters were seen as gender-free when supporting their own, while female voters were seen as biased if they did and disloyal if they didn't. What worries me is that reporters ignore Mr. Obama's dependence on the old -- for instance, the frequent campaign comparisons to John F. Kennedy -- while not challenging the slander that her progressive policies are part of the Washington status quo. What worries me is that some women, perhaps especially younger ones, hope to deny or escape the sexual caste system; thus Iowa women over 50 and 60, who disproportionately supported Senator Clinton, proved once again that women are the one group that grows more radical with age. This country can no longer afford to choose our leaders from a talent pool limited by sex, race, money, powerful fathers and paper degrees. It's time to take equal pride in breaking all the barriers. We have to be able to say: "I'm supporting her because she'll be a great president and because she's a woman." Gloria Steinem is a co-founder of the Women’s Media Center.
Mark Kennedy
January 9th, 2008 9:49pm Report this commentObama he has managed to avoid media bias that’s been against Clinton. "Obama, through an unprecedented convergence of luck has never before faced serious attack yet, Media refuses to show he is a phony, someone whose lofty rhetoric isn't born out in his own public record. WELL UNTIL SENATOR CLINTON BEAT HIM IN NH…Now his lack of foreign policy experience and showing he isn’t ready to lead in a dangerous world. His votes in the Senate to fund the Iraq war even as he tried to position himself as the strongest anti-war candidate. facts show he always supports the war, voted twice in 2006 against bringing America's troops back home, votes for war appropriations giving our money to Halliburton and Blackwater, voted with Bush on posturing S 433 which allows the Bush to suspend any troop withdrawal! Record also shows Obama faced with tough choices always gave in to pressure from Bush admin and corporate lobbyists. Obama voted for Bush's energy bill, sending more than $13 billion in subsidies and tax breaks to oil, coal, and nuclear companies, voted with Repub to allow credit card companies to raise interest rates over 30 percent, increasing hardship for families. "He talks about change but has no real record of making change. Lastly his use of the race card will not play well nationally, We are absolutely sick of obama saying hes not running on race, but thats all he offering and all we are talking about!!!!, he is a self proclaimed Black Racist. Again media attacks Romneys Mormon faith but refuses to discuss obama church. Go to website to know what he believes. http://www.tucc.org/about.htm. I think the media needs to be held accountable! ALL the candidates should have been given the same treatment. All these OLD men who own these media outlets are afraid of an educated strong woman like Senator Clinton. Is why they attack her on clothes, wrinkles etc...And refuse to show her in any positive light. They have completely lost CREDIBILITY FOXs Kristol, CNN, MSNBC etc...Are just the “Enquire on TV.
minny mouse
January 9th, 2008 10:03pm Report this commentHey lets play the RACE CARD.
1stlady
January 10th, 2008 6:19am Report this commentHillary Clinton keeps padding her resume, and like Pinocchio's nose, it just keeps getting longer and longer. First, she claimed she had 7 years of experience-- because of her one term-plus as U.S. Senator. Then she was claiming l5 years of experience, insisting that her years as First Lady count as "experience" too. Lately, she's been saying she has "35 years of experience." Next thing you know, she'll be saying that years before Senator Obama was writing kindergarten essays saying he hoped to be President someday, she was Queen of the kindergarten sandbox! Let's have a reality check: Barack Obama was first elected to the Illinois State Senate in l996-- years before the U.S. Senate was even a gleam in Hillary Clinton's eye. His political experience not only exceeds Hillary's-- his resume also stacks up very well against those of many of our best wartime presidents at the time they were elected to the presidency. Ted Sorensen, President Kennedy's aide and speechwriter, who had a ringside seat for JFK's brilliant handling of some of the toughest challenges ever to face this country (including the Cuban missile crisis), is a strong supporter of Senator Obama for President in '08. Sorensen knows the kind of courage, sound policy judgment, and political experience it takes to make a great President of the United States. He strongly believes that Senator Obama is ready to be President-- and so do I.
David Preiser
January 10th, 2008 6:27pm Report this commentJames, I know you're trying hard to figure it out here, but please don't fall for race-baiter canards. Aside from BBC presenters, the only people who think Americans are too racist to elect a black man are certain well-known race hustlers and so many angry young people who base their political views on emotional responses rather than critical thinking. In reality, Obama and Hillary were virtually tied in the latest polls amongst registered Democrats, something always overlooked. Independents in NH can vote in either primary (not both, obviously), and some of those leaning towards Obama in the polls opted for Hillary in the end. Further, it wasn't the "Iron My Shirt" stunt, but the whole "tear" episode, combined with Spradling's saying that people like Obama more than her, that gave Hillary a last minute "sympathy surge". Everyone got to hear Hillary say "that hurts my feelings." As for "The Tear", most of the video clips shown on TV in the last couple of days did not include her attack on Obama moments later. All most people saw was "The Tear". Lots of supporters came out to vote who may otherwise have not been motivated to make the effort. And they most likely weren't bothering responding to pollsters harassing them on the phone day and night, either. No racism here. Yes, racism exists, and one can never prove that nobody lied to pollsters about their vote. However, if someone did in fact lie about supporting Obama, it was more likely because people know how easy it is to throw around accusations of racism. Even if one has a legitimate political reason for supporting someone other than Obama, one can still be called a racist for no reason other than not voting for a black man, full stop. That's harmful to everyone, and that's what's going on here.
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