Why the press wrote the Obama surge story so hard
James Forsyth 4:07pm
The debate over why the polls in New Hampshire were so wrong is still raging on this side of the Atlantic. An agenda-setting op-ed by the top pollster Andy Kohut in the New York Times says that it is all about race, while others think that it is all to do with gender. To my mind, the most persuasive argument is that the polls underestimated Hillary's support because she picked up the votes of those who were planning to back Democratic candidates who dropped out after Iowa.
Like pretty much everyone else who was in New Hampshire, I’ve been thinking about why everyone (including yours truly) got it so very wrong. One explanation that I’ve come up with is that we all saw what was going on in Iowa—a significant Obama poll lead and huge crowds—but caveated the story to death because there was a feeling that the Clintons would pull it out somehow. But come caucus night, Obama won by a larger margin than any poll was suggesting and everyone who had bitten their tongue was kicking themselves. So when the same set of events seemed to be playing out in New Hampshire we did not hold back.
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ExPat
January 10th, 2008 4:35pm Report this commentCoffeehouse was good. Now it's just a retread of BBC World, Al Jazeera lite and CNN. Two states, small ones, and it's oh Obama oh Hilary. Come home. More important things, more immediate things, are happening here for you to blog about. UK politics doesn't stop because the US has had two small primaries in two small states.
Sarf Lunnon
January 10th, 2008 4:43pm Report this commentA very knowledgeable, very liberal trade union Democrat friend (I taunt him with my Thatcherism) is sure that Clinton will get the Democrat nomination because the Democrat establishment can't abide the thought of Obama. Why? because Obama owes them nothing - he's made it on his own, as President he would not be under their direction - geez, he might even appoint a Republican or two to his Administration! But the Clintons are creatures of the Democrat establishment, so they'll wheel and deal to ensure Hillary's nomination.
Verity
January 10th, 2008 5:32pm Report this commentI wouldn't be so sure that Obama has made it on his own just because he is not beholden to the trade unions. There are other entities to be beholden to that are immensely wealthier than any trade union.
TGF UKIP
January 10th, 2008 5:45pm Report this commentSarf Lunnon, your mate's hypothesis seems eminently sensible, plausible and logical and while these small states have been the centre of attention, the Clinton machine will have been whirring away in the big states ready for Super Tuesday. That said I don't think it matters who the Democrats select, I think either of them will be beatable by McCain, Romney or Giuliani.
Peter Charnley.
January 10th, 2008 11:08pm Report this commentAs one American political commentator stated recently (name not to hand and I am paraphrasing), 'Although receiving a lot of votes from Democrats for the nomination, Hillary Clinton is so unpopular with such a large proportion of the American electorate that, from the perspective of intelligent, politically street-wise Democrats, she would be fatally flawed for their party in a presidential election'.
gop in singapore
January 11th, 2008 8:20am Report this commentHmm it seems a simpler explanation is that you and the media were wrong because you are in the tank for Obama.
Clearly the US Media is.
Robin Parr
January 11th, 2008 7:51pm Report this commentOne interesting theory as to why the polls in NH were wrong is that they the polls were actually responsible for the tactical voting which took place. Try this for size. Romney was hated by several of the influential news papers in the State. Romney had run nasty attack ads and as a result he was very unpopular with many independent "swing" voters and the word was out to stop Romney at all costs. Many of these independent voters were planning to vote for Obama but seeing the polls gave him a seeemingly overwhelming lead they felt that it was more important to stop Romney than vote for a candidate who seemed to have it made already. This theory is supported by numerous polls which suggested that huge numbers of voters only made their minds up on the last day and were much influenced by the polls being heavily touted on all the TV networks. There is a nice follow up story as to the Clinton near tears story which may have influenced older women voters to vote for her and thus gave her "victory" . Well the lady who prompted the "tears scene" confirmed that she voted for Obama as his speech had reduced HER to tears
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