Will Rudy have the last laugh?
James Forsyth 7:17pm
Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign has, to date, been a damp squid. Despite dangling his toe in the water in Iowa he still finished an embarrassing sixth behind the fringe candidate Ron Paul. In New Hampshire, Giuliani came in outside the medal positions despite having tried to move his numbers with a series of TV ads. He isn’t really playing in South Carolina having accepted that another state his campaign once thought was promising for him won’t go for him. But amazingly, Giuliani still has a chance of winning the nomination.
If John McCain wins in South Carolina tomorrow, he’ll probably be the nominee. If not, things could break Rudy’s way. John McCain main challenger in South Carolina is Huckabee, who trails him narrowly in the polls and could well win if he succeeds in bringing new evangelical voters to the polls as he did in Iowa. Huckabee, however, is unacceptable to many small-government and hawkish Republicans because he raised taxes in Arkansas and is seemingly naïve when it come to foreign affairs. So if Giuliani could get into an effective one on one contest with him he would have a very good chance of winning.
Rudy is betting everything on winning Florida which is the next state to vote after South Carolina; he’s been camped out down there recently and advertising heavily. The thinking goes that if he can pull out a win in Florida he will be the candidate with momentum going into February 5th, when 21 states vote. The potential flaw in this thinking is that if McCain does triumph in South Carolina, he’ll likely win Florida too. But if Huckabee beats him there, McCain’s challenge will have suffered a major blow.
If Huckabee wins South Carolina and Giuliani Florida they will be the two competing front-runners going into February 5th and that’s a fight Giuliani can win.
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Comments
Drusilla
January 18th, 2008 8:01pmSurely a damp squid is the best kind of squid?
David Williamson
January 18th, 2008 10:15pmNo mention of Romney? All predictions have been wrong, so far - this seems like another one.
Tim
January 18th, 2008 11:06pmThis article is right on the money. It down to McCain or Rudy. Rudy should be the GOP nominee. Here are the reasons why: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/01/rudy_giuliani_should_be_gop_no.html P.S. It not too late to get behind Rudy. If he wins Florida he wins it all. Otherwise, you are stuck with McCain.
Miami Dave
January 18th, 2008 11:54pmI think its a shame Rudy didn't strut his stuff in all these opening events but he's not out of it yet. Lots of folks say his early lead in the polls was media buzz. But lets be honest, if he does take Florida, and there is clearly a situation where the delegate math is primary, Rudy may well have the last laugh.
Bobzof
January 19th, 2008 7:29amWhat's a damp sqid? Surely most sea creatures are damp after residing in the ocean.Methinks writer means a damp SQUIB - another example of lax journalism.What we need is a bit of zero tolerance [as extolled by Rudy himself]directed at untidy writers.
Trafalgar
January 19th, 2008 4:06pmBobzof: Lighten up. The nature of a blog is that we get news quickly and there's no editor to spell/idiot check. James: really enjoying your commentary on the US elections. Thanks for the constant updates.
Max Kaye
January 19th, 2008 5:45pmJames, Good report (squids notwithstanding). Please speak to the powers that be at the Coffee House to remove the awful 'Click here to read more' function. It's driving me crazy.
TGF UKIP
January 19th, 2008 6:14pmTrafalgar & Max Kaye- couldn't agree more, on all points. James - re "Click here to read more" ain't The Speccie heard of it ain't broke don't try to fix it? It's got less support than Peter Hain. Re Rudy, his problem, and the GOP's if he were the nominee, is all the stuff that keeps popping out of the New York woodwork. And the Clintons would ensure that it would keep popping out.
James Forsyth
January 19th, 2008 8:24pmApologies about the squid/squib cock up and thanks for the kind words. On Romney, I think he'll stay in but he seems to lack the popular support needed. Although, his money and organisation make him a serious player Best, James
warraich
January 20th, 2008 3:20amThanks for the great article. Go Ron Paul, Go UK Media :)
peter
January 20th, 2008 9:56amsquib is a kind of fire cracker