What South Carolina changes

The sheer scale of Barack Obama’s win here in South Carolina is worth reflecting on. In a three candidate race featuring a native son and a former first lady with both nigh on 100 percent name recognition and a popular former two-term president campaigning for her Obama got 55 percent of the vote. For every vote cast for Hillary Clinton, Obama received two.

After a week in which race has been an uncomfortably prominent issue in the campaign, this result offer real hope in a state where the battle flag of the Confederacy—a racist symbol if ever there was one—still flies on the grounds of the State Capitol. Encouragingly, Obama won 52 percent of the non-white vote among under 30s. It says something about the state of racial progress in America, which to be sure is not fast enough, that Obama could do this in an election where there were blacks voting who were denied their democratic rights upon reaching the age of majority by the racially loaded voting tests that existed until the voting rights acts was passed in 1965.

Hillary Clinton must remain the favourite to win the Democratic nomination as Obama only has nine days to persuade voters in twenty-two states to support him. But Hillary’s advantage is far narrower than anyone expected it to be 24 hours ago. Also, Bill Clinton’s crass and racially insensitive comments will ensure that the Clintons lose another news cycle. The hopeful thing for Obama is that he doesn’t need to win on February fifth or even match Hillary state for state. If he stays within touching distance, he will be in good shape as the contests that follow are on favourable turf for him. 

Obama’s speech tonight showed how he intends to cast the debate. It is the future versus the past with the Clintons representing the old politics and Obama the new. It is a bold and audacious strategy. But this morning it has a far greater chance of success than it did a week ago thanks both to the margin of Obama’s victory and the actions of the Clintons.