Break free from the spending shackles
Fraser Nelson 8:50am
William Rees-Mogg yesterday added his voice to the many suggesting that, now the economic outlook has changed, so should the Tories’ daft proposal to match Gordon Brown’s spending pledges. Iain Martin, Iain Dale and my good self are just a few who argue that now Brown has been found out, the Tories should think twice about copying him.
Cameron is doing nothing original in aping Brown’s spending plans. This pledge was made by Portillo in 2001 and Letwin in 2004. If the electorate didn't want it then, why should they this time? Or, to borrow a Cameroon analogy, if voters didnt want ham and cheese in the last two elections why would they go for more ham and more cheese now? A new approach is required. Meanwhile Sarkozy is talking about a five-year spending freeze and almost every other developed country is adapting for the 21st century by “expenditure reform” (see this pdf primer from the ECB, of all people). Britain, once a pioneer of spending reform, has become a museum where the virtues of big state spending remains an orthodoxy. In Osborne’s defence, Brown’s current spending plan is his most modest since SR00 – it would (marginally) lower spending as ratio of GDP. But Osborne's call for a “triple lock on stability” and reducing the tax burden “over the cycle” doesn’t set the heather alight, as they say in Kirkcaldy.
The argument for copying Brown has always been to stop him saying "Tory cuts" at electon time. This strategy is based on the laughable idea that Brown fairly represents Tory policies. The last decade has shown he will say Tory cuts anyway - even if it's flatly untrue (take last PMQs). I have a high regard for Osborne, and suspect he’ll see this for himself. His pledge to mimic Brown’s ruinous plans expires with next year’s budget. Then, he’s free to do something the Conservatives in Opposition have not dared do since 1979: give the public more of their money back
P.S. ConservativeHome makes a compelling case here.
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Comments
Simon
February 4th, 2008 10:47amI think every Tory would love a bold approach on tax and spend. Certainly, Brown's plans are laughable now. But I am not convinced there is an widespread desire for such an approach amongst the voters Dave needs to attract. That ICM poll in yesterday's Telegraph showed there was no desire. I accept there is little logic to it but I think when voters are feeling the pinch they would worry more receptive to Brown's lies about Tory spending plans. I prefer to leave it to GO's judgement. By the way I think there must be something up with the comments section - I am sure you enjoy all the supportive posts I send!
mart
February 4th, 2008 11:36am"If the electorate didn't want it then, why should they this time?" In 2001 and 2005 elections it was the Tories the electorate didn't want. In benign economic circumstances, such as prevailed at those times, people are unlikely to throw out the governing party. Doesn't much matter what the policies are. But I'll "concede" this much: if the opposition's message contains many hints of "actually we rather like what the government is doing so we will copy their policies" then there's no difference, no choice required, no need to vote.
David
February 4th, 2008 12:36pmErm, you've missed the obvious that the electorate did vote for Labour's spending plans, by voting in Labour......... "This strategy is based on the laughable idea that Brown fairly represents Tory policies." No, it's based on the not so laughable idea that the media seem to think it does and so do a lot of the electorate.
Tiberius
February 4th, 2008 12:49pmFraser, New Labour has always misrepresented the Tories' tax policies as cuts. The problem has been that the electorate has believed them. For this reason it made no sense for Cameron's Tories to offer tax cuts before the next election. However, if the electorate is now ready to listen to the Tories without pre-judging them, then let's take some radical steps on tax by all means. Does the Tories' research show that they can now talk about tax cuts in the same way that they can now talk about immigration? As a "tortoise" myself (while remembering yesterday's ST poll showing the Tories behind Labour on the economy), I can see that the timing may well now be right because Brown has made himself look so ridiculous with his Soviet style production stats, that I can't believe many people listen or believe much of what he says, while his Cabinet couldn't punch through tissue paper.
Jon Pourreau
February 4th, 2008 1:17pmIf the Tories revert to tax cutting they will lose the confidence of the electorate.As the economy becomes weaker, voters will become more likely to take the 'Better the devil you know' approach. They are still likely to settle for another 5 years of Gordon Brown if the majority continue to believe that the improved living standards experienced over the last decade are a result of his economic policies, rather than a combination of low inflation imported from China and Eastern Europe and a strong economy inherited from the Tories. George Osborne needs to continue demonstrating a balanced, low risk, mature approach to the management of the economy, which will slowly woo the electorate back to his party.
TGF UKIP
February 4th, 2008 7:05pmFraser, your defence and support of Dave is very touching and, of course, entirely misplaced. Indeed, I think you are only too well aware, but instinctively loath to declare publicly, that Dave is no real conservative but a good old fashioned Tory SocDem in the Douglas Hurd mould who is entirely comfortable with a high taxing high spending regime. That's the fundamental reason why he makes no conservative arguments on the economy or anything else.
Joanna, Cheshire
February 4th, 2008 8:16pmInstead of the Tories offering nothing but tax cuts for the rich at the next election, or whenever they decide to enlighten the public with their policies, they should ignore the right wingers and focus on giving money back to average or just below average earners. I also think that an agenda of ending the culture of 'rewarding failure' would resonate with the public. I am in particular referring to incidents like the NHS chief exec who got a massive pay off despite the hospital she was in charge of being filthy and patients dying becasue of it and immigration officials picking up their bonus despite failing to meet deportation targets.