Are the Tories doing well enough?
James Forsyth 12:20pm
Even David Cameron’s most enthusiastic backers in the 2005 leadership contest might have thought it unrealistic to imagine that after a little over two years in the job he would have opened up a nine point lead over Labour. But despite having done this, Cameron is still plagued by the question of whether the Tories should be further ahead.
Certainly, the Tories haven’t batted Labour out of the game and they are doing nowhere near as well as Tony Blair was in the mid-1990s. However, as Andrew Rawnsley reminds us in The Observer this morning, that was an exceptional time. Rawnsley, though, thinks that the Tories can not become the government in waiting until they give the electorate a firmer idea of what they would do once they are in power. To put it another way, they have won permission to be heard and now they need to say something.
This criticism isn’t totally fair. There are some impressive Tory policies; notably on education. But it is hard to say how Britain would be different after a term of Cameron government. The tactical need now is for some more boldness. The old caricatures of conservatism have been largely slain by the whole decontamination process—Tory high command must be encouraged by how little damage the Conway affair appears to have done to the party’s standing—and the Tories can not speak out without fear of being shouted down. This does not mean that it is time to return to the old tunes. But the Cameroons should be unafraid of being true to their instincts as they have been on education to good effect.
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Comments
Cogito Ergosum
February 17th, 2008 2:43pmNo education policy, tory or other, will succeed in this country until we recognise the statistical reality of children's ability. Half of them are below average, and about 17% are more than one standard deviation below average. Similarly about 17% are sufficiently above average to appreciate an academic education.
This innate ability is the same throughout life. You can stifle a bright child in a comprehensive, but you cannot turn a dull child into a genius.
In accordance with trhe figures above, schools should be planned in groups of six: four midstream schools, one grammar, and one special needs. Each school could then run classes of sensible size on a modest intake of a hundred pupils per year.
Schools would then be a sensible size to establish discipline and their own ethos.
TrevorH
February 17th, 2008 3:24pmoh, do shut up with your drivel for gawds sake. We have an economic crisis to get through first ... are you looking for an election winning tax giveaway budget by any chance? are you expecting reposessions to decrease, inflation to fall? Easy money still gives people a false sense of prosperity at the moment, if labour is failing then the teeth still have to bite.
Oscar Miller
February 17th, 2008 3:26pmNot this old chestnut again. Last September when Brown had a lead similar to the current Conservative lead, the press continually taunted Cameron with the line "Did you underestimate Brown?". Then came the bottled election and in a couple of weeks Cameron had turned the tables on Labour. A new line then emerged - "Considering the government's woes the Tories aren't doing well enough". All of a sudden the Conservatives were supposed to be performing like New Labour in the nineties, even tho' the historical circumstances are profoundly different (something political pundits seem unable to grasp). Despite that fact, this line has become the new straw to clutch at. First Gordon Brown tried to relaunch himself this year and failed. Then there was much excitement that Derek Conway might have revived the nation's fears of Tory 'sleaze' and that the polls were about to turn Labour's way. They didn't. In fact the post Conway polls actually showed an upswing in Conservative fortunes - presumably because Cameron had more media coverage than usual and the public like him when they see him. The latest YouGov poll puts the Conservative lead one point higher than it was last month - an improvement Mr Rawnsley not a decline. No matter - I suspect 'the Conservatives should be doing better' mantra is going to be Mr Bean's comfort blanket all the way to election defeat. BTW who decides what poll leads "ought" to be - do some people believe there is a polling god?
David
February 17th, 2008 6:29pm"Half of them are below average," You don't say......
TGF UKIP
February 17th, 2008 6:53pmGood news too for the Tories that elsewhere a Populus poll is also showing them with a 9% lead. However, given that other recent polls have shown leads as tight as 2 and 5% perhaps the Dave cheerleaders had better wait another couple of weeks for a few more polls to really get a feel of things. Looking at the YouGov poll figures though, one of the focal problems of the Cameron Tory Party screams out - the geographical imbalance. Tory lead in London, massive Tory lead in rest of South East, and in the rest of the country either neck and neck or Labour lead (predictably massive in the Scottish Soviet.) Very handy for Gordon for his political problem to be so tightly geographically contained. Labour's southern marginals can expect to do very well out of the taxpayer in the next couple of years. Pity isn't it that Dave is so irredeemably Metropolitan and Home Counties.
Tiberius
February 17th, 2008 7:12pmA very good post, Oscar, and yes we do repeatedly have the same arguments. But that is now the essence of 24 hour news (until a new Story breaks).
Cogito Ergosum
February 17th, 2008 8:54pmTo David 6:29pm
Yes, I do say. But rare is the politician, journalist, or educator who really accepts it. We still have to pay huge taxes for the sentimental nonsense that any child can do well with good teaching.
There is a serious statistical argument behind what I wrote. But until a PPE degree becomes Physics, Politics, and Engineering there is little hope for informed political leadership on this issue.
Roy
February 18th, 2008 12:48amThey/he hasn't grasped the nettle yet. It does take a little courage!! Ask any country kid.
Diablo
February 18th, 2008 1:57amAm I becoming a Conservative "seer"? http://devilinthedetail.blogspot.com/2008/02/time-for-real-tory-launch.html
Fergus Pickering
February 18th, 2008 5:12amEverybody says that the Tories need policies. What policies did Blair have when he had these huge double digit leads you all go on about? I know it's a long time ago and a lot of journalists were still at school but come on, tell me what policies Blair had? ducation, education, education! Ah ys. There was that one. Invade Iraq. Ah, but he hadn't thought of that one then, had he? Can you think of anything else. Being a regular guy. That was certainly a policy.
THX1138
February 18th, 2008 2:57pmFergus- TB had a policy of not being the Tories, looks like not being New Labour isn't good enough to open up the those kind of poll lead. I's not that we aren't sick of them we are, just that most ordinary folk can't stand Dave Snooty & pals either. Ditch the toffs & you would 15 points clear.
Chris Allsobrook
February 19th, 2008 8:23am"We still have to pay huge taxes for the sentimental nonsense that any child can do well with good teaching." - they could surely do better than they would with bad teaching
englandism.com
February 19th, 2008 10:08amThe Conservatives are a brand without a product. Their only USP is not being the Labour party and this, alone, accounts for Dave's apparent success. I notice that the LibDems are up for a federal UK parliament so I expect Clegg to hoover up the disaffected English Conservative vote.