Killer Cable strikes again

David

When the nationalisation cocks up (as it is already doing over Granite), I wonder whether there will be any plaudits to be gained from having called for the wrong policy from the start?

mike

quite - Cable's is a high risk strategy with short term gains. Osborne may well end up in the equivalent position to Charlie Kennedy over the Iraq Waq, i.e. the only one to have said it would be a disaster and voted against it.

Fraser Nelson

David/Mike - point taken. I'm abs sure nationalisation will be a disaster (although, in my view, it had become an unavoidable one). And perhaps GO has decided that the NR boomerang will hit the gvt when he's in No11. So I agree with your points: it may look bad now, but when the time comes to make the write-downs it will be important to say "we opposed this at the time." My wider point is that VC has shown the way to beat Brown is to give a more credible and easier to understand version of events - to sound more plausinle than the gvt rather than attacking them.

Mike

Agreed - the Tory strategy should go long - to oppose and wait for it to go badly wrong as it will. Vince may not be looking quite so sage then. This government couldn't run a whelk stall, what makes you think they can run Northern Crock?

hez51

Think you mean Alan Johnson!

hez51

Think you mean Alan Duncan!

Owen

While more informed than the others Vince Cable showed that no politician is on top of this by Granite not being involved. The thing that is most shocking is that the Tories run a 'City Circle' group with bankers and many senior bankers attended the Black and White Ball recently. So why haven't they talked to them. It is clear from the Tory messages that they do not really understand the issues and markets. PS I welcomed your point last night just reminding everyone that a year ago Northern Rock was seen as a progressive firm punching well above its weight.

Matt

Did the Lib Dems miss a trick going for youth over Vince Cable's obvious talent?

mart

The big thing for me is point 4 (and point 5 which is similar). Cable has made measured statements in the media, supplying explanations instead of sour grapes. And one needn't be disrespectful of Mr Osborne to say that he does not command much authority on these issues. He was available to the media on Sunday night, and talked a good talk, but it all sounded very wise-after-the-event. I take your view (in the comments above) that nationalisation had come to seem inevitable. Given the level of guarantees the government had already provided from public finances, how could they allow the attendant income from that risk to be enjoyed mainly by private owners? People are talking about the prospect of a nationally-owned bank disturbing the operation of a fair market in banking. But how is it so much a better alternative to have private owners backed by government guarantees? That seems a strangely hybrid scheme - I don't understand how it could be any better than nationalisation. Returning to the Tories, IMHO they should drop the sour grapes (they didn't make a persuasive case of their own in the last few months, so they should not complain now) and accept this and "move on" the same way that they have had to accept the minimum wage etc. and the fact that it is not something that can be altered.

William Norton

The key thing about Northern Rock which Cable grasped before anyone else is that it didn't matter so much what your policy was as that you had one quickly and told everyone what it was. Nationalisation is only inevitable because we've got to February: back in September there were far more options. Darling/Brown fiddled about trying all of those different options, often simultaneously, wasting time, and the Tory approach (so far as it can be worked out) was to wait for Darling to do something and then oppose it - which is a tactic, but it isn't a strategy.

THX1138

You were very underwhelming on QT last night.

Tim Bennett

The Tories were set on this embarrassing course from the moment in September that they unreservedly supported the Bank of England credit lines extended to Northern Rock. From that point onwards the Cable "least worst option" line has been consistent, persuasive and manifestly true. The Conservative 2 page "position" on Northern Rock hurried out on Monday morning betrayed a lack of understanding of the situation and a tendency to political point scoring that has afflicted Osborne's handling of the matter. Philip Hammond is an ineffective spokesman who clearly has little experience of financial matters if the Granite episode provided so much of a surprise to him. In debate, Yvette Cooper all to easily brushed away the Conservative front bench team. The Tory elders of Clarke, Lawson, Redwood and (to an extent) Lamont have provided the only thoughtful contributions to the debate from the opposition (Cable aside).

Fraser Nelson

Hez51, d'ooh. It's changed. THX1138, Sorry to have disappointed you.

Tom

To be fair to the Tories, is it possible to have a policy on Northen Rock without seeing the books? The Government received £millions worth of advice from Goldman Sachs and the Treasure before reaching a decision. When companies do takeovers there is a similarly long period of due diligence, you wouldn't expect them to announce a strategy before that process is completed.

mart

THX1138: In defence of our man, it must be practically impossible to marshal sensible thoughts and arguments in such an arena. Besides this, the format is suited well to grandstanding politicians, whom the chairman typically (like last night for example) gives a great majority of the airtime at the expense of journalists on the panel.

Anan

Credit where credits due Fraser. Your point, which you constantly say here, that "in a global credit crisis why have we only had a run on the bank and bank collapse in this country?" was expressed very well yesterday and clearly laid all the blame at the old Bowser's (Brown's) feet. Good one!

What really annoyed me was the union man lecturing everyone on the panel, that it is the duty of the nation, and the right of the people of North, that the rest of us bail out a failed bank "of the people". I wonder if he will have the same sentiments if NatWest or Shell or British Airways collapses and requires nationalisation in order to continue functioning. I doubt it.

Mike Smithson

Fraser - the reason that Brown is "back in the lead on economic management" is because of the way the latest Populus poll was carried out. The sample was not past vote weighted which normally means a heavy pro-Labour bias. As a default do not give any credence to a political phone poll where this adjustment has not been made. It cannot be compared with the Populus poll earlier in the month. All was explained last night in my piece on Politicalbetting.

Fraser Nelson

Thank-ee, Mart/Anan. I had another figure I didn't get the chance to use: every day there are 250 redundancies in the banking sector and every day 550 jobs created. So jobs going in failed companies is part of this job-creation process. Tho THX does have a point: broadcasting is a skill (esp. things like talking lots, butting in) and one I dont pretend to have mastered...

Tom Quinnen

I realise that this is off topic but after all the complaining about the false statistics Labour and Brown use to defend their position you missed an absolute sitter last night Fraser. Ruth Kelly started trotting out the usual rubbish about how due to Labours brilliant management of the economy we had low inflation which meant the BoE could lower interest rates. The moment she started the sentence I sat back waiting for you to jump on her answer . But you didn't say a thing and in the end Vince Cable took her to task. Seems a shame to have missed a golden opportunity to practice what you are preaching so regularly and hold the govt accountable for deliberately misleading the country.

Fraser Nelson

Tom, Kelly said "why can we cut interest rates when not a single other country in Europe can?" I replied "because we're not in the Eurozone" and then Cable came in about inflation. So he beat me to it. And yes, a shame, as I'd have loved to have get started with a little list.

Nicholas

The "union man" was Derek Simpson. Obnoxious. Whined about political point scoring and then spent most of the programme trying to score points against the Conservatives. He is a man who likes to have the last word and was given it too. Fraser did alright bearing in mind the way the air time was being hogged, not least by Dimble's time wasting announcements about past and future programmes and websites - all of which could be more usefully conveyed in an on screen strapline.

TGF UKIP

Mike Smithson's qualifications are relevant to the analysis but almost completely irrelevant to the politics - it's the headline wot counts. The important thing is really how close the issue is despite all the Government cock-ups. The last You Gov poll in the Daily Browngraph showed, if my memory is correct, a 6% Tory lead on the issue. While that may well be more accurate it's still pathetic and a devastating commentary on Osborne's performance as Shadow Chancellor. In your analysis, Fraser, you identify parts of the problem in points 3 & 5 - Osborne's adolescent appearance,voice and lightweight point scoring. (A look at the Redwood website on this issue demonstrates how a more serious and heavyweight Conservative political figure may have tackled this issue.) The present narrowness of the gap between the main parties on this focal point though must again be contrasted with the pre-97 situation. Labour could polularize and politicize economic differences but this is quite beyond Osborne. The best example of this was Labour's policy of selling Northern Rock bonds to the institutions. This was devastatingly encapsulated by Anatole Kaletsky - "We all know about using our Mastercard to pay off the Visa debt." Crisp, to the point and understandable to every voter and quite beyond Boy George. The biggest city mystery of the day, though, is why so many of the silly buggers were daft enough to club together to contribute half a million under-declared quid to the Osborne "Office." But you still rate him, Fraser. Curiouser and curiouser. BTW is it Ronald Reagan Jnr's fault that you have temporarily lost your snap and crackle?

Fraser Nelson

TGF, I do still rate him - I know critics say he's a shrill student debater but remember who stopped the general election. In my opinion he fell down on NR by focusing too much on attack lines, and not on giving a clearer explanation about what's going on. Like Cameron, he learns fast - and next time (and there will be a next time), he'll be trying to get some Cable/Kaletsky clarity into this. But GO defo has the ability to sparkle: remember who stopped the Oct election?

TGF UKIP

Fraser, you are, as usual, being far too kind to Dave's gang. "He learns fast" - not very fast it would seem as he's now been in the job for over two years and despite the many Government cock-ups, despite the mounting borrowing, deteriorating finances and voter's increasing expectations of hard times, Labour and the Tories are still virtually neck and neck in most polls on the economics issue. As for stopping the October election, well perhaps, but I'm not convinced. Indeed, Gordon might even have been counting the IHT ruse a plus for him so easy would it have been for him to skewer Osborne and the Tories over the non-dom tax figures. Your boys are, I believe, in deepening political trouble. They are fast losing headway and if they can't use the Budget to re-gain momentum even you will have to start facing up some unpalatable truths about them.

Fraser Nelson

TGF, I agree with you more than I would like to. My favourite fact that I bore people with in parties now is that Blair averaged - averaged - a 25-point lead over Major and DC is lucky to get a third of that. It's dismal. I alternate between enthusiasm and despair with the Tories: one day they come up with a revolutionary school policy, the next they're back to bleating that non-sequiteur "stability before tax cuts". They don't seem nearly as ready for gvt as Blair's lot in Feb95 (when Gallup had them 40 points ahead) and its not as if things can get much worse for the gvt. But I hope that Cameron's better angels will shout down his hoodie-hugging demons. I admit the momentum we saw in Blackpool has not been continued. Where we differ is that I believe DC, GO et al can switch gear and finally beat Brown. It's just that they are taking it a far more leisurely pace than makes me comfortable.

TGF UKIP

Fair enough, Fraser, I think we both have the same feeling that it's a great pity, and would be in their own interests, if they started being conservatives and the party really being the Conservative Party. As I've posted before you, at least, from your proximity, do know and can judge the essential characters behind their public masks and I respect your judgement. The most unfortunate thing, though, is that so firmly have they nailed their ultra green, ultra pc, Blue Labour colours to the mast in the past two years that any u-turn now onto the one true path would produce mainly hoots of derision from politicos and journos alike. If they're going to try an oil tanker turn then the Budget would seem the most likely starting point otherwise it begins to look like Lucky Lucky Gordon. Just as well 2010 is along way off in politics!

THX1138

TGF Fraser Great Exchange that's why I read this blog. You weren't so bad on QT really, it must be really scary. Not sure joke was so clever about your huge W11 mortgage sounded a bit LDN elite to me.