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Monday, 13th July 2009

A burden for future governments

Peter Hoskin 6:33pm

If you haven't already, it's well worth reading Robert Peston's analysis of the first annual report from UKFI, the government's banking wing.  There are plenty of fascinating titbits in there, but this passage on how long it will take the government to sell its shares in Lloyds and RBS rather jumped out at me:

"As the annual report makes clear, flogging perhaps £100bn of stock in Lloyds and RBS - which is what the holdings may easily be worth in a couple of year - can't be done overnight.

That's just too big a mouthful for investors to swallow quickly.

How can I be certain? Well in the entire history of Europe, there have only been three occasions when banks (or indeed any companies) have sold shares worth more than £10bn to commercial investors in a single exercise (they were the share sales by HSBC, RBS and UBS all carried out in 2008 and 2009).

Which is not to say that the RBS and Lloyds stakes can't be flogged, but just that it could take quite a few years."

Here at Coffee House we frequently comment about the dire public finances the next government will be stuck with.  But it's worth remembering that, as part that fiscal inheritance, they'll also have to engineer some of the most complex privatisation deals in history.  The Tories could be forgiven for looking forward with dread.

Filed under: Banks (8 more articles) , Conservatives (294 more articles) , Finance (15 more articles) , UK politics (609 more articles)

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Verity

July 13th, 2009 6:45pm Report this comment

I am sorry to note that the Speccie's infatuation with Americanisms is now taking root in Pete's mind. (It all started with James Forsythe.)

"There are plenty of fascinating tid-bits ...".

No, Pete, there are plenty of fascinating tit-bits. As in tiny amounts, such as a blue tit can eat.

Victorian American prudishness is responsible for changing it into "tid bits", which makes no sense as there is no such thing as a tid to take a bit.

Pete Hoskin

July 13th, 2009 6:48pm Report this comment

Verity: a geniune mistake, and duly corrected!

Pete Hoskin

July 13th, 2009 6:50pm Report this comment

P.S. Thank you - nice to know where the word came from.

TomTom

July 13th, 2009 6:51pm Report this comment

That is assuming Angela Merkel is wrong when she said in a recent speech that the QE programme being pursued by Britain and the US might well cause a repetition of the banking collapse within a decade because they had failed to reform the banking structure.

Lloyds like B of A with Merrill was forced into a suicide merger; and Lloyds like RBS was destroyed by a merger too far and became a bank 'too big to fail' without taxpayer guarantees.....it could happen all over again

David Ossitt

July 13th, 2009 6:56pm Report this comment

Gordon Brown's legacy; the bastard.

pat

July 13th, 2009 7:06pm Report this comment

couldn't they just drip feed these shares into the market starting from now?

Ian C

July 13th, 2009 7:17pm Report this comment

There is a real built in conflict of interest in this whole sorry mess.

1) The banking cartel, at best, exploited the UK consumer to become the desirable investment shares they were and which were before being wiped out by the Credit Crunch and eg the Lloyds takeover of BoS. For them to return to being such a 'desireable investment' and thus able to repay the national investment in them they will need to bleed the consumer as they did before.

2) If they are allowed to become as profitable again by the same means as before, can you imagine the re-electability of the Prime Minister who permits it?

So they will not become saleable unless value is extracted by other means - that means being broken up and sold off in smaller chunks. No wonder Barlcays fought hard to retain their independence.

Peter from Maidstone

July 13th, 2009 8:14pm Report this comment

Actually it would seem Verity is wrong. The Concise Oxford Dictionary of Etymology says..

titbit: delicate or toothsome morsel XVII; interesting item XVIII. Earliest form tyd bit, i.e. tid, dial. word equiv. to nice, + BIT2.

Therefore the form tidbit is the earlier and more correct.

TomTom

July 13th, 2009 8:29pm Report this comment

couldn't they just drip feed these shares into the market starting from now?

Of course they could which is why UKFI announced they had lost $20 billion in value in the past year....you suggest the taxpayer bits the bullet and takes a $20 billion hit plus wiping out the pension funds and shareholders still holding Lloyds and RBS shares ?

Why not go the whole hog and socialise all bank accounts and savings ?

Jim

July 13th, 2009 9:20pm Report this comment

There is a certain lack of joined up thinking here, as well as an inability to look a year into the future.
We have had several posts on the massive cuts needed by a future government have we not? 25% is a figure chucked about. This means a whole lot of sacked public servants, which means lots of repossessed houses, which means massive bank losses.
Theses banks are all bust, their shares are worth 0. But feel free to delude yourself if that's what you wish.

Verity

July 13th, 2009 9:32pm Report this comment

Hello, Pete! Thanks for the gracious response. There are a couple of other overly-sensitive American usages of a similar type, but they have escaped my mind.

Verity

July 13th, 2009 9:35pm Report this comment

I've just remembered another one: Americans will not refer to a male hen as a cock. They call them roosters. If you innocently referred to a rooster as a cock, the blood would drain out of their faces.

(Apologies for the O/T.)

TrevorsDen

July 13th, 2009 9:45pm Report this comment

Has Verity developed a hitherto unrecognised sense of irony - or is she just a pain in the bum?

PS can we get Gordon Brown to offer his best wishes to the Australian Cricket team?
I can't help thinking he and Ricky Ponting would thoroughly enjoy a dinner together, they have so much in common.

On topic - Todays Telegraph has a doom-laden economic prophecy from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5811343/Europe-digs-its-economic-grave-while-the-ECB-answers-to-no-one.html

TrevorsDen

July 13th, 2009 9:50pm Report this comment

A people's MBE for 'Peter from Maidstone' - at the very (or verity) least.

bill

July 13th, 2009 9:57pm Report this comment

Phew! Verity put us right on Americanisms too. Where would we be without her?

Nevermind the content of the article...

Thanks Verity. You incessant comments are what makes the Spectator the great publication it is. NOT!

Verity

July 13th, 2009 10:06pm Report this comment

Peter from Maidstone - Thank you! I didn't know that! (Although Eric Partridge does not agree with you. Also, you note that tyd is dial. but what dialect? It has an Old English ring to it, in a sense. The d could have been an eth.)

However, you could be right. The American word for Autumn is Fall, which I thought for the longest time was strictly an American word in response to the blaze of falling leaves in New England, where they were then settled.

Then I read that Fall is from Shakespeare's time, and we abandoned it and took up Autumn, but the Americans, having left England while it was still in common usage, have simply continued with it. There are quite a few words like that, that originated in Britain where they also died out, but have been preserved in American usage.

(Sorry to intrude.)

The Laughing Cavalier

July 14th, 2009 8:18am Report this comment

In Bowyer's biography of Brown Peston is referred to as a man who could be counted on to put the Brown message out. Do you really want to rely on this No. 10 mouthpiece, the man who caused a run on the banks in September 2008 with an indiscrete broadcast? One has often wondered if this was at the behest of No 10 so as to make their nationalisation inevitable - and cheaper

Rainer Unsinn

July 14th, 2009 8:42am Report this comment

ZaNu Labour are making (or have made) themselves unelectable for at least a generation.

I'm sure that they'll be happy to know that, when they finally get back into Government, they'll still have the pleasure of paying off the the debts that they've caused, this time around.

Tony

July 14th, 2009 9:15am Report this comment

T. F. HOAD. "titbit."
titbit delicate or toothsome morsel XVII; interesting item XVIII. Earliest form tyd bit, i.e. tid, dial. word equiv. to nice, + BIT2.
The Concise Oxford Dictionary of English Etymology. 1996.

oldtimer

July 14th, 2009 9:52am Report this comment

Peston got his information from a very clear presentation, available on-line here:
http://www.ukfi.gov.uk/releases/UKFI-Strategy-Press-Launch-13-July.pdf

This I find to be clearer and more readable than Peston`s blog. It sets out very clearly the problem UKFI will have in selling off stakes in these banks. It is easy to see that there could be conflict ahead between the UKFI,RBS, Lloyds and the next government (especially if it is a Conservative government) over the method and pace of getting money back for the taxpayer. One obvious way is to break up these mega banks into smaller, self sufficient and more marketable businesses ready for disposal. How will this sit with Hester`s bonus package?

Sean Haffey

July 14th, 2009 11:07am Report this comment

I feel like a lone voice in the wilderness here.

Peston is right to say that unloading shares of Lloyds will be an immense privatisation. However, it's wrong to conclude it will be impossible to do.

The Lloyds/HBOS merger was toxic (especially to Lloyds TSB shareholders) but today Lloyds shares are reasonably priced. Look a few years beyond the current economic misery and the Lloyds Banking Group marketshare and the careful banking model that Lloyds TSB had will make it likely that this will again be a very profitable bank. As the dividends return, so will demand for the shares. Careful sales of LBG shares in several tranches over the middle years of the next decade might well be a good earner for the government, which will desperately need them.

(Disclosure: I own about 14,000 shares in LBG bought over the last 9 months.)

The Bellman

July 14th, 2009 7:30pm Report this comment

O/T (well, off the main topic anyway): 'tyd' from the same root as 'tythe', as in 1/10th?

Verity

July 14th, 2009 9:24pm Report this comment

The Bellman, that occurred to me too, but only if the d as written in those days was an eth. But I think that whole tyd thing is a blind alley.

What about "tit for tat"? (1556). And titmouse. And blue tit. Tit seems to have meant tiny for a long time back in English. And I think the American usage of tid did not derive from tyd, but from Victorian prudishness.

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