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Sunday, 19th July 2009

Imagining Russia really will help squeeze Iran is naive

James Forsyth 12:46pm

The well-connected Jim Hoagland has a preview of how the Obama administration hopes the next year or so of its foreign policy will pan out. On Iran, still the biggest foreign policy challenge facing this administration, Hogland writes:

‘The next diplomatic trampoline for Obama is the G-20 summit [on September 24th], which he will host and hope to use to forge new multilateral approaches on Iran and Middle East peace, as well as on global economic recovery. The president came back from Europe this month with what one senior U.S. official described to me as "Russian and G-8 buy-in" to that concept.

"If the Iranians have not responded by then, the world should make clear to them they cannot stall indefinitely," says an official who knows Obama's thinking. "The summit is also the right moment for a global assessment of how much progress has been and can be made between Israel and the Palestinians."

Pittsburgh will be a moment of truth particularly for Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, whom Obama has wooed in hope of getting Moscow's support for imposing new U.N. sanctions on Iran. If it is not forthcoming, Obama's credibility will suffer.’

It strikes me that this approach is far more likely to fail than to succeed: Russia and the West’s interests are simply not aligned on Iran. Moscow might hint that it is willing to co-operate in order to secure other goals that are important to it. But it is hard to imagine Russia co-operating in the whole-hearted way that would be needed for diplomatic measures such as sanctions to make any difference to the Iranian leadership’s attitude to its nuclear programme.

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Susan Hill

July 19th, 2009 1:23pm Report this comment

This is where Obama's inexperience and naivety show. You`re spot on of course, Russia has its own agenda, always did, and if it joins the West in any enterprise it is always and everywhere with the same self-serving agenda. Obama should have realised when they didn`t line the Moscow streets cheering for him that this was not somewhere likely to be superficial enough to fall for his easy charm. He'll learn. Unfortunately it will not be only at his own expense.

porkbelly

July 19th, 2009 4:58pm Report this comment

By linking Iran policy with the Israel/Palestine issue Obama has set up Israel to be the scapegoat in case Iran stonewalls him (as seems all but inevitable). This might have the odd result of driving Israel closer to Russia as Putin will want to contain Iran while at the same time using it to keep Obama off-balance.

logdon

July 19th, 2009 4:58pm Report this comment

Obama may be supreme right now in affirmative action America, although the whiff of 'ever feel you've been cheated?'(copyright J Lydon)is growing as his taxes bite and his health care program falters.

He may be adored in sectors of Europe where he was treated almost as rock god by adoring crowds.

Why, even her indoors is feted by Mrs McBroon who, when not sucking up to new bessie buddy Naomi Campbell, shares her fashion tips, makeup knowhow and beauty secrets with the US First lady.

However in Russia where a more, er, pragmatic approach serves best, state officials are not so gushing in the adulation.

This is wincingly funny. Look at how his inner geek cannot comprehend what's going on. What shock to the system? He comes back for more, probably in the forelorn hope that the first snub was a ghastly mistake. It wasn't!

I hate to think of the terms he described those handshake refuseniks in when back in the cloistered bosom of Michelle.

Would perchance 'white' conjoined with 'bastard' be amongst the epithets?

The offending clip is about four down.

http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/

Zak

July 20th, 2009 1:08am Report this comment

Russia never was and I think never will be on your side!Why?Simple- history tells All! Iran is just unlucky to have oil and gas(like Iraq).Iran is peacefull country and always was but you cant say that for so call"democratic west" which kill 20 and so millions people in "peace time" from 1945!the message is clear -if you got nothing to defend yourself you are death,your land will be stolen!every human shall live in peace but if they can not they drive for weapons (nuclear etc)too protect themself and is simple a MUST for them!Russia like to help but west has to change for good and they wont just roll with you till you change your way! In the near future a handfull of people (with new future weapons)will have power to kill half of planet.With Russia we can be safe- without them we will be finish sooner or latter!All the best!

Jez

July 20th, 2009 10:16am Report this comment

Zak.

I can see you argument but it does fall down with some scrutiny.

Iran sponsored/has strong links with Southern Iraqi Shia Arab Militia's that attacked British/Coalition forces.

Iran supports/funds Hizbollah, Hamas.

Iran's Ahmadinejad has told the World; (Israel)... "is about to die and will soon be erased from the geographical scene".

Although a sustainable and accuarate delivery system of a nuclear warhead may be some time off, the potential to distribute just the radio-active substances to extreme Jihadi/Insurgent/Terrorist entities is quite a possibility when you combine all the above information together.

Kuwait and The Kingdon of Saud is also very keen on curbing Irans nuclear ambitions also.

So it's not just the 'Imperialist West' trying to keep Iran down really, is it?

Jez

July 20th, 2009 11:55am Report this comment

Hi Zak,

(I hope the below maths adds up, time squeezed as at work)

If Iran leadership (and I emphasise on the word ‘leadership’ and not rank and file Iranians) were serious in pursuing a sustainable ‘revolutionary’ energy source only, then there are other sources for this, namely; Solar.

For example;

Cost of a nuclear power station; $11 to $17 Billion (to modern standards)

Old data; Average 200Mw (if that) produced per year (as technology will not be as advanced)

Enough to produce enough energy to power approximately 130,000 homes.

It would last 40 years tops.

Solar farms (from existing data):

A facility covering 2 square miles, costing $440 Million produces 45Mw per year.

The central Persian desert basin is approximately 225,000 square miles in size.

Put $5 Billion into developing a Solar facility and you would have;

22 to 25 square miles of solar units, producing approximately 500Mw of power, providing 330 to 350,000 homes with sustainable energy.

It would leave 224,975 of desert basin untouched and in 40 years this technology would be enhanced and widened with far more efficient systems.

It of course wouldn’t be as easy as all that- regarding design, development, maintainability etc -

but surely if this is what Ahmadinejad wants (e.g. sustainable energy), then would this actually be a far simpler and less belligerent avenue to go down than the present one?

logdon

July 20th, 2009 2:24pm Report this comment

Zac says, "In the near future a handfull (sic) of people (with new future weapons)will have power to kill half of planet.

I 've got news, Zac. Between Russia and the US there is enough nuclear capability to destroy a dozen planets. And has been since the Sixties.

And why has it not happened? After the Cuban Missile crisis both sides decided that MAD was enough. The existential threat of mutual destruction was sufficient without actually using them.

Nuclear proliferation transfers this deadly threat to nations with less to lose or a nihilistic mindset and can probably escalate it from the US/USSR post war sabre rattling to actual use.

Egypt has just sanctioned the passage of a number of Israeli nuclear submarines through the canal. Saudi has offered them use of airspace. Now why could that be?

Iran may have a civilised Persian heritage but post revolution that's been wiped away in favour of Islamic supremacism.

And in view of the deliberately suicidal ways of their military how can we assume that mindset does not permeate all the way up to Ahmadinajad?

He threatens Israel with annihalation. He knows that the second missiles are unleashed, a reciprocal launching will happen. Does he care?

His Seventh Imam fatality talks of armageddon. He, tragically for Iranians, believes it.

This is a whole new ball game and any western imperialistic rubbish is a complete non sequitur.

Nice try though, if it wasn't so boringly tendentious.

N

July 20th, 2009 4:37pm Report this comment

Well on a more simple fact than simple aligning of interests, why would Russia help the U.S. anyway? I believe the U.S. "beat" the Russians in the Cold War, and the U.S. was their biggest enemy than, i don't imagine the Russians have changed their minds since than and adopted a "forgive and forget" attitude.

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