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Wednesday, 22nd July 2009

Pakistan still doesn't realise what the real threat to it is

James Forsyth 7:46pm

The New York Times has been briefed by the ISI on the Pakistani perspective on the situation in Afghanistan. The paper’s distillation of what it was told, is depressing reading:

“Pakistani officials have told the Obama administration that the Marines fighting the Taliban in southern Afghanistan will force militants across the border into Pakistan, with the potential to further inflame the troubled province of Baluchistan, according to Pakistani intelligence officials.

Pakistan does not have enough troops to deploy to Baluchistan to take on the Taliban without denuding its border with its archenemy, India, the officials said. Dialogue with the Taliban, not more fighting, is in Pakistan’s national interest, they said.”

If the Taliban is to be defeated, it needs to be denied space to regroup and resupply on either side of the border. But that is not going to happen as long as Pakistan remains obsessed with the supposed threat from India.

The Pakistani military and government need to realise that the real threat to the Pakistani state comes from the Pakistani Taleban and other extremist groups not India. Maybe then, Pakistan can launch an effective counter-insurgency operation against these groups. 

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Ray

July 22nd, 2009 8:50pm Report this comment

One would have thought that a quiet word in some Indian's ear would persuade them in turn to have a quiet word in some Pakistani's ear that it is in the interests of both countries that Pakistan devote its efforts to crushing the Taleban.

Hysteria

July 22nd, 2009 8:54pm Report this comment

"The Pakistani military and government need to realise that the real threat to the Pakistani state comes from the Pakistani Taleban and other extremist groups"

But this rather assumes they have a world view similar to our own secular vision.

If in fact they share a similar religio-political perspective tending towards the fundamentalist view, then from their perspective they are operating rationally.

Gives us a bit of a problem of course.....

Gil

July 22nd, 2009 9:03pm Report this comment

James, you say:

'The Pakistani military and government need to realise that the real threat to the Pakistani state comes from the Pakistani Taleban and other extremist groups not India.'

Sorry, but doesn't the linked piece from the NYT actually say that Pakistan IS concerned with the Pakistan Taliban-albeit more than the threat from the Taliban in Afghan?

In other words, we can see that Pakistan has defined its national interest as it sees fit. It has made its bed and so we need to strengthen India, which I believe the US is doing at this time.

Pakistan is doomed from a Western perspective. It's too late to expect things to change in our favour there.

Dirty Euro

July 22nd, 2009 9:59pm Report this comment

ooh that looks painful. That guy in the black costume must have metal underpants.

Andrew

July 22nd, 2009 10:36pm Report this comment

Whilst I agree with you, foreign governments don't think and act like we do. Applying western common sense is sometimes futile. They govern from the heart, however misguided it may be.

Watch this clip from yesterdays Korean parliament for an example of these differences. The Wall Street Journal has an interesting video of the house decending into all out violence on live TV. And you thought PMQ's got heated...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124825738778771665.html

Field Marshal Eccles

July 22nd, 2009 11:18pm Report this comment

Perhaps the UK should send Richard Dawkins to explain to India, Pakistan, and the Taliban the futility of arguing about religion.

Well, it stands no less chance of success than any other proposal I have read about.

It would have to be us of course: the USA is too much in thrall to religious sympathisers.

Truth

July 22nd, 2009 11:22pm Report this comment

'Taliban in southern Afghanistan will force militants across the border into Pakistan'

For which would have happened if the Taliban had taken full control of Afghanistan for which India would be forced to support Pakistan in defence of it own boarders. India and Pakistan have a route cause to protect its citizens from violence and brute force.

Afghanistan has the right to be free, interwoven are those who not only fear change but do not follow the true light and path of Islam.

johnny come lately.

July 23rd, 2009 7:26am Report this comment

Perhaps this is why Johnson said he was not opposed to mass immigration.

The Government have obviously been told to expect an exodus of Pakistanis to The British Isles!!

I would think an emergency camp should be set up in Kenwood and Hampstead Heath for the millions that will flood into the country. Then, in all fairness,they should be taken in equal numbers, to every constituency where there is a Labour MP sitting!

It would only be fair.

King Tut

July 23rd, 2009 8:39am Report this comment

Truth - come again? didn't quite get the gist of your post.

boulay

July 23rd, 2009 8:41am Report this comment

so why does the US not publicly provide pakistan with a security guarantee against Indian agression so that Pakistan can be confident enough to reduce troops on border etc.

obviously this would require negotiation with India by the US to make sure they understand that this is not a hostile move on India etc.

Ruairidh

July 23rd, 2009 9:47am Report this comment

It is easy to overstate the support that Islamists have in Pakistan. Pakistan may not be a fully functioning democracy but they do have elections and the Islamists poll in lower numbers than the BNP get in the UK. They are a more serious force than the BNP though in that they use terrorist tactics to attack the central government and create fiefdoms in the ungoverned tribal areas but amongst most Pakistanis they have no support. That said I do agree that they represent the most serious threat to Pakistani national security and they should be cracked down on hard.

The fear of the threat from India is unfortunately entirely rational. They have after all been at war several times since partition. Furthermore the Pakistanis will know that their long policy of insurgency and terrorism in Kashmir against Indian rule has given the Indians a reason to invade. The legacy of which are groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyiba. When they launch terrorist atrocities like the one on Mumbai it is very difficult for India to know whether these were sanctioned by the ISI or not. Pakistan knows this and knows its control of these groups is weak. The risk remains therefore that LeT will one day go so far that India feels compelled to act.

Rapprochement under Musharraf did help but we are still a long way from trust. A simple solution could be a security guarantee for Pakistan from the US or NATO but this would be very problematic because in an incident like Mumbai the Pakistani state may be the aggressor. There is a chicken and egg problem developing here because getting Pakistan to the point where it can relax about India and divert resources requires groups like LeT to be shut down but they cannot be shut down until Pakistan diverts resources to doing so.

Jean Baker

July 23rd, 2009 2:55pm Report this comment

It was recently reported that Murdoch now owns the New York Times.

Indian Blogger

July 23rd, 2009 4:56pm Report this comment

It is amusing to read the (ignorant)self-congratulatory comments of some British. As if you are all enlightened, your country pursued holy pursuits in the subcontinent!!

British all along supported the Islamists, pre-independence era as a way of retaliation to secular nationalistic movment of Indian National Congress.

Post-independence, British and the USA propped a religious exclusivist state known as "Pakistan" and supplied military gadgets against a pluralistic democracy called India.

After India survived this onslaught still managed to stand on its feet now we are all allies. And you talk about India and Pakistan "fighting about religion".

Talk about hypocrisy.

Flemingcrag

July 23rd, 2009 5:02pm Report this comment

The real threat to Pakistan comes from the Madrassas that turn out the Taleban (student) daily. It is an open secret the funding for the Madrassas comes from Saudi Arabia and elements within the ISI are the conduit the money is filtered through.
If the Amwericans buy this India threat detracting from the war on the Taleban, then the ISI can continue to tick the stoopid box for American administrations.

Patrick

July 24th, 2009 7:12am Report this comment

For those who haven't seen it, the picture is the closing of the border between India & Pakistan near Lahore. It is a cross between a military parade, John Cleese's ministry of funny walks and a football match with both sides bussing in supporters to shout and jeer at each other over the border. What hope for reconciliation when this nightly pantomine continues?

logdon

July 24th, 2009 8:39am Report this comment

"The Pakistani military and government need to realise that the real threat to the Pakistani state comes from the Pakistani Taleban and other extremist groups not India."

Ah but the Taliban are Muslims.

They may be sons of bitches, but at least they're Pakistan's sons of bitches.

Read Jihadwatch for the gross sectarian discrimination against what remains of the Hindus in Pakistan.

It's far deeper than the rationality of the west and therefore rationality cannot explain it.

How else can, say, Mumbai be justified?

Muslims spared. Hindus and Christians slaughtered.

Then the Jews? Reserved for the worst in Nariman House where they were systematically tortured before death.

So that's two religions which they hate. And mercilessly persecute.

For a background read Charles Allen's, God's Terrorists which traces the Wahhabi movement's migration to India.

In the words of The Independent; 'A story of intransigence, hatred of modernity, millenial dreams, bloody massacres and invariably disappointed hopes.'

Says it all really.

ml

August 13th, 2009 10:48pm Report this comment

fact is fact you can not change it you people can not face honesty and you are wrong

'

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