How the Tories can break on through

David

"one of the big lessons of the US primary campaigns is that voters once more want to believe in something larger than themselves" US voters. You can't extrapolate from foreign political campaigns; the electorate of each country responds to its own situation. Pointing to how the US electorate is reacting provides no lessons for the UK any more than pointing to how the French electorate reacted.

mak

But isn't the general point true that a nation of people (any people) will react more positively to a leader who, frankly, has the "vision thing" - voters do not vote on the basis of statistics and policy detail, but react to broader appeals from leaders. I would point to examples such as Kennedy, Thatcher, Blair, Sarkozy, Benazir Bhutto (to an extent) to support this thesis. Obama's campaign fits this general concept - it is not an extrapolatin specifically from the US elections.

Nicholas

The Tories need to attack Brown's government more aggressively but more subtly. Rather than showcasing their own policies as an alternative, which are immediately stolen or misrepresented by a government devoid of any notion of truth, honour or fair play, they should concentrate on attack, using every possible means fair or foul. There is the growing seed that this government is so bad anything must be better and that is what the Tories need to capitalise on. They are not going to do it by setting themselves up as a target for New Labour and residual left wing scorn. The way to shift their reputation as the "nasty party" is to affix it firmly in the public mind that this description now belongs to New Labour.

Nick Kaplan

I would completely agree with Mak, the Tories need to be bold and emphasise that it is time for a change. The boldest move since Cameron became leader was the announcement on inheritance tax, and that went down a treat with most people. At the last election there was an interesting study; people were told a bunch of Tory policies (the 5 main manifesto pledges) and asked whether or not they supported them, the vast majority thought they were great ideas, until told they were told they were Tory proposals, at which point they began to have doubts. This goes to show the British people do want small, sensible, right-wing government. Now Cameron has decontaminated the brand he should push ahead with this kind of agenda. This strategy is not of course risk free; however, if they win power on such a platform they can introduce good policy that will really make a difference. If they win on a middle-ground softly softly platform, then they may as well not have power at all, and just let Brown keep stealing Tory proposals. Now the government is weak we should kick it when its down, and make the most of a good opportunity. If the electorate feel they can’t vote Labour then radical Tory policy (education and health reform, lower taxes, smaller state) becomes a viable option, after all Thatcher was able to make her radical reforms off the back of Labour unpopularity.

Diana

People are feeling the pinch. The Tories will gain more and more if they repeatedly attack the government's economic record and undermine GB's meaningless statistics. Inflation feels very high if you're not super rich. Also, they could be stronger on law and order - too much knife crime, not enough prisons, early release. The Home Secretary has handed this to them on a plate. You don't have to be a Tory to be hot under the collar about all that.

David

"I would point to examples such as Kennedy, Thatcher, Blair, Sarkozy, Benazir Bhutto (to an extent) to support this thesis." They don't, because you have to take into account the circumstances of their victories, not just treat them as individuals in isolation. What was the state of the country, to what and how did the electorate react, these and more have an effect on just what a successful campaign will be. You simply cannot say that what works in one country at a specific time applies for all and all time. There are far more variables in play.

David

"The boldest move since Cameron became leader was the announcement on inheritance tax, and that went down a treat with most people." That ignores the fact that it was specifically paid for (or put forward as such any way) by additional taxation elsewhere.

TGF UKIP

I completely agree with Nicholas and Nick Kaplan but there are problems. First of all the Tories appear to be incapable of mounting and maintaining a sustained attack particularly in the vital area of the economy which is why the polling on this issue is still so close despite all the Government cock-ups. Compared to Labour pre-97 this really is a lame and feeble Opposition with a highly questionable hunger for power. The second major problem is even more fundamental for them and it is how, after two years of running as Blue Labour, they could shift ground to a more populist, small government conservative agenda without hoots of derision all round. Currently, having lost the momentum back to Gordon they are in deepening political trouble and unless they can use the forthcoming Budget to mount an attack that resonates with voters, Gordon can feel increasingly comfortable. Coulson with his News of the World background should be able to get them to communicate in a more poular and populist way. One good example would be on the issue that James raises of the likely sceptical voter reaction to a pledge of a 5p tax cut. It can though be put another way - "Government expenditure for 2008 is scheduled to be £617 bn, or to put it a better way £36,000 for every household. Don't you think that we could find non-essential waste that would allow us to cut that expenditure by just 2.5% if it meant we could cut your income tax by 5p?"

Anan

Don't try going for the council estate vote - you won't get it no matter what you do because they won't vote Conservative in a million years. Stick to the middle ground and focus on being centre-right.

Tiberius

I agree with David. Iain Martin is stating a line which is recurrent and has been argued about a great deal on here, but I thought Alasdair Palmer's piece in today's ST added a bit of a different perspective on matters. We still have, in the main, a not-very-angry electorate, and even Northern Rock (£3,500 contribution per taxpayer) doesn't seem to have energized them. If Osborne had satisfied Iain Martin's criteria for (in his opinion) landing a blow on the Government, would it have made any difference to the public's take on the matter? Therefore, to take Iain Martin's cricketing analogy to its conclusion, the Tories should perhaps continue to bowl boring line and length on a pitch which is giving very little help to the bowlers. Eventually Brown will be caught back on his crease, although Cameron would probably want a spectacular caught-and-bowled.

TrevorH

Oh yawn - you lot really piss me off. Anybody remember the name of Angela Merkels shadow finance minister? It was Paul Kirchhof. Where is he now? Not finance minister - thats socialist Peer Steinbrück. Merkle started the last German election with a lead of 21 points, she ended it scrabbling around putting together a coalition. All thanks to the 'hare' like tendencies and tax policies of her finance spokesman. Really, is the world so short of people willing to make Ed Balls think every day is christmas that posters on these blogs have to invent more?

TGF UKIP

Tiberius, "a pitch which is giving very little help to the bowlers." Just how in the last five months could the pitch have been giving more help to the bowlers? For you Tories I would think observing the current Tory attack must be uncomfortably reminiscent of watching the treatment of the England bowling in the last Ashes series in Australia. Boy George and Harmison are strikingly similar if only in their effectiveness.

TGF UKIP

P.S. Nowt to do with this debate but could I commend to all Coffee Housers Iain Martin's splendid article in last Thursday's (21 Feb) Daily Telegraph "Britain's defence spending is a disgrace." Essential reading I promise. (www.telegraph.co.uk)

Tiberius

TGF; in my analogy, public opinion is the flat wicket. The Government are the batsmen (with Alistair Darling currently at the wicket with Brown, he's terrified of being run out).

Roy

The Tories can break through very easily. All they have do is promise to clear up the dreadful immigration mess. Promise to make the British Isle fit for the people of Britain again. Promise to clean up the inner cities, clamping down on crime and increase police numbers. Promise to send home all doubtful individuals who have arrived here. Be stricter in who is allowed in. You can't be nursemaid to the whole world. Promise to back out of the EU if member countries fail to pull together or don't fulfil their obligations. This is all they have to do to sweep all before them. The bold and simple answers. You can promise reconstruction of health education and social welfare till the cows come home but it will not win an election. The country needs a leader who can see the vista beyond the trees. Who can clean his fogged up lenses and see and feel the real needs and spirit of the country, to get the UK cleaned up and ready to go.

Fergus Pickering

I should think that a politician would know better than a journalist how to win an election, not because he is more intelligent but because it falls more within his area of expertise. And of course journalists always want people to be doing things because doing things is news.