Georgia on my mind
James Forsyth 4:54pm
Last August was dominated by Russia’s invasion of Georgia and two recent stories are reminders that this conflict could flare up again.
Radio Free Europe reports that Georgian officials says that Obama told Medvedev and Putin that the US "would not stand aside" if Russia marched in again. At first glance, this seems odd. Obama stumbled during the presidential campaign last year because of his cautious reaction to Russia’s move and it would be unusual for him to be sounding more bellicose in office than he was on the campaign trail. Also, Obama’s diplomacy so far has been thoroughly realist — it would be more in keeping with his administration’s modus operandi, for it to be looking for some grand bargain with Russia.
But there are some intriguing bits of supporting evidence for the Georgian claim. First, Joe Biden’s recent interview with the WSJ where he made clear that the Russian leadership needed to adapt to the country’s diminished power suggested that Washington was not scared of trying to put Moscow in its place. Second, the Russians are accusing the US of re-arming Georgia, something that suggests some concern on their part about US policy.
With the anniversary of the Russian invasion on Friday, expect sbare-rattling from both sides over the next few days.
Hat Tip: TNR.
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The Bellman
August 5th, 2009 5:24pm Report this commentYou are well behind the curve at CH: the sabres are already rattling, and have been for months. There have been repeated ceasefire violations by S Ossetian militia (with the acquiesence if not active support of Russian units), and a series of he-said-she-said allegations of shelling, moving border posts, blowing bridges, bombs on rail lines and police stations, incursions by military personnel into Georgian villages, between Tskhinvali, Moscow and Tbilisi in the past week. And of course Saakashvili sees (not necessarily witout justification) FSB-backed coup plotters among all the domestic opposition groups. There was a short period post-Obama and Biden when Saakashvili's raging paranoia and Medvedev-Putin's posturing reduced a bit. Otherwise the post-conflict environment is anything but stable.
Russia now maintains around 12,000 troops, substantially re-equipped, reportedly with decent attack aviation, in the two separatist areas. The 58th Army is no longer fighting the Islamist insurgency in Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia (although some of its federal SF units are there), there's a bunch of troops left over from the Cuacasus 09 exercises very close by, and there have been several airspace violations by Russian aircraft.
Additionally, Russia has successfully dismantled the OSCE and UN verification mission in S Ossetia and Abkhazia respectively - I'm no fan of transnational missions, but they were at least a fig-leaf of confidence for Georgia. And the EU monitoring mission is prevented by Russian forces from monitoring beyond the new de facto borders - although it can confirm that there has been no firing from Georgian-held territory in the past few weeks.
If Moscow is really worried about a rearmed Georgia - which is frankly laughable as it has the best part of two brigade's worth of kit within a day's motoring of the capital - its supposedly defensive interests would be better served by allowing the international observer missions to do their work.
The war last year was spun from Moscow using language deliberately intended to create parallels with the west's handling of Kosovo, to make the valid point that western bull-dozing of rules-based law has unpleasat consequences. If you want my best guess, Putin is following the Kosovo lesson with an Iraq one, and is setting Saakashvili up as Saddam, to justify a similar 'sauce for the gander' action. The allegations of re-arming are part of the 'narrative' of Saakashvili as the aggressor. I would not be surprised if there is a serious clash within the next month, which Moscow will use as a justification for an escaltion.
The Laughing Cavalier
August 5th, 2009 5:54pm Report this commentThe Bellman makes some good points. Putin is pursuing an aggressive policy of re-integration towards the old colonies.
seb
August 5th, 2009 7:34pm Report this commentI don't think that Putin wants re-integration. He would prefer to be surrounded by nations ruled by quislings. Sadly, the Russians flunked out of Winning Friends and Influencing People -101 under Peter the Great and getting the Georgians to replace Saakashvili with some glove puppet, were it possible, sends spine-chilling messages to the Baltic States, Ukraine and lots of places with large Russian-speaking minorities. This would be the first stage of the Russian equivalent of a 'charm offensive'. The West's lunatic left believes that Russia is being gradually "surrounded" by bully-boy America and tends to regard Saakashvili as a front-line commando in the service of US-Israeli hegemonists. Putin, a confident sociopath, probably has Obama rightly pegged as the ultimate wimp and is gearing up for a small but decisive bloodbath in Georgia. This will be seen by your average Russian internationalist as payback for bombing Belgrade and 'stealing' Kosovo from the Serbs.
anoneumouse
August 5th, 2009 7:56pm Report this commentThe only sabers that will rattle, are those sheathed in loose fitting scabbards.
porkbelly
August 5th, 2009 10:38pm Report this commentDoes anyone think the shirtless thug brandishing a gun elsewhere on this site would be intimidated by Obama threatening not to "stand aside"? That's a laugh. What could the West do to prevent a Russian invasion designed to depose Saakashvili and install a puppet? Putin knows he would accomplish several of his policy goals: humble the U.S., intimidate his neighbors and string up Saakashvili who he personally loathes. There would be the usual chorus of impotent squeaks from Europe and the U.S. which would only serve to make Putin's manly chest puff out...what does he have to lose?
seb
August 6th, 2009 8:57am Report this commentPorkbelly is right. Vladolf Pootler has nothing to lose in attacking Georgia. Obama, though, runs the risk of looking like a pantywaist to the American public and military if he merely squeaks.
If there is violence, I predict that George Galloway, with the Guardian's blessing, will lead a convoy to the region to bring food and medicine to the innocent Russian victims of the Saakashvili-NATO-inspired genocide.
The Laughing Cavalier
August 6th, 2009 12:06pm Report this commentColony or puppet regime, it amounts to the same thing and the good people of Georgia, already poverished by trade sanctions, will become even worse off as their country is turned into a vassal state paying tribute in agricultural produce to the feudal lords in Moscow.
David Lindsay
August 6th, 2009 5:54pm Report this commentThe Russians were right in this war, and Obama has pretty much said so. Which Western government is giving Georgia so much as the time of day? Nor should they.
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