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Thursday, 6th August 2009

Mandy's path to the premiership

Peter Hoskin 3:30pm

Matthew Norman's article in today's Independent is representative of the growing "PM for PM" movement - "Peter Mandelson for Prime Minister," that is.  And, as such, it sets out one of the more probable routes by which Mandy could ascend to the throne this side of the election:   

"He could ... remove Gordon Brown by deploying a nuclear resignation. Not his own, of course, because the Heseltinian doctrine about crowns and assassins holds good. But he has all the codes, and having persuaded David Miliband not to quit in May, he could easily unpersuade him in October. Assuming the polls remain hideous, and that a wretched party conference provokes a fresh eruption of despair, the hapless Foreign Secretary might leave the Cabinet 'in the interests of the party'. The tears welling up, Mandelson would tell Gordon that he can do no more to save him, and he'd be gone within hours. Ms Armstrong, one of the Blairite cabal of whom Mandy is undisputed leader, could then give up her seat. His lordship could renounce his lordship, be back in the Commons within the month, and Prime Minister by Christmas."

Sure, there are lots of improbables and imponderables in there: this is pretty much the Twilight Zone of political speculation.  But you can't help but wonder whether the current PM will come to regret allowing Lord PM so much influence.

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Andy Leeds

August 6th, 2009 3:39pm Report this comment

Cart before horse dear. Mandelson is a peer and as such it would be impossible for him to be Prime Minister. Were the government to introduce a bill allowing Life Peerages to be disclaimed there is much mischief that could be done with such a bill in the House of Lords. If the Lords threw the bill out it cannot be reintroduced with the Parliament Act in the present session. I doubt very much that she who matters would be very amused at having a week long session merely so this toerag can renounce that which was so recently gained.

paracelsus

August 6th, 2009 3:44pm Report this comment

And the General Election result turns from a rout to an obliteration of the Labour Party.

That really would be a great Christmas present!

Tom

August 6th, 2009 3:46pm Report this comment

The biggest barrier to this is that Peter Mandelson is hated by everyone it seems apart from too many journalists who can't see the wood from the trees.

Publius

August 6th, 2009 3:56pm Report this comment

Oh God, not more Mandy! Except in the Westminster Hothouse, he has no chance.

James

August 6th, 2009 3:56pm Report this comment

The fact that this office should be the gift of the British people means nothing to them. That is why they will be destroyed next Spring. Good riddance to the lot of them.

Liz Brown

August 6th, 2009 4:10pm Report this comment

Who, apart from his chums in the meeja, is calling for PM for PM - it sure as hell isn't me, nor any other person of sound mind

Rob

August 6th, 2009 4:14pm Report this comment

Rubbish. This all assumes that the Government can get the Constitutional Reform Act on the statute book by November to enable Mandy to resign his seat in the Lords. That's not going to happen. It hasn't even been through the Commons yet, let alone the Lords. I think it's probably hoping it can get it through in wash-up period between the election and dissolution. But before Christmas? Forget it.

David Logan

August 6th, 2009 4:15pm Report this comment

It would only be for the good of the party you know. I love the idea that Francis Urquhart is a role model. Matthew Norman is a genius.

Percy

August 6th, 2009 4:15pm Report this comment

"His lordship could renounce his lordship, be back in the Commons within the month, and Prime Minister by Christmas."

And then what?

Florence of Arabia

August 6th, 2009 4:16pm Report this comment

If Peter Mandelson thinks there might be more than 2 1/2 people who would vote for him, he is more deluded than I believe him to be. In fact, he's a lot of things, but Mandelson isn't delusional.

Sliver Light

August 6th, 2009 4:27pm Report this comment

My money is on Stephen Timms pulling through in about five to ten years time - it is always the quiet ones soldiering on in the background, unobtrusively edging themselves into position.

Charles Flaccidwidger

August 6th, 2009 4:30pm Report this comment

I don't think Brown had any choice in how much influence Mandelson has got. In order to save his own neck during the reshuffle debacle, he had to rely on Mandelson to rally the troops behind him. The alternative would have been to stand down from a job that he has craved for so long. Unthinkable to Brown.

Lee Hannaford

August 6th, 2009 4:34pm Report this comment

All I hear is the "Jaws" music.....

Dean

August 6th, 2009 4:52pm Report this comment

Norman's argument, though seductive, suffers from three fatal flaws: 1) Mandelson is unlikely to want to be PM for five months, an even shorter tenure than Gordon Brown; 2) Therefore his assuming the leadership at so late a stage in the Government's life only makes sense if he thinks Labour have a realistic chance of retaining power at the next election - however, there is no evidence whatsoever that Labour's prospects would be improved one iota by having such a controversial, baggage-laden figure as leader (Simpson or Purnell are a different matter); 3)the critical mass of support required to remove Brown cannot be achieved without the backing of a substantial faction in the Party that wishes to move beyond the Blair/Brown era. Mandelson is so closely associated with both men that he simply cannot represent the change this group wants. Ergo he is not the man to replace Brown, even as caretaker.

There is strong reason to believe that James Purnell is the only senior Labour figure who has both the ambition to take on Brown and a serious prospect of improving Labour's electoral chances to the point where they might have a fighting chance of retaining power in a hung Parliament. If Labour are willing to display the necessary ruthlessness by replacing Brown so close to a general election, it is Purnell they will go for. However, everything in the Party's history, traditions and relationships with troubled leaders argues against this being the most likely outcome. They are far more likely to muddle through in the forlorn hope that an improved economic climate next year will restore their fortunes.

Rob C

August 6th, 2009 5:02pm Report this comment

Come on Peter - a SECOND unelected sleazy PM in a row??? I'm pretty sure there would be a civil war! For all his many faults, I personally don't think Mandelson is that stupid and he's more likely to want to be the 'hero' that picks the party up off of the floor after an historical defeat. That said, common sense IS somewhat lacking with this mob and Ego's are well over inflated...

Man in the gallery

August 6th, 2009 5:14pm Report this comment

There is a proposal in the current Constitutional Bill to allow the renunication of peerages.

This Bill has yet to get through the Commons, let alone the Lords, and then pass into law intact.

It will be fascinating to see if the MAndy clause gets through as it currently stands.

Tragic that Norman gets paid a big fat salary for writing this kind of garbage.

Alex

August 6th, 2009 5:44pm Report this comment

And the press ignore the fact he's resigned twice from the Cabinet?

Marbury

August 6th, 2009 5:46pm Report this comment

"You can't help but wonder"...I'm not sure what this mildly camp formulation actually means. You can't help but wonder about PM-for-PM if there's so little actually happening that you're forced to write about 'speculation' that has little or no basis in reality? Well, maybe. But apart from that I'd say you CAN help but wonder about such stuff. If you want to. :)

Alf Tupper

August 6th, 2009 5:47pm Report this comment

The very fact that such a possibility is being discussed here, shows the level of destitution to which the UK political system has sunk.

David Lindsay

August 6th, 2009 5:48pm Report this comment

Peter Mandelson is absolutely guaranteed to lose any seat that Labour finds for him to contest once he has surreally resigned his life peerage.

Not in the North East, not in South Wales, not anywhere is there a constituency that would vote for him, any more than for Tony Blair, who also used to think (and probably still does) that everybody loved him.

Robert

August 6th, 2009 6:37pm Report this comment

James Purnell is a "senior" figure in something ???? Christ on a bike!

2trueblue

August 6th, 2009 7:19pm Report this comment

As stated Mandy is more hated than Brown or Balls so cannot see how he could improve Labours chances. The public have had enough of spin and habits are hard to break, so doubt Mandy is up to it.

TrevorsDen

August 6th, 2009 7:56pm Report this comment

I think Cameron's first question to Brown on the resumption of Parliament is to ask if he wants Conservative help in speeding through the Constitutional Reform Act.

The Conservatives should be doing everything possible to speed the return of Mandelson to the Commons and also looking carefully about how to select a candidate for the seat he might fight.

If the candidate is already selected they should seek to rescind it and get another open primary organised with as many suitable well known faces as possible - someone who could take the fight to Mandelson.

A short time-scale - but The Tories should be ready (if need be) to take the fight to Mandelbum.

But even without all this the inevitable personality clashes which Mandelson's return presaged are breaking through the surface. Well done Gordon.

EC

August 6th, 2009 8:09pm Report this comment

Expect Tony back!

Chuck Unsworth

August 6th, 2009 8:30pm Report this comment

Mandelson is never going to be that obvious. Watch the shadows.

Boudicca

August 6th, 2009 9:57pm Report this comment

I'm with EC on this. I can't see 'Lord' Putrid giving up a seat in the Lords for what appears to be a safe seat in the Commons. With him as PPC, even a safe seat would be vulnerable.

Tony Blair promised to serve a full term as PM. He was forced out of office ... but he could yet make a comeback if Brown resigned on health reasons.

Blair might be a repulsive liar, but I bet he'd love the chance to take on Cameron.

Dirty Euro

August 6th, 2009 10:39pm Report this comment

I think this is Blairites trying to get Milliband to stand. Just games.

2trueblue

August 7th, 2009 12:15am Report this comment

Boudicca, Mr B liar would not exchange his present roles or opportinities, and any way we have Mandy! Also think what he would be giving up........ El President position.....

Karla

August 7th, 2009 5:12am Report this comment

But if Mandy will be PM will we all live happily thereafter?

DM

August 7th, 2009 7:32am Report this comment

I don't know who you think would actually vote for Mandelson in an election. The Westminster village lives in a bubble, not the real world.
I don't know why Mandelson would even put himself through it. He's not stupid, he knows he can't win, but I bet he's loving all this speculation about PM for PM. In fact he's probably feeding you the line in that ever so cunning but charming way. He's as good as PM anyway running the court of King Gordon.

The Laughng Cavalier

August 7th, 2009 10:10am Report this comment

It ought to be a provision of the Bill, if it is brought forward, that a Life Peerage is renounced for ever, and that another one cannot be awarded. That should be enough to deter him, the prospect of havig to rejoin the hoi polloi as plain old Mr Mandelson must be appalling.

DavidLondon

August 7th, 2009 11:53am Report this comment

Can't see this happening. As others have said, Mandelson cann't resign his peerage until the Constitutional Renewal Bill has been passed, which won't happen any time soon (and certainly not before November). Then he would have to find a winnable seat; then win it, which would be quite a job. I can't see the electors in any constituency being impressed if their current MP resigns merely to give Mandelson a shot at the Labour leadership. Then he would have to be elected by the party as Labour leader. Not sure if he could remain a minister all that time. All too uncertain.

Verity

August 7th, 2009 2:28pm Report this comment

Mandelson knows he would finish off Labour if he ran. But, as Chuck Unsworth said, 'Watch the shadows.'

Mandelson has a keen intelligence and he will be putting plans in place, but certainly not to stand for PM.

logdon

August 7th, 2009 4:09pm Report this comment

Maybe he could 'misplace' his birth certificate like another person we know of and stand as president?

Imagine how he'd go down in Pigs Knuckle, Iowa?

Edward McLaughlin

August 7th, 2009 4:53pm Report this comment

logdon

Not just Pigs Knuckle, I reckon he'd go down well just about anywhere

Frank P

August 7th, 2009 6:57pm Report this comment

The Primrose (Hill) path to power? Nah, his petals will drop off after the next election. The perfume will hang around for some time though. Or should that be miasma?

Frank P

August 8th, 2009 11:15am Report this comment

Ed McLaughlin (4.53pm)

Bwaahahahahaha. Wish I'd said that!

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